how long before PS UB and FT drop?

[CrazyEyez]

Oliver,
I completely agree. I think the fight to save poker as we know it is a waste of time. The fight should be for US Gov sanctioned sites, even if that means full disclosure, 1099s, etc. That's the only long term possibility. Let's just get on with it.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

olivert is right. the wild west days will be soon be ending.

[gaboonviper]

Thank you for the positive input zombies. As time passes everyone will see most of my past predictions will come true. Also, FT, Stars, UB, Bodog... all done, just a matter of time. Highly unlikely any of them left by end of 2007 WSOP--probably much sooner.

[Tofu_boy]

I hope it not going to happen. If either stars or FT leave U.S. then people start worry.
Just so many bad news and really none good news since Neteller. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Billman]

Well if you can point me to where I've spread unsubstantiated hysteria that would be useful because I don't believe I have. I will admit to stating things in very blunt and unapologetic terms in an effort to get people's attention but I have not claimed people are going to lose all their money or anything like that.

Also I don't play into the hands of anybody. I disagree with the PPA on several issues and I've stated some of those in public and some I've discussed with Michael in private. I don't feel the carve out is the way to go. Which by the way is funny because supposedly I'm siding with the non-US companies, the PPA, and since FTP is using that email to encourage people to join the PPA which I obviously am siding with then . . . I guess FTP as well. According to you I'm playing into every side's hands :-)

In poker we're taught to look at the long term and not be results oriented but that still doesn't mean you shouldn't pay attention to the hand you're playing right now. And, to be completely honest, that's the advice I see you give out in several threads. Oh don't worry, we'll wait and see how this all pans out. Why wait? Some things are highly probable. Some things have a medium possiblity and some are highly unlikely. Why not prepare and take action to either protect yourself or to profit from the highly probable events? Why should we wait for regs to be published?

You say the only actions that should be taken now is if you're a pro with no savings. Why shouldn't Joe Player be evaluating which sites are more likely to stay than others? Some site's payment options are troubling. Should you ignore that because the regs haven't been published yet or should you take your business to a site that offers more security.

And I do look at the long term. I see a very bright future for online poker for the long term. However, I don't see a very bright future for sites currently offering gaming to US players in the long term. The US has a way of remembering who's given them the finger and I don't think any of those companies is ever going to legally be able to offer gaming in the US. America's funny that way.

But the bottom line is that while you may hate my point of view, you would likely not suffer any ill effects following any of my advice which, to date, has been:

Join organizations like the PPA (if there was others, I would recommend them too)
Vote
Inform your elected reps that you won't vote for them if they don't support online poker
Get the word out to others
Educate yourself
Don't listen to any of these online poker sites blindly
Be very, very careful until this whole thing gets sorted out and expect the worst.

Is any of that hysterical? Is any of that unreasonable?

I don't need to beat my chest. I'm not here to say I'm right. I'm here to at least offer a counter-opinion to all of this overly optimistic crap being flung around as facts or advice from people in the know. Many of the same people claiming that the worst is behind us are the same people who claimed it would be impossible to shut down Netller. I'm not saying you said that (and I'm too lazy to read through your copious posts <grin&gt but certainly many of the folks still offering their expert advice on what's coming up did. Banks couldn't cut off ACH transfers, no way! It's too expensive. Too complex. But somehow they did it. And they did it without the regs.

Now which would have been more prudent:

a) Act blindly thinking you had 270 days to gamble your little heart out

b) Do a little research and find out how vulnerable the payment processing business is and adjust your actions to reflect that fact (e.g. keeping smaller deposits, etc).

Picking "B" doesn't mean you run around like a chicken with it's head cut off, quit playing, go into hibernation, and start stockpiling guns in your bomb shelter. It means you adjust yoru actions based on the risk involved. Many people are not only promoting staying ignorant but intentionally pumping misinformation into the forum as a form of denial. If you can get another people to believe then somehow it seems more reasonable for you to have held the view in the first place.

Starting to see why I'm more than willing to sound a little like chicken little if it might help people avoid making the mistake of picking "A"?

[LuckyTxGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
And I want to address this overall conversation here between those like yourself who are glass empty guys, and those of us who are glass half-full guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

The weatherman predicts heavy rain this afternoon. By lunch time the clouds come rolling in and the wind picks up. Still some people say the weatherman is nuts and as we all know, he's not always right. Darker clouds roll in and we find out it's raining to the north. Nah, it still couldn't rain here, it's just not possible. Oh crap, now it's starting to sprinkle....hmm, well this will just blow over....wait is that rain? Son of a gun. Well the weatherman is still an idiot even though he got lucky with this prediction. What? Now he's predicting severe weather? How could that be, it's just raining, lightning and thundering outside now? It can't get worse than this. The weatherman is an idiot.

You can stand out in the rain getting wet and deny the weatherman was right and keep lieing to yourself because you are a fatal optimist or you can face the facts and admit it will probably get worse before it gets better. Had more people really believed the UIGEA was coming and would be real, something might could have been done to head it off at the pass.

Optimism in a situation like this does nothing to actually help the cause. I was very optimistic up front but once the push for the ban was on, I knew it was going to get ugly. I echoed Bill's sentiments all the while praying I would be wrong. Once the UIGEA was passed I knew our days were numbered, even though the eternal optimist still told us that the UIGEA would do nothing and wouldn't even be enforced. Not only did the online poker empire fall, if fell faster than even I could have guessed.

Then the eternal optimist said that average Joe Fish would not be hindered from jumping through hoops to deposit and redeposit on the 2 major sites left for us to play at. I beg to differ. I dare you to find a FT mirco-limit full ring LHE table with more than 40% of the players seeing the flop. 30% is usually a real stretch. Oh and if you do find a loose table, the waiting list will be 8 people deep. Then the game dries up as the one or two fish bust out and the TAGs take their place. Within 30 minutes PAHUD shows the % has dried up to 22% seeing the flop. The point is, the masses of fish are gone. Just another prediction that sadly came true.

I hate this as much as anyone else. I hope that something can be done to change all of this and the US will step up to allow regulated online poker. I'm trying to be optimistic about that because it is our best chance for the future. I just think that some people take optimism too far and begin lieing to themselves and then consider realist the "glass empty" people.

Just my 2 cents and no need for huge debates directed at me. My position isn't going to change and us arguing won't do any good. I've spoken my peace. Now I'll go back to daydreaming about the good ol' days at Party Poker. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[BluffTHIS!]

Bill,

Caution and skepticism is certainly prudent. I wouldn't argue otherwise. And I follow carefully all the nuances of funding mechanisms. However this overall situation is comprised of several sub-issues, the majority of which have to go against us in order for the current situation as of today not to be availiable to us 6 months from now. You have chosen to believe the direst possibilities will come true. The probability of same is certainly non-zero, but it's not 100% either. In fact a parlay has to occur for that worst case scenario to transpire. The financial regs have to come out in the worst form and be virtually totally effective either in themselves or by influencing hyper self-compliance, they have to have the technical and international means to do so, and the sites have to abandon their current contrary to the DoJ legal interpretations of the IUGEA (or their not caring about the legal risks), and all of them cutoff US players.

I certainly don't mean to portray an overly rosy picture. It is far from that. It's just that I don't believe the government will ulitmately be effective in cutting off all avenues of relatively easy funding/withdrawal options, which factor is likely to be more relevant to whether we have sites to play on in six months than the factor of legal risk those sites may or may not be taking. Intimidation of a few to scare the majority who are mostly beyond their legal reach is a prime strategy of the DoJ.

So I'm not acting blindly like in 6 months it is a surefire thing the current situation will prevail, and neither are the majority of knowledgeable posters here who have closely followed this issue. Your cautions are in fact more appropriate for the rank and file posters of the zoo than the regulars here.

As to the PPA, even if we were assured the worst case scenario would transpire by the end of the year, there is no urgent necessity to support them as is without their addressing legitimate concerns about their organizaional structure, goals and financial transparency. For the long term we need an organization that supports *our* goals, and is *effective* in pursuing them. As I have said before I would like that organization to be the PPA. But as there is no urgent necessity in the short term to ignore those concerns, I'm not supporting them fully until and unless they do adequately address those concerns.

[olivert]

[ QUOTE ]
Oliver,
I completely agree. I think the fight to save poker as we know it is a waste of time. The fight should be for US Gov sanctioned sites, even if that means full disclosure, 1099s, etc. That's the only long term possibility. Let's just get on with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the way the UIGEA is worded, the gaming commission or lottery authority of each U.S. STATE can legally start up its own online poker site that is limited to state residents ONLY.

I would not be surprised if the likes of Progressive Gaming (PGIC for you NASDAQ home gamers) is pitching its software to each of 40+ lottery commissions around the U.S.

As for Nevada: I do know that Stations Casinos has applied for an intrastate online gaming license with the Nevada Gaming Commission for online sports betting. One should not be surprised to see other casinos in Nevada applying to launch intrastate online gaming sites, including online poker, in the next 24-36 months.

The future of online poker, even in the U.S., will likely be government-owned or government-licensed sites serving each state. The potential licensees will also have to be SQUEEKY CLEAN if they want a shot at getting the licenses.

[RoundGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Not only did the online poker empire fall, if fell faster than even I could have guessed.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fell where? I still play online every single night of the week.

[ QUOTE ]
Then the eternal optimist said that average Joe Fish would not be hindered from jumping through hoops to deposit

[/ QUOTE ]
Jump through hoops? You mean all the hoops it takes to reach into my wallet and grab my debit card? Oh, ok.

I guess I'm a fish, relatively speaking. I run well, then get stupid and play above my head, lose, drop down, win again, rinse and repeat.

I'm here and going nowhere. Play on!

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
With the way the UIGEA is worded, the gaming commission or lottery authority of each U.S. STATE can legally start up its own online poker site that is limited to state residents ONLY.

[/ QUOTE ]


olivert,

Your legal interpretation is slightly off here. The states don't possess the right to allow intra-state online gambling because of the permissive largesse of the federal government through the IUGEA, but rather constitutionally already possessed that right which the federal government cannot take away even under the broadest interpretation of the commerce clause. Indeed, the IUGEA depends for much of any effective force it might have upon state law regarding gaming.