How can you not go busto?

[sethypooh21]

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'The point is that if you are a basic winning player, playing against the same opposition, then it can be calculated, before you start playing, that you are very unlikely to go busto if you have 20BI.'

I recall that Brian Townsend (far better than a basic winning player) went on a 20BI downswing at Crypto £80/160 (dumping $320,000) when working his way up.

I had a 28 buy-in downswing in my first 6 months of playing, and have had a 15 BI downswing as recently as May, and I pretty much fit the 'basic winning player' category exactly. The issue of course is that after a downswing of, say 8BI's, which is trivially likely at some point, your A game is often pretty much gone and tilting off another few BI's is pretty easy. Then if you only had 20BI's to start you're in busto range.


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This is a fairly common misunderstanding.

The math that shows that you are very unlikely to go bust with a 20BI bankroll assumes that you are starting with 20BI and playing that limit to infinity, never withdrawing and never moving up. It doesn't mean that you are very unlikely to have a 20BI downswing, it means that you are unlikely to have a 20BI downswing straight away. If you are a winning player, the chances are that by the time you have your 20BI downswing, you will have more than 20BI in your account.

For reference, if you have a 20BI bankroll and withdraw down to 20BI at the end of every day when you make money, your chance of going busto at some stage is almost 100%.

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That doesn't sound right. As long as you're not withdrawing below 20 buyins I would think you'd be fine (a good player). I suppose over a lifetime even a good player playing very high volume could hit that kind of variance, but it seems unlikely.

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It may not sound right, but it is. Maths of poker discusses this.

[antisocialgrace]

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'The point is that if you are a basic winning player, playing against the same opposition, then it can be calculated, before you start playing, that you are very unlikely to go busto if you have 20BI.'

I recall that Brian Townsend (far better than a basic winning player) went on a 20BI downswing at Crypto £80/160 (dumping $320,000) when working his way up.

I had a 28 buy-in downswing in my first 6 months of playing, and have had a 15 BI downswing as recently as May, and I pretty much fit the 'basic winning player' category exactly. The issue of course is that after a downswing of, say 8BI's, which is trivially likely at some point, your A game is often pretty much gone and tilting off another few BI's is pretty easy. Then if you only had 20BI's to start you're in busto range.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fairly common misunderstanding.

The math that shows that you are very unlikely to go bust with a 20BI bankroll assumes that you are starting with 20BI and playing that limit to infinity, never withdrawing and never moving up. It doesn't mean that you are very unlikely to have a 20BI downswing, it means that you are unlikely to have a 20BI downswing straight away. If you are a winning player, the chances are that by the time you have your 20BI downswing, you will have more than 20BI in your account.

For reference, if you have a 20BI bankroll and withdraw down to 20BI at the end of every day when you make money, your chance of going busto at some stage is almost 100%.

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That doesn't sound right. As long as you're not withdrawing below 20 buyins I would think you'd be fine (a good player). I suppose over a lifetime even a good player playing very high volume could hit that kind of variance, but it seems unlikely.

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It may not sound right, but it is. Maths of poker discusses this.

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Yeah I guess it only has to happen once, and it could happen over a dozen up and down sessions if there were no adjustment in the stakes. I think it's very highly unlikely in the short term however, certainly not worth being concerned about

[Python49]

The real question is how exactly CAN you go busto? If you are always moving down when you hit 10 buyins or whatever you set your limit at.. then that means you will ALWAYS have 10 buyins for whatever game you're playing, even if it theoretically means dropping down to $5 nl. Going busto means you simply didn't move down or have any self control.

[Kowalski]

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I dont ever see how 20BI is enough for any lvl above nl50
( no did this not happen to me )

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Unless you are perpetually running hot, 20 BI isn't enough.

[evagaba]

I want at least 25 BI before even talking shots at a level.

And that is one-tabling...

[Oliver Nipples]

If it's my entire roll, 4K is the bare minimum to even sit at a NL100 game. 10K for NL200.

[sethypooh21]

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'The point is that if you are a basic winning player, playing against the same opposition, then it can be calculated, before you start playing, that you are very unlikely to go busto if you have 20BI.'

I recall that Brian Townsend (far better than a basic winning player) went on a 20BI downswing at Crypto £80/160 (dumping $320,000) when working his way up.

I had a 28 buy-in downswing in my first 6 months of playing, and have had a 15 BI downswing as recently as May, and I pretty much fit the 'basic winning player' category exactly. The issue of course is that after a downswing of, say 8BI's, which is trivially likely at some point, your A game is often pretty much gone and tilting off another few BI's is pretty easy. Then if you only had 20BI's to start you're in busto range.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fairly common misunderstanding.

The math that shows that you are very unlikely to go bust with a 20BI bankroll assumes that you are starting with 20BI and playing that limit to infinity, never withdrawing and never moving up. It doesn't mean that you are very unlikely to have a 20BI downswing, it means that you are unlikely to have a 20BI downswing straight away. If you are a winning player, the chances are that by the time you have your 20BI downswing, you will have more than 20BI in your account.

For reference, if you have a 20BI bankroll and withdraw down to 20BI at the end of every day when you make money, your chance of going busto at some stage is almost 100%.

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That doesn't sound right. As long as you're not withdrawing below 20 buyins I would think you'd be fine (a good player). I suppose over a lifetime even a good player playing very high volume could hit that kind of variance, but it seems unlikely.

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It may not sound right, but it is. Maths of poker discusses this.

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Yeah I guess it only has to happen once, and it could happen over a dozen up and down sessions if there were no adjustment in the stakes. I think it's very highly unlikely in the short term however, certainly not worth being concerned about

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You're certainly incorrect to not be concerned.

[notreallymyname]

The only reason your real risk of ruin isn't 100% if you withdraw everything over a certain line every day is that you're probably not going to live forever or continue playing poker forever if you do. The mathematics to prove this isn't difficult.