16: Bubble SnG standard right?

[Shillx]

Why am I not suprised that everyone is just blindly stabbing at the right play (and most are wrong). You want him to call if you have more then 87% equity and his combined equity on flops that he folds will almost certainly be higher then 13%. You want him to fold a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] so the only way that pushing can be correct is if he basically folds just no pair/no draw/no overs to the ten. Obviously if you mix those hands with some other hands (like A9) it will be close to the 13% mark but you have to consider his range and determine if he can have hands like 74o and 43s. Against someone on a reasonable range (say 40%) this is a very clear SNG as you won't run into that many hands that meet the critiera.

The only way that pushing PF can be correct is if you think that he will fold (it's possible). It gets real complicated if you have some FE pre-flop because getting him to fold there is much better then getting him to fold on the flop. So he doesn't have to do it very often to make it right but if you assume that he will never fold then you have to SNG this.

Finn,

Unknown villain is going to have 2 cards>T more often than at least one<T.

This is a really silly thing to say since it is an easy fold PF in this case. I might just fold PF anyway but it is tough to say given that the OP didn't mention anything.

[Kevin8423]

You want him to fold A9 when?? I hope not pf, and definitley not if he misses the flop with it. I don't see how this can be a SnG, you aren't playing hands much lower than TT here, they have infinite odds to call your flop bet and the only hands they fold are hands that you want them to call with. It just doesn't make sense.

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
You want him to fold A9 when?? I hope not pf, and definitley not if he misses the flop with it. I don't see how this can be a SnG, you aren't playing hands much lower than TT here, they have infinite odds to call your flop bet and the only hands they fold are hands that you want them to call with. It just doesn't make sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

if this is prebubble (say 6 handed), than yes, for sure push preflop because you want all the chips in the middle when he has A9 and misses the flop (K83 rainbow). it is the most +Cev for you and prebubble cev is reasonably close to $ev.

on the bubble like this, cev can be very far from $ev. you even if he is drawing a bit thin, you may rather pick up the pot rather than risk bubbling. so if he has Ac9c and the flop is Kd8c7s, getting him to fold can be very beneficial. villian has 20% pot equity with this board.

if i understand Shillx correctly, you want villian to fold anything in which he has 13% equity or more postflop. so with this type of board getting villian to fold via a stop n go is the correct play.

even Ac9c on a Jc7s4d has 18% equity.

and in this hand i think you have about 1-2% FE preflop.

[loxxii]

wow this turned out to be a very good post. beware the -EV of bubbling. I know that I only want villian to see 3 cards, hence trhe SnG.

I dont understand why we fold TT preflop if we know villian has QJo preflop.

[LeadbellyDan]

Were the antes on? I think its a fold if theyr not against most 16s villains. Also I agree with what Kevin said and didnt understand what shillx wrote.

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
wow this turned out to be a very good post. beware the -EV of bubbling. I know that I only want villian to see 3 cards, hence trhe SnG.

I dont understand why we fold TT preflop if we know villian has QJo preflop.

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I fold. It's pretty basic SNG strategy methinks. I can't see shoving being very good.

Calling if we knew he had QJ would be really really bad.

[loxxii]

ok, what do we not fold here?

[Austiger]

I think JJ is good enough. You want to be dominating his range, not just be ahead of it. The chances you are dominating him goes way up with each step up the ladder: TT...JJ...QQ...

QQ would definitely be a push and AK would definitely be a fold. I think it's safe to say that you could sleep at night knowing that pushing JJ couldn't be bad.

[Shillx]

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Were the antes on? I think its a fold if theyr not against most 16s villains. Also I agree with what Kevin said and didnt understand what shillx wrote.

[/ QUOTE ]

You want him to fold A9 when?? I hope not pf

If you can't see why this is way off, you will have a tough time at this game. He is getting 3:1 so you want him to fold this [censored] in a cash game, SNG, MTT...anything that isn't a loser takes all.

[Tooorero86]

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QQ would definitely be a push and AK would definitely be a fold.

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wtf i push AK allday here, is this wronk ?