A question for those who study the NFL draft

[prohornblower]

How would the system project 48 GS and 61.4%?

[bonds]

How do you factor in injuries when you assess predictibility? For a not-insignificant number of "busts", their suckiness was driven in part by injury. See, e.g., Enis. Position may well be correlated with injury risk which in turn is correlated with bust potential.

[VarlosZ]

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How would the system project 48 GS and 61.4%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well, I'm sure. The system gives results in projected DPAR (Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement) per Game. Looking for a comparable player, Peyton Manning started 45 games and completed 62.5% of his passes, so the projection for the numbers you give, all things being equal, would probably be about the same: 6.34 DPAR per game, or value you'd expect from one of the top QBs in the league.


So, I'm guessing that those are the numbers of some horrible NFL bust, yes?

[prohornblower]

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How would the system project 48 GS and 61.4%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well, I'm sure. The system gives results in projected DPAR (Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement) per Game. Looking for a comparable player, Peyton Manning started 45 games and completed 62.5% of his passes, so the projection for the numbers you give, all things being equal, would probably be about the same: 6.34 DPAR per game, or value you'd expect from one of the top QBs in the league.


So, I'm guessing that those are the numbers of some horrible NFL bust, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. No, they are Kevin Kolb's numbers. He's Houston's QB (my alma mater). I know C-USA isn't exactly a powerhouse conference though, but those are his numbers as a 4 year starter. Would be cool if he gets drafted high and became a good NFL QB, since our football program has been sub-par for years.

[SoloAJ]

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I bet the projection system will love Chris Leak. 4-year starter, >60 career completion%.

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I thought it was pretty well-expected that Leak won't even have the chance to be a bust. Am I wrong about this or what that your point?

[tolbiny]

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Here's the FO article that first introduced the QB projection system. The chapter in the book is much more in depth.

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Good article, thanks. I assume that Troy Smith looks pretty good then as a pro QB. 63% completion percentage over 656 attempts (~22 starts at 30 attempts per start).

[Jack of Arcades]

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How would the system project 48 GS and 61.4%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Very well, I'm sure. The system gives results in projected DPAR (Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement) per Game. Looking for a comparable player, Peyton Manning started 45 games and completed 62.5% of his passes, so the projection for the numbers you give, all things being equal, would probably be about the same: 6.34 DPAR per game, or value you'd expect from one of the top QBs in the league.


So, I'm guessing that those are the numbers of some horrible NFL bust, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. No, they are Kevin Kolb's numbers. He's Houston's QB (my alma mater). I know C-USA isn't exactly a powerhouse conference though, but those are his numbers as a 4 year starter. Would be cool if he gets drafted high and became a good NFL QB, since our football program has been sub-par for years.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kolb isn't expected to be drafted in the first two rounds, though. There's a well-known and welcomed selection bias in these stats.