300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...

[RainbowBright]

I don't know why no one has suggested betting 1/3 of the pot and calling a shove. It looks more like a blocking bet that is intending to fold to a shove (that got scared on the river when the straight draw came in). Thinking Villain's will be more willing to bluff the blocking bet.

It also might get a call out of a hand like 65,54,75,78,68 which are all possible hands from Villain which will be willing to call a small bet on the river but not a big one.

As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.

[Paul Thomson]

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I don't know why no one has suggested betting 1/3 of the pot and calling a shove. It looks more like a blocking bet that is intending to fold to a shove (that got scared on the river when the straight draw came in). Thinking Villain's will be more willing to bluff the blocking bet.

It also might get a call out of a hand like 65,54,75,78,68 which are all possible hands from Villain which will be willing to call a small bet on the river but not a big one.

As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.

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[Nick Royale]

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As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.


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I think many doesn't weight in how much the size of the riverbet effects his range. I'm expect him to use the pot- or 1/2-pot button if he bluffs 99%.

[RainbowBright]

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As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.


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I think many doesn't weight in how much the size of the riverbet effects his range. I'm expect him to use the pot- or 1/2-pot button if he bluffs 99%.

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Why do you think he uses the pot button for bluffs and shoves with the nuts?

So are you suggesting that he only overbet shoves with the nuts? If so, then why are you calling? And if that's the case, then his bet sizing is obviously exploitable. So the question becomes irrelevant because he only over bets the river with a single type of hand.

However, if you assume that he overbets shoves with both his bluffs and the nuts (which he obviously should to balance his plays), then you should begin to determine the possible range of his hands.

[Nick Royale]

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Why do you think he uses the pot button for bluffs and shoves with the nuts?

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Donks often use these, but my point was that I think his bluff will be in the 1/2-pot to potsize range 99%.


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So are you suggesting that he only overbet shoves with the nuts? If so, then why are you calling?

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Ok, so I'm saying this again. I have a very limited experience when it comes to overbet-pushes, that's why I posted this. Ime an overbet-push is nuts or close to it more often than air, but this seems like a decent place to call because there's so many busted draws possible.

[BGnight]

I find overbet shoves like this to rarely be bluffs. I really feel 89, TT, or a tricky QQ or other set is showing up. He's 50/10, so he probably doesn't care about slowplaying on a vulnerable board.
For those that suggested betting 1/3 pot and calling shove, this is horrible imo. 50/10's aren't bluffraising blocking bets imo.

[SilentNoise]

i snap call and feel good about it. the only hand i think villain may play like this is 58clubs,89 maybe 58o, and then a load of busted draws any other made hand like higher two pair / set would have surely raised the flop/turn with such a wet board.

note: i have 27% wtsd and 50.5% won$@sd...so im obv a bit of a station

[jc1418]

J fish posted a hand yesterday in mid stakes where villain overbet shoved for 3x pot on a less drawy board but i would be more inclined to call his hand with top pair, than your hand. More often than not you should be calling overbets on drawy boards, but sometimes other things like a funky betting pattern have more weight on my decision than board texture. You are right about stack sizes I guess it really shouldnt matter when trying to induce. I def am losing value on my hands against this type of opponent when blocking the river this deep. I guess the best play is to induce and fold to a bet of this size, just hope I can do that. Thanks nick good thread, i actually started blocking rivers this deep to avoid these situations, prob should change that and be disciplined enuf to lay it down when this happens.

[RainbowBright]

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Why do you think he uses the pot button for bluffs and shoves with the nuts?

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Donks often use these, but my point was that I think his bluff will be in the 1/2-pot to potsize range 99%.


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So are you suggesting that he only overbet shoves with the nuts? If so, then why are you calling?

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Ok, so I'm saying this again. I have a very limited experience when it comes to overbet-pushes, that's why I posted this. Ime an overbet-push is nuts or close to it more often than air, but this seems like a decent place to call because there's so many busted draws possible.

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To be honest, since 89o is in his preflop range. This looks to be a fold given that there are nearly as many made hands at flush draws and he probably plays his combo draws more aggressively some % of the time.

Nonetheless, I think the way you have to look at it is considering frequency in terms of ranges which you seem to be doing.

[Etats360]

I vomit profusely and then call river.