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#31
11-27-2006, 11:07 AM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
It's pretty clear that BI has aces here, (mathematically unlikely, but highly probable given the action if that makes any sense) so I think the most interesting point of contention is what to do on third after you find this out. Before just jamming, I think you need to develop a hypothesis of what seat 8 is likely to do if you jam. My immediate read is that he is on a flush draw and that he is not going to give it up on third no matter what you do.
If it was me on a totally live flush draw I am happy to have a guy in second place jamming the pot three way. If you force me to call multiple bets on third, then you make the pot so big on fourth that many players will call fourth even if they brick, and hearts stay live. It is not even such a bad play. So I think a case can be made by easing up on third, hoping seat 8 bricks on fourth, and then hitting him with the check raise. I think you have a better shot of getting it heads up with that approach. If he hits another heart, then you need to seriously consider check folding on fourth, cause he is seeing the river and you are in second place with a good chance you will end up third in a real expensive pot. 
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#34
11-27-2006, 11:44 AM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
To Istream
So after the BI raises, and we put him on Aces, what are the chances of winning this pot? Are we better off HU or 3 way? 3 way its about 31%, HU its 43% and thats if he has Aces. Now seat 8, if on a flush draw, is about 23% and is in 3rd place. You RR here because you force a 23% player to make a decision and to gain information about the BIs hand. Capping here makes the flush draw feel very uneasy, beacuse he's thinking Aces and Kings, and he clearly is in 3rd place. If he puts in the Cap then the 4th Street becomes very important, he needs a good card because if the kings are going to Cap 3rd then he'll Cap 4th too. The Aces and Kings do not need good cards to continue, but he does. If fact his chances are better if he had a pair of 9s, its goes to 27%(I think). If he pays the full price here and 4th, this hand is +EV for the Kings, even if the BI has Aces. Now what you gain here with Aces is, he can't improve without you knowing it. In otherwords he'll pay off in full, when you catch, while you can get out without when ever he improves. In addition, the live J is very nice in this situation.
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#35
11-27-2006, 12:06 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
Bradley?? Trying to be polite and nice, you know friendly. Like at the stud tables, "changing gears", "mixing it up" or whatever. You no like? My friends call me "Charlie" but if you need to be more formal, "Lord Soaper" is fine. Whatever makes you comfortable.
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#36
11-27-2006, 12:07 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty clear that BI has aces here, (mathematically unlikely, but highly probable given the action if that makes any sense) so I think the most interesting point of contention is what to do on third after you find this out. Before just jamming, I think you need to develop a hypothesis of what seat 8 is likely to do if you jam. My immediate read is that he is on a flush draw and that he is not going to give it up on third no matter what you do. If it was me on a totally live flush draw I am happy to have a guy in second place jamming the pot three way. If you force me to call multiple bets on third, then you make the pot so big on fourth that many players will call fourth even if they brick, and hearts stay live. It is not even such a bad play. So I think a case can be made by easing up on third, hoping seat 8 bricks on fourth, and then hitting him with the check raise. I think you have a better shot of getting it heads up with that approach. If he hits another heart, then you need to seriously consider check folding on fourth, cause he is seeing the river and you are in second place with a good chance you will end up third in a real expensive pot. [/ QUOTE ] wow this thread got off topic. Let me just say that from what I know at many hand levels 2-4 up to 10-20 pound, CPA is a very tight solid player...code name Charlie, he is a civilian contractor so you dont salute him, but you better listen to him, because the pentagon listens to him about your performance...blah blah blah I was inverted. Ok back to the hand after a slight top gun digression: I don't think you can quite give him aces yet on 3rd given all the nutjobs that play that game. he could have a lower pocket pair and not be giving credit for Kings...I see that all the time. You have 2 goals early on in the hand though....either look back to electrical's post on the first page which I think is on point, or continue on here.... you want to 1) find out what the hell the reraiser has and 2) get the 3rd player out of the pot. I totally agree with lstream here that 3-betting third is probably not going to acomplish either of these goals. I think check-raise is best on 4th because you are going to see a bet from the re-raiser almost every time, so you know you have the chance to get your two goals accomplished. If seat 8 calls 2 cold, you can lower the possibility he is on a flush draw significantly and then you can put him on a big pair maybe which is lower than yours most of the time (still be wary of his suit though if he catches 5th). If the bettor comes back at you on 4th there are really only two possibilities: aces or diamonds...I would lean towards aces given the dead suit and play accordingly. I am not sure I would check-fold if seat 8 catches a suited card on 4th and would probably play on to the reraise and fold if the aces pair up or if there is some more significant heat if you can't get seat 8 out. I think not putting in another bet on 3rd might cost a little bit in dollar figures but I think the information you can gain on 4th might make the hand play a lot easier. Check-call on 4th just simply can't be right though. As for the river, a bet is a judgment call and I think you need some kind of read. If you don't think you will get raised when he has aces up then bet because the avg player will pay off their unimproved aces...if you are worried about it getting jacked up then checking is prudent if you don't want to face the decision of folding Ks and Qs.
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#37
11-27-2006, 12:30 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
[ QUOTE ]
Bradley?? Trying to be polite and nice, you know friendly. Like at the stud tables, "changing gears", "mixing it up" or whatever. You no like? My friends call me "Charlie" but if you need to be more formal, "Lord Soaper" is fine. Whatever makes you comfortable. [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm...you assume my name is Bradley. Interesting... You also didn't answer my other question Professor? How did I play???
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#38
11-27-2006, 01:56 PM
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Re: Im thinking i played the right??
To Bradley. Just peachy
To PoorLawyer The only problem with the CR on 4th is what if seat 6 checks right behind you, free cards for seat 6 and 8. Force seat 8 into a decision, his 4th St card is terrible, then deal with seat 8. I would hate to think I had the best hand on 4th and gave free cards. He could have a pair of 3s with an A kicker. I have a problem with giving free cards in general, but to give a free ride to seat 8 is a mistake.
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