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#31
11-20-2006, 10:17 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
[ QUOTE ]
the HU cap vs no cap is like the 5-bet cap vs the 4-bet cap we were talking about when you were here. ps 34C here today. [/ QUOTE ] 34F here 
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#32
11-20-2006, 10:42 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
I'm capping here because, given that it is 5-handed, he should have raised 99 UTG. It is much more likely that he limped 44 or 66. Even if he raised 44 and 66 here, than we should still be raising since it's correct 2/3 of the time.
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#34
11-20-2006, 10:45 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping here because, given that it is 5-handed, he should have raised 99 UTG. It is much more likely that he limped 44 or 66. Even if he raised 44 and 66 here, than we should still be raising since it's correct 2/3 of the time. [/ QUOTE ] i only need to be correct more than 50% of the time to cap correctly.
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#35
11-20-2006, 10:47 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
[ QUOTE ]
"what's a semi-rational player's range here?" most likely 99 or possibly 99 with an outside chance of 99. [/ QUOTE ] are you second leveling and making fun of me for assuming that a party donk is semi-rational?
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#37
11-20-2006, 10:49 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that was my point. Since 66 > 50, we should cap. Sorry if I wasn't clear. [/ QUOTE ] where are you getting 66 then?
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#38
11-20-2006, 10:55 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
44, 66, and 99 with equal probability. You're ahead 66% of the time.
Edit: This is wrong, since 99 is now much less likely from Bayesian perspective. The correct number should be 6/7, not (2/3)
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#39
11-20-2006, 11:11 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
[ QUOTE ]
44, 66, and 99 with equal probability. You're ahead 66% of the time. Edit: This is wrong, since 99 is now much less likely from Bayesian perspective. The correct number should be 6/7, not (2/3) [/ QUOTE ] there's less combos of 99, but i'd argue that you have to discount 44 and 66 a lot when he 3-bets the river.
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#40
11-20-2006, 11:19 PM
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Re: am i a moron or a genius? - pretty boring hand
"are you second leveling"
no. i think he has 99. he might have K9 i guess or 66 or AA but i really dont think so. i like the call of the 3 bet on the river.
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