OFFICIAL WORLD SERIES! - Boston Redsox vs Colorado Rockies

[Nez477]

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Left Field: Man-Ram>>Holliday


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No way. Sorry you don't see Holliday on TV too much.

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Um.... I watch Holliday all the time. Man-Ram is a better bat

Add in defense and Holliday>>Man-Ram

But pure batting, I'd rather have Ramirez

[MuresanForMVP]

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Left Field: Man-Ram>>Holliday


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No way. Sorry you don't see Holliday on TV too much.

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He's a Rockies fan, and Ramirez is better than Holliday

[Constable]

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for BP readers, Nate's breakdown of the series is up.

great stuff as usual

web page

he touches on something I said above - Rockies pitchers used to dabbling outside the strike zone with meh stuff are going to have an awfully tough time with the Sox lineup. I'm seeing lots of walks, lots of contact, and not a lot of K's for the Red Sox

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I wonder if this will be as accurate as when he predicted that the D-Backs were going to beat the Rockies in 7 and Webb was going to become the first pitcher to win 3 games in a series.

Oops.

[One Outer]

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I have two tickets to Game 2 at Fenway. I live in So.California with my 7-month pregnant wife. I am in a pickle.

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7, and even if it was 9....easy choice, bye honey.

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FYP

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i just added up total VORP for the lineups, it's basically dead even, which surprised me. it's skewed because ellsbury's VORP is as a LF, when he's more valuable in CF, but still, i didn't think it would be that close.

VORP doesn't weight recent performance, which i think needs to be considered here - specifically regarding manny and drew regressing to their career norms, and, to a lesser extent, how both teams are hitting as a whole.

one of the things nate explains is that BP's 'secret sauce' formula strongly favors teams with power pitching in the postseason, whereas even advanced regular season metrics might not capture that very well. this is due to the fact that you tend to face better offenses in the postseason. this is why the pitching favors the red sox, probably even more decisively than the stats indicate (which is pretty decisive already).

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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i just added up total VORP for the lineups, it's basically dead even, which surprised me. it's skewed because ellsbury's VORP is as a LF, when he's more valuable in CF, but still, i didn't think it would be that close.

VORP doesn't weight recent performance, which i think needs to be considered here - specifically regarding manny and drew regressing to their career norms, and, to a lesser extent, how both teams are hitting as a whole.

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VORP is also cumulative; ie playing time factors in. So a guy like Ryan Braun who was off the charts, but didn't play for the whole year, doesn't get a league leading VORP. ditto for Ellbury. Manny also missed a month, which hurts.

[NT!]

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First Base: Helton>Youk
Second Base: Pedroia>>Matsui
Short Stop: Tulo>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>Lugo
Third Base: Lowell>>>Atkins
Left Field: Man-Ram>>Holliday
Center Field: Tavaras=Pillsbury
Right Field: Hawpe>>>>Drew

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the only ones i quarrel with to any real extent are the last two. i think hawpe is likely to be a little better than drew, and i think ellsbury is a little better than taveras.

drew has struggled this year but is hitting well right now, and his career numbers would indicate he's roughly equivalent to hawpe. also, he does well against the type of pitchers the rockies are going to throw at him - mostly nibblers without a dominant K:BB, where is patience will pay off.

ellsbury is as fast as taveras (if not faster), is a better hitter and plays a very good CF.

also, tek >>>> yorvit
and ortiz >>>>> anybody the rockies will put at DH

[NT!]

forgot about manny missing time, that's a good point

somebody should come up with a VORP / games played average for each lineup, but i'm lazy

[kyro]

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for BP readers, Nate's breakdown of the series is up.

great stuff as usual

web page

he touches on something I said above - Rockies pitchers used to dabbling outside the strike zone with meh stuff are going to have an awfully tough time with the Sox lineup. I'm seeing lots of walks, lots of contact, and not a lot of K's for the Red Sox

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He says Beckett loses both his starts, and Matsuzaka wins both of his including a Game 7 shutout. Man, talk about going way out on a limb.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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[ QUOTE ]
for BP readers, Nate's breakdown of the series is up.

great stuff as usual

web page

he touches on something I said above - Rockies pitchers used to dabbling outside the strike zone with meh stuff are going to have an awfully tough time with the Sox lineup. I'm seeing lots of walks, lots of contact, and not a lot of K's for the Red Sox

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He says Beckett loses both his starts, and Matsuzaka wins both of his including a Game 7 shutout. Man, talk about going way out on a limb.

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I think that prediction part was largely tongue in cheek. I man, he can't seriously predict a blown save in game 6.