College Football Week 12

[xorbie]

Wow this Cumberland kid good be a legit WR. So big.

[JaredL]

I don't quite get all the Hawai'i hate here. They didn't play their star quarterback and managed to squeak out a win on the road. It wasn't a hugely impressive win or anything but saying stuff like " any top twelve team rolls nevada by three scores" doesn't make sense with Brennan out.

Maybe I'm overreacting to the Oregon game. We have shown this year that with Dixon we are a top team nationally but at least based on the huge one-game sample we are probably 6th or 7th best in the Pac 10 without him.

I don't think Hawai'i is deserving of being in the national title game but I think it's hard to say where they belong below. They have a good offense and I think with Brennan would give all but the elite defenses big problems. On the other side they have a Wac defense, so they are going to give up loads of points against top teams.

With their schedule it's hard to say how they should be ranked. Another big part of the problem is travel. This cuts both ways. They have to go basically the equivalent of a west coast to east coast flight for all of their away games. Their opponents do the same for their home games. I think this is a huge factor.

[Semtex]

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I don't quite get all the Hawai'i hate here. They didn't play their star quarterback and managed to squeak out a win on the road. It wasn't a hugely impressive win or anything but saying stuff like " any top twelve team rolls nevada by three scores" doesn't make sense with Brennan out.

Maybe I'm overreacting to the Oregon game. We have shown this year that with Dixon we are a top team nationally but at least based on the huge one-game sample we are probably 6th or 7th best in the Pac 10 without him.

I don't think Hawai'i is deserving of being in the national title game but I think it's hard to say where they belong below. They have a good offense and I think with Brennan would give all but the elite defenses big problems. On the other side they have a Wac defense, so they are going to give up loads of points against top teams.

With their schedule it's hard to say how they should be ranked. Another big part of the problem is travel. This cuts both ways. They have to go basically the equivalent of a west coast to east coast flight for all of their away games. Their opponents do the same for their home games. I think this is a huge factor.

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Agree with this. If they win out I think they deserve a BCS game for sure.

[Needle77]

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Agree with this. If they win out I think they deserve a BCS game for sure.

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Especially with how this year of college football has gone. I want BSU to win so that we have the possibility of a mid-major with one loss going into the BCS, but I always want a mid-major in the BCS each year. I want them in if they win out.

[Gregatron]

Let's go Duke!!

[BobJoeJim]

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With their schedule it's hard to say how they should be ranked.

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It's really not that hard. Here are the five teams they've played on the road, with Sagarin's predictor ratings in parenthesis:
Louisiana Tech (62.71, #91)
UNLV (63.00, #96)
Idaho (53.99, #137)
San Jose State (59.27, #112)
Nevada (64.58, #90) - best opponent

And at home (excluding the 1-AA opponents who are both low end for their lower division) they've played:
Utah State (55.44, #131)
New Mexico State (53.26, #144)
Fresno State (70.27, #67) - best opponent

So on the road against opponents with an average rating of 60.71 (toughest opponent ranked 90th), and they won by an average margin of 14.6. At home against opponents with an average rating of 59.66 they won by an average of 19.67. So the home and road schedules have been pretty evenly balanced in difficulty, and they've done 5 points better at home (indicating a 2.5 point HFA, less than the generally accepted average of 3), and it's clear that they are approximately 17 points better than their average opponent, which puts them at the 79 predictor rating that Sagarin gives them. This leaves them 8 points behind #10 ASU, and 13 points behind #5 Ohio State.

In other words, the gap between Hawaii and a true top five team is only for points smaller than the gap between Hawaii and the average Hawaii opponent, only one of whom is in the top 90 nationally.

Hawaii isn't a *terrible* team or anything, but they are NOT one of the 25 best teams in the country. At least, not based on what they've done so far. Wins over Boise and Washington (both of whom are significantly better than Fresno, who is currently Hawaii's best win), will of course change this assessment somewhat. Right now I consider Hawaii to be on the outside looking in of the top 25, probably about 30th-40th, in terms of "best" teams. If they finish undefeated, I'll probably have them in the 15-20 range by the end though. Right now I just don't think they're good enough to beat Boise at home.

Of course the BCS is about more than who's "best", it's also about who's "most deserving" and being undefeated counts toward that quite a bit. I firmly agree that IF they win out, Hawaii deserves to play in a BCS game (not the title game). I don't expect that to be a relevant discussion after they play Boise though.

[orange]

I'm fairly sure if Hawaii beats BSU/Washington, they will go to a BCS bowl. Washington is like 3-7 and BSU LOST to UW. UW is not a very good team RIGHT NOW (I think they will be better in the near future, I'm sortve a UW fan). With a 3-7 team being your 'quality win' of the season, that is just a bit too much for me. UH has fun offense and are somewhat overlooked by KU as the 'feel good team' of '07, but I seriously do not think they can compete with a top 25 team.

[Needle77]

Jesus, Rutgers is going to make me snap.

[Mediocre_Player]

musberger is an annoying PBP guy, but I love his hidden references to the point spread, ratings, and which network is going to get certain bowl games (ie pulling for OSU to get in the Rose since that's all ABC has)

[Needle77]

Weird, Rutgers starts moving the ball again once Teel comes into the game. So strange?? Schiano you are a jackass.