2008 Presidential primaries thread

[Dids]

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If any somewhat moderate(peoples minds...not reality) male rep gets nominated--Mccain/Rudy/Hagel/etc...Hillary is toast.

A large portion of the dem/indep male population will tell pollers and their wives that they voted for Hillary, when they really punched the ticket for the other GUY.

Hillary can only win against a hardcore social conservative.
The Reps are praying she is the nominee.

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I think posts/reasoning like this don't give people nearly enough credit.

Hilary would be a very polarizing candidate, but it seems more likely that you'll see people vote down party lines (witness the most recent election) than you'll see men wigging out because of some fear of Hilary.

[kipin]

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Unless the streets of America become filled with millions of homeless people within the next two years, Guiliani has no chance of being elected President.

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Reasoning behind this statement????

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I could see this going two ways.

1) Guiliani cleaned up the streets of New York. Bussed bums out of the city, etc. So he could propose a plan to clean up the U.S.

2) Democrats control Congress, if the economy turns sour people will be out of work and want to blame the Democrats in turn voting for the Republican candidate.

Hopefully one of those two is the reasoning behind Sam's statement.

[adios]

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I see Hillary's real problem as not squashing Obama early. If he gets close, she'll have to move so far left to win the nomination, she'll blow the centrist image she's carefully crafted since being elected to the Senate. Once she's that far left, if someone like Guiliani has already occupied the center, she's going to have a hard time reclaiming that ground. If a hardcore conservative emerges to take the Republican nomination, she'll reclaim it pretty easily and win. She's gotta hope to win early and then spend her money crafting her image as a centrist. A hard fight is the last thing she wants, and I think she may have one on her hands.

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FWIW I think Obama is running a very good and shrewed campaign so far. I also think his charisma has created a lot of excitement and interest in his candidacy. Haven't seen that in long time with presidential candidates. He hasn't really defined his policy regarding the "war on terror" and in foreign affairs in general. Again FWIW I think that is a good move on his part. People IMO have the same concerns about Hillary as they do about him when it comes to foreign affairs and being commander-in-chief so I don't see her gaining ground there. On domestic issues, I think Obama has a message that will play well with the Democratic Party base.

[troymclur]

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Unless the streets of America become filled with millions of homeless people within the next two years, Guiliani has no chance of being elected President.

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Reasoning behind this statement????

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I could see this going two ways.

1) Guiliani cleaned up the streets of New York. Bussed bums out of the city, etc. So he could propose a plan to clean up the U.S.

2) Democrats control Congress, if the economy turns sour people will be out of work and want to blame the Democrats in turn voting for the Republican candidate.

Hopefully one of those two is the reasoning behind Sam's statement.

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People blame/credit the president for the economy, and generally forget that he doesn't have complete and instant control of economic swings.

[Josem]

intrade has Giuliani rocketing ahead to 42% chance of winning republican nomination.

[Josem]

Giuliani announces: http://email.joinrudy2008.com/c.asp?...G7MNoVRTx9vd/w

[CharlieDontSurf]

Wouldn't rudy be the perfect canidate if he was a DEM
he'd have the tough on war/terrorism thing going for him...gun cotnrol, ok with the gays, down with the abortion, likes to screw around on wife. He'd cream Hillary and then pull in the indep and moderate republicans who didnt care about his social
aspects just his tough guy non nonsese aspect.