*** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***

[Thremp]

The line of thought you are taking is good, but don't apply it too broadly.

[mogwai316]

I use sbrlines.com to compare lines between different books. However one of the books I use is Diamond and the lines shown on sbrlines for Diamond often do not match the lines I see on the actual Diamond site. Anybody know why this is? For example sbrlines just showed that the Miami/FSU spread just moved from +5 to +5.5, but if I go to place that bet on Diamond it still gives me a line of +5. I've noticed this several times lately, for both pointspreads and moneylines.

[CrushinFelt]

Gogogo lottery!

Date placed:
Oct 18, 2007 12:18a 12 Team Parlay #89394673
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(406) Washington Redskins -8½ Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (405) Arizona Cardinals



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(409) Baltimore Ravens -3 (-125) Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (410) Buffalo Bills



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(409) Baltimore Ravens vs. (410) Buffalo Bills Over 35 (-105) Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(417) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-135) Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (418) Detroit Lions

(Bought 0.5 points)


Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(417) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (418) Detroit Lions Under 44½ Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(421) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-130) Sun@4:05p
Competitor: (422) Oakland Raiders



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(421) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (422) Oakland Raiders Under 37½ Sun@4:05p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(423) New York Jets vs. (424) Cincinnati Bengals Under 47 Sun@4:05p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(412) Dallas Cowboys -10 (-105) Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (411) Minnesota Vikings



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(425) Chicago Bears vs. (426) Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Sun@4:15p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(426) Philadelphia Eagles -5 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (425) Chicago Bears



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(433) Indianapolis Colts vs. (434) Jacksonville Jaguars Over 44½ Mon@8:30p



Risk $1.00 to win $1,952.16

Date placed:
Oct 18, 2007 12:16a 12 Team Parlay #89394625
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(405) Arizona Cardinals +9 (-120) Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (406) Washington Redskins

(Bought 0.5 points)


Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(405) Arizona Cardinals vs. (406) Washington Redskins Under 36 Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(409) Baltimore Ravens vs. (410) Buffalo Bills Over 35 (-105) Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(417) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-135) Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (418) Detroit Lions

(Bought 0.5 points)


Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(417) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (418) Detroit Lions Under 44½ Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(424) Cincinnati Bengals -6 (-115) Sun@4:05p
Competitor: (423) New York Jets



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(411) Minnesota Vikings vs. (412) Dallas Cowboys Under 47 Sun@4:15p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(412) Dallas Cowboys -10 (-105) Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (411) Minnesota Vikings



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(425) Chicago Bears vs. (426) Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 Sun@4:15p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(426) Philadelphia Eagles -5 Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (425) Chicago Bears



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(430) Denver Broncos +4 (-115) Sun@8:15p
Competitor: (429) Pittsburgh Steelers



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(433) Indianapolis Colts -3 (-135) Mon@8:30p
Competitor: (434) Jacksonville Jaguars

(Bought 0.5 points)


Risk $1.00 to win $1,876.01

Date placed:
Oct 18, 2007 12:14a 12 Team Parlay #89394560
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(405) Arizona Cardinals +9 (-120) Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (406) Washington Redskins

(Bought 0.5 points)


Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(405) Arizona Cardinals vs. (406) Washington Redskins Over 36 Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(409) Baltimore Ravens -3 (-125) Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (410) Buffalo Bills



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(409) Baltimore Ravens vs. (410) Buffalo Bills Under 35 (-115) Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(417) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (418) Detroit Lions Under 44½ Sun@1:00p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(418) Detroit Lions -2½ Sun@1:00p
Competitor: (417) Tampa Bay Buccaneers



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(421) Kansas City Chiefs +3 (-130) Sun@4:05p
Competitor: (422) Oakland Raiders



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(421) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (422) Oakland Raiders Over 37½ Sun@4:05p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(423) New York Jets vs. (424) Cincinnati Bengals Over 47 Sun@4:05p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(424) Cincinnati Bengals -6 (-115) Sun@4:05p
Competitor: (423) New York Jets



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL - WEEK 7
(411) Minnesota Vikings vs. (412) Dallas Cowboys Over 47 Sun@4:15p



Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread
NFL - WEEK 7
(412) Dallas Cowboys -10 (-105) Sun@4:15p
Competitor: (411) Minnesota Vikings



Risk $1.00 to win $1,927.94

[aufan91]

7-Team Parlay I have tomorrow (and Monday)

Falcons +8
Pats -17
49ers +9
Bucs +2.5
Chiefs +3
Bengals -6
Colts -3

The only one I'm not completely sure about is the Falcons game. Now that I said that, that'll probably be the only game that comes through for me.

10 to win 728.

[Schwatt]

I'm still trying to figure out a way to take advantage of 5 dimes anti-teaser lines. Here is a possibility:

Betting pleasers

Example:
True lines: Arizona +8, Atlanta +8
5 dimes teaser lines: Arizona +9.5, Atlanta +9.5
Bet a pleaser on 5 dimes to: Arizona +3.5, Atlanta +3.5

You do lose the 7, but still get the 3. At 6-1, you would think there has to be a way this can potentially be an +EV bet. Whether it is in conjunction with teasing the other side going for a high payday middle, or something.

I would think you uber math/stats guys could figure something out.

[prodonkey]

I think a straight parlay paying 13/5 getting the 8 points would be better than giving up 6 points.

[LogistX]

Picks:
BAL @ BUF+3
CHI @ PHI O42
NE @ MIA +17

Teasers:
ATL @ NO -2.5
TB @ DET +8
STL @ SEA -2.5
ARI @ WAS -2.5
KC +8.5 @ OAK
TEN @ HOU +8
(round robin)

18 bets @ 2 units each

[Austiger]

I was playing around with Excel and I came up with this:

If you win 55% of your bets at -110 odds using these bet sizes:
60% of wagers are risking 1/60th of bankroll or 1.67%
25% are risking 1/30th or 3.33%
15% are risking 1/20th or 5%

After 4000 bets your bankroll would increase by approximately 26,300%. For example, if you started with a $1,500 bankroll you would have $400,000 after 4000 bets.

Do these numbers sound far-fetched or is there some practical reason that they would be significantly off because of variance? (In my calculations I had the bet sizes increase according to the new bankroll every 20 bets.)

Too complicated? I'm just trying to figure out how to blow up my bankroll using Kelly bet-sizing. Any help would be appreciated.

[Thremp]

Austiger,

Monte Carlo I think would be best... I'm not terribly well versed in this. Utah posted something of the sort previously detailing arbing/flat betting/Kelly staking.

[iggymcfly]

Are there any Matchbook affiliated books that accept person-to-person transfers? I'd kind of like to get some more money on before the weekend and the only way I have enough liquid cash available is through my Stars account.