Stars VIP Wild speculation

[Henry17]

I realize that. The program is already very generous. I can't see them increasing it.

[MicroBob]

Increasing from $1k to $3k is not a 300% increase.

You guys arw both acting really silly and should consider colling out somewhat.

[NewGuy]

No, I don't expect it. Each and every one of the 2,000+ SuperNovas including me would very likely be happy with like it, but I don't EXPECT it.

I am simply pointing out that is is POSSIBLE for everyone to receive close to $3,000 in EV while achieving your all-consuming and all-important goal of being equitable. I am not math-challenged, but there may be some reading comprehension work that needs to be done here.

So while I don't EXPECT them to triple the budget, I also don't think it is inconceivable that Stars may decide to increase the amount they spend on a SuperNova rewards program by a decent amount given that the MINIMUM rake each SuperNova generates is on the order of $20,000-$30,000.

On a $/SuperNova basis, increasing the amount budgeted by $1,000 per year is not a ridiculous amount. This would result in a net increase in the effective rakeback of no more than 3-5% for those that barely make SuperNova, and on a weighted average basis across all SuperNovas would likely be more like ~2%.

Given how many people would prefer a cash bonus / T$s / or a monthly tourney ticket, and also given that eliminating the freeroll would reduce the EV for the 100s of very profitable Novas that played in them, Stars may very well opt to increase their expenditures here.

[ QUOTE ]

A free Ferrari for all SNs sounds good.


[/ QUOTE ]

I may be a character flawed coward, nit, a greedy bastard who'll take your money for pending time with your family, and bad at math, but I think I can keep up with you in the sarcasm department. IMO, you should stick to your core competencies of being condescending, you're world class there.

[NewGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Increasing from $1k to $3k is not a 300% increase.

You guys arw both acting really silly and should consider colling out somewhat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're 100% right on both counts, Bob. At 40, I should be mature enough to let it go, but being baited by holier-than-thou condescension is a weak spot of mine. Besides, someties it's fun to watch people like me act like idiots - a good drama bomb and immature p*ssing contest can be entertaining reading.

[xmbs]

[ QUOTE ]
So you expect Stars to increase the budget by $4.5M?

That is realistic. A 300% increase is kind of low. I think we should go for something higher. A free Ferrari for all SNs sounds good.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm starting to hate replying in this thread because I feel like I'm forever going round and round in circles. The Ferrari is a straw man argument.

When the program was set up Stars created a budget for it, they expected there to be a certain number of Supernovas, I daresay they roughly worked out how much each SN would receive in value on a week by week or month by month basis, they would have come up with some figures, which no one here except those actually party to those discussions or possibly works there knows for certain.

I continue to assume that the budget created assumed a substantially fewer number of SNs than currently exist - this is an assumption I may be wrong on in terms of degrees, but I'd be surprised if I was wrong in the big picture. Having budgeted for a certain number of SNs they also consequently would have assumed a certain amount of income from the rake from those SNs from which the promotion would be directly or indirectly funded.

There are now more SNs hence Stars has more income from rake, hence they have a larger potential budget for this sort of promotion. Surely that's not such a leap of logic? It may be indeed that they decide not to – I feel that would be a mistake personally both in terms of my self interest and indeed in terms of the overall draw of the promotion but it is of course ultimately completely up to them.

[Henry17]

[ QUOTE ]
So while I don't EXPECT them to triple the budget, I also don't think it is inconceivable that Stars may decide to increase the amount they spend on a SuperNova rewards program by a decent amount given that the MINIMUM rake each SuperNova generates is on the order of $20,000-$30,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and the rest of the package for a low end SN (200k VPP) is $14k. So while I'm too tired to confirm your rake numbers (I can't even do % this late apparently) when you look at the rake you have to figure they already give us a lot.

[Henry17]

XMBS: increasing the budget to reflect the number of SNs is reasonable. NewGuy wants them to increase it to reflect the EV he gets now which has nothing to do with the number of SNs and is instead a result of 2/3 of the SNs not playing.

[NewGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
XMBS: increasing the budget to reflect the number of SNs is reasonable. NewGuy wants them to increase it to reflect the EV he gets now which has nothing to do with the number of SNs and is instead a result of 2/3 of the SNs not playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Henry, since you took the high road and didn't reply to my admittedly juvenile garbage, I'll try to do the same and just try to explain my thinking.

I agree with XMBS that Stars likely had a $/SuperNova expenditure in mind when they rolled this out.

I think where you & I may differ, Henry, is more or less a function of what we perceive:
1) Stars "intended" or budgeted when they rolled out the freeroll program, on a $/SuperNova/year basis
2) What a reasonable amount going forward would be, again on a $/SuperNova/year basis

For figure #1:
My admittedly uninformed opinion was that Stars planned, budgeted, and/or was willing to spend more than the $80/month figure you've been quoting.

For figure #2:
If the freerolls are left intact, I would fully expect (and I'm guessing you would more or less agree here) that Stars would increase the total $s to keep the $/SuperNova allotted for 2008 about the same as for 2007.

Also related to figure #2 (i.e., the amount Stars "should" spend in 2008):
If the freerolls are eliminated and replaced with cash or T$s bonuses, my opinion (and it is only my opinion, I know you disagree) is that it would be a wise decision on Stars part to INCREASE the $/SuperNova spent in 2008.

My logic / thinking for this is that the 400-600 SuperNovas like myself who played in most of the freerolls would be disappointed if their SuperNova reward was dramatically reduced (e.g., from $3,000 in freeroll EV to <$1,000 n cash bonuses). Additionally, the ~1,500 who did not play regularly in the freerolls would be pleased to see a generous new bonus since they got nothing last year.

I understand you disagree that a) this is likely, b) that this would be a good marketing investment on Stars part. That's fine. But it seems reasonable for Stars to offer an additional value (equivalent to ~2-3% rakeback across all Novas perhaps?) to 1) keep those who played in the freerolls happy by not hacking their bonus by 2/3 and 2) make the Supernovas who effectively got $0 in 2007 since they didn't/couldn't play in freerolls VERY happy by giving them $50/week cash or $216 in T$s/month.

There's obviously room for agreement here. I don't think I am saying I deserve 50%+ rakeback as a Nova, but I think if they completely scrap a program 400-600 Novas derived ~$3,000 in value from is it really so unreasonable to expect Stars to bump up the wtd avg rakeback to Novas a bit to keep these customers happy, as well as really pleasing those who were left in the cold because they couldn't play in freerolls in 2007?

Stars does give a fairly decent, but not exceptional, rakeback % to SuperNovas already (there are a handful of threads around showing the %s, but they vary quite a bit based on what you play). I don't think it's grossly unreasonable to hope to receive roughly the same or perhaps a bit higher in 2008 as in 2007.

[illini43]

Getting off track from the Supernova discussion a bit...

If Stars were to get rid of the freerolls and instead institute a cash bonus of some sort for VIP players, I imagine this would be extended to all players (different amounts of $ per level attained). How likely would this be to happen?

Also, are the cash bonuses that you can currently buy with FPP going to have the same values as next year? I would think Stars would let people know if the value was going to increase/decrease for the cash bonuses (more/less FPPs neede to purchase it). Any speculation on this?

[MicroBob]

I think it would make more sense to offer the cash-bonuses for the SN's only.
"Get to SN level and receive a free $100 cash-bonus each month."

On the regular cash-bonuses that people purchase it is my 100% uneducated hunch that they will keep them exactly the same.