Brad Lidge - rut roh

[onlinebeginner]

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sample sizes hello

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hey.... ya its become a pretty big sample size

goodbye?

[mosdef]

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Maybe you should be their GM and make the moves.

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You really think the current GM/manager are infallible or something? They can't be criticized for doing stupid things? Is the Pope running the Astros now?

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Obviously their current situation isn't working. Is it really that big of a deal that they guy has gone from closer to setup?

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Only if you consider "reducing the probability of winning by voluntarily using good players in less important situations" to be a "big deal".

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Maybe it was just bad luck but who cares.

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Any rational person who doesn't think it's a good idea to make strategic decisions based on outcomes due entirely to luck. If you get all in with AA preflop 3 times and you get busted twice, do you stop trying to get all in preflop with AA? Why or why not?

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For some players a biggest issue is confidence, if returning to the setup role restores some confidence, return him there.

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"I don't understand your fancy statistics, but baseball announcers that also don't understand statistics talk about confidence and the need to be confident all the time, and that sure as heck sounds good, so I'll go with that since I have no concrete basis on which to formulate a counterargument."

[prohornblower]

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Only if you consider "reducing the probability of winning by voluntarily using good players in less important situations" to be a "big deal".

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Why do people always assume the 7th and 8th innings are meaningless? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] There really isn't much of a difference in the value of outs in the 7th inning rather than the 9th.

[capone0]

Is this your first season watching baseball? I've watched every closer other than John Smoltz just about fail in his closer role with the Braves. You can't tell me it was all physical issues with guys like Reistma, Wholers and others. So your saying the guy is just unlucky?

Last year his K/bb was halfed. Since the Pujols playoff game he hasn't been the same, same can be said for a lot of closers who "just haven't been the same" since 1 rediculous playoff appearance or appearances. I don't know what else to tell you. Is he stuck on your bench in Fantasy and you can't take it that he's not closing now. I'll put the pitcher where he can succeed. You act like Wheeler has been horrible since he started, I know it's a short sample size but let him pitch himself into the position or out of it. Same can be said for Lidge. He pitched himself out of the starting closer role. Maybe he can get it back but who cares as long as the teams winning.

[Fels krone]

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Why do people always assume the 7th and 8th innings are meaningless? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] There really isn't much of a difference in the value of outs in the 7th inning rather than the 9th.

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Very much agreed. I cant recall exactly what year, but the astros were playing the cards in the NLCS(?) and at the time Lidge was ace plus. Must have been the year before Pujols HR. Anyway, in the 8th inning, the meat of the cards lineup was up; 2,3 and 4 hitters. So instead of bringing in Lidge, Garner let some other donk pitch that inning because he was saving Lidge for the close in the 9th. The cards scored that inning and astros lost said game. I never understood why people are so dedicated to this policy.

[dontmesswithme]

Note To Billy, send Chavy to the stros for Ensberg + Lidge let us gogogo

[prohornblower]

Sounds like a Dan Miceli outing.

Who!?!?

Exactly.

[prohornblower]

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Note To Billy, send Chavy to the stros for Ensberg + Lidge let us gogogo

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I figured Billy may be into Mo because of his walks, but word around here is that the Astros have been shopping Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg and have been getting no bites.

[mosdef]

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Why do people always assume the 7th and 8th innings are meaningless? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] There really isn't much of a difference in the value of outs in the 7th inning rather than the 9th.

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This is incorrect. The later in the game it is (and the closer the game is) the larger the swing in win probability due the current plate appearance. Generally speaking, you are better off using your best reliever late in close games. You can always come up with an exceptional scenario where the 7th or 8th inning is more important, but a team is best served by using it's best reliever as late as possible as the "default" setting. When you don't, you sacrifice win probability.

Look up Leverage Index on google (if you haven't already). This concept has been bouncing around the sabrmetric community for about 4 years.

[prohornblower]

I'm just saying, if I'm Garner, I leave Lidge in for 7th/8th inning work as long as Wheeler is closing games out in a consistent fashion.

Just my opinion on the matter. In the future, I'd still be willing to entertain the idea of Lidge as the closer.