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#311
05-10-2006, 04:03 PM
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Re: Interesting prop on Skybook.
Of course, I understand that. By the way, for whatever reason, America loves Taylor, there is absolutely NO way he is going tonight. Chris is a possibility, but he has been the front-runner for the whole competition; I just don't see him leaving tonight.
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#312
05-10-2006, 04:11 PM
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Week 9: top four - postshow thoughts
I've been out of town for a family funeral and wasn't able to see the preshow odds at all. Watched the show off the tivo, and here are some thoughts:
Elliott delivered by far the best performances of the night. Probably two of the best five performances this year and maybe two of the top three. Chris was very mediocre. Interesting to see if his fanbase comes through for him. Taylor was terrible on performance #1, and adequate on performance #2. Kat dropped the ball. I thought her second performance was decent, but the judges didn't help her at all. Especially given the handicap that was Elvis week for a female competitor. I'm not sure how much stock to put in to DialIdol at this point. Especailly given that they've consistenly overrated Taylor including showing him at a clear #1 in voting when in week seven he was shown as in the middle two of the six remaining. in Raw numbers, DI shows 35,000 more vote attempts for Kat than Taylor, not sure how that plays in. With the current Pinny odds at: Elliott to go +368 (21%) Kat to go -125 (55%) Taylor to go +1781 (5%) Chris to go +229 (30%) I really believe tonight's eliminiation is a toss-up. Anyone could be going home tonight. Any two could be in the bottom two. We've got really strong competitors all of whom will likely go on to have solid careers in music / entertainment. Although i still believe Taylor is seriously overrated, but I do acknowledge that he has a strong fanbase. I believe that the most +EV of the lines out there is Taylor, I'd say that he has a greater than 5% chance of being eliminated tonight. That being said, even though the line might be +EV its still a large longshot. So my formal pick for the week: Taylor to go +1781, risking .05 unit to win .8905 units. Season Record: 4-4 on elimination picks. +0.6762 I'm obviously pleased with the progress to date with my original predictions -having predicted three of the top four I'm in a guaranteed hedge position where I'll be able to guarantee a profit regardless of who ends in the final two. Obviously, I'm pulling for Taylor to get eliminated this week or next, as i've got the other three remaining contestants.
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#313
05-10-2006, 04:18 PM
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Re: Week 9: top four - postshow thoughts
Lines have shifted somewhat significantly since I wrote the post above:
(old lines in italics) Elliott to go +404 (20%) up ~10% +368 (21%) Kat to go -108 (52%) down ~15% -125 (55%) Taylor to go +1420 (6.5%) down ~20% +1781 (5%) Chris to go +162 (38%) down ~30% +229 (30%) meaning money has come in heavily on Chris and Taylor since posted.
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#314
05-10-2006, 05:16 PM
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Re: Week 9: top four - postshow thoughts
another update:
Taylor has jumped to +1942, so if you want to follow my pick of a $5 bet on Taylor now is a good time.
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#315
05-10-2006, 06:13 PM
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Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
Free-
You are right I was to harsh on my comments. I do apoligize. Good luck to you. As far as Jesse.....I will give you 20-1 odds Chris goes farther then goat boy elliot.
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#316
05-10-2006, 06:18 PM
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Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
[ QUOTE ]
Free- You are right I was to harsh on my comments. I do apoligize. Good luck to you. [/ QUOTE ] Accepted. Good luck to you as well.
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#317
05-10-2006, 06:25 PM
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Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
I'm predicting a bottom 2 tonight of Chris and Katherine, with Katherine leaving. My, how times have changed.
Elliott has been ON FIRE the past 3 weeks, and his stock has risen tremendously. He has become my favorite as well.
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#318
05-10-2006, 06:53 PM
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Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
[ QUOTE ]
Free- You are right I was to harsh on my comments. I do apoligize. Good luck to you. As far as Jesse.....I will give you 20-1 odds Chris goes farther then goat boy elliot. [/ QUOTE ] Done. I'll put $200 on that. To simplify: You put up $4000 I put up $200 If Chris lasts longer than Elliott, you receive $4200. If Elliott lasts longer than Chris, I receive $4200. Granny, are you around? I'd appreciate it if you could hold the funds (or one of the regulars who do this). Poker transfer, I assume? Jesse
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#320
05-10-2006, 08:11 PM
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Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
[ QUOTE ]
I will give you 20-1 odds Chris goes farther then goat boy elliot. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Done. I'll put $200 on that. To simplify: You put up $4000 I put up $200 If Chris lasts longer than Elliott, you receive $4200. If Elliott lasts longer than Chris, I receive $4200. Jesse [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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