Average Speed XVII Game Thread

[theSmell]

Ok, I decided to keep things simple and just start day at 9AM tomorrow morning as per the normal schedule.

So wolf, kill by 9AM tomorrow morning, please.

IT IS STILL NIGHT

[theSmell]

Just after the Barnes and Noble employees make an annoucement to start forming a line to buy the books and that the countdown will begin shortly, you see out of the corner of your eye, DustinG, curled up in a ball in the corner of the store crying. The spoiler must have gotten to him.

Dustin was a villager


It is MUST-LYNCH, which means no un-voting. Changing your vote is allowed, but you are not permitted to unvote.

IT IS DAY!

[theSmell]

<font color="red"> [0] fmxda </font>
<font color="red"> [0] fnord_too </font>
<font color="red"> [0] ScottHoward v3.1 </font>

<font color="green"> 10:00 No good </font>
Majority Lynch = 2

[DustinG]

****DEAD*****



****DEAD*****

[fnord_too]

in and out all day.

I thought about the possible end games some last night.

My best case for last wolf is scott. The biggest thing there is tone. He has was posturing all day yesterday and to a lesser extent for the past couple of days. Most notably, once the wagons were 2-2 yesterday, voting supine is the dominant strategy for scott regardless of his role. To spell this out, if he is a wolf, it gives him the best chance to win because he brings me to end game, and if he is a villager, it gives the village two chances to win instead of one. (what he stated yesterday).

Really, anyone with half a brain can see supine was the right play for scott regardless, and scott has more than half a brain. He could always take his time and puzzle it out because he didn't want to be lynched by someone who didn't see the obvious and thought his vote was suspicious.

Which brings me to something that kind of bothered me. When he was pushing dustin, I asked a question about whether dustin would fight villager shorty if he was a wolf. Honest question about a huge event in the game. Scott basically read that as a counter argument, said he hadn't considered it, and dropped everything right there. Could have been a big brain fart to forget about the most important interaction in the game (dustin is a big shorty wagoneer, so the seer has to come out leaving the village with three total peeks and zero confirmed villagers after day 4), but scott typically does not miss big stuff like that.

These are certainly nothing I would take the lynch yesterday for to ensure scott goes down today, because the chances that supine was the wolf were high, and also there is some chance scott gets lynched today.

If your the wolf fmx, smooth play yesterday.

If scott is the wolf, you got lucky fmx came up with a second wagon yesterday or your night kills get you lynched.

I will check in as I can, and answer any questions, but I have pretty much said everything I can think of.

fmx, reread scott yesterday and see if you see what I am talking about with the posturing for a supine vote, even though it was clear in either role. Also, scott screwed up the night kill again, because I think dustin still votes for me today if he is left alive, he is just that stubborn.

[ScottHoward v3.1]

ok, im here
im glad fnord posted before me, because he is ignoring a fairly simple point that practically guarantees fmx isn’t the wolf:
how can I be his “best case”? I have to be his “only case” in his eyes. theres no way fmx is a wolf here. the simple point is that if fmx was the wolf, the final three would be fmx/dustin/fnord or fmx/dustin/scott. dustin never ever never gets killed if fmx is the wolf. fnord is apparently paying close attention to the kills and lynches and such, and he allegedly “thought about endgames” last night, and missed this?

fmx, Im not sure whats on your mind, but in my eyes, this is the easiest vote ever.
fnord
I don’t even have to get into posts, suspicions, or anything else. theres no way you kill dustin if youre the wolf. its that simple for me.

[ScottHoward v3.1]

and fmx, if fnord is asking you to reread me, why wouldnt he have voted for me already?
to keep his options open perhaps in case i came in here thinking you were the wolf?

[theSmell]

[0] fmxda
<font color="red"> [1] fnord_too </font>
[0] ScottHoward v3.1 voted for fnord_too

<font color="green"> 10:00 No good </font>
Majority Lynch = 2

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
and fmx, if fnord is asking you to reread me, why wouldnt he have voted for me already?
to keep his options open perhaps in case i came in here thinking you were the wolf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if fmx is the wolf now he can pile on me so it doesn't really matter any more since there is no unvote. I did want to see what everyone said before committing.

scott

I was kind of hoping smell said no majority today so I could drop a quick vote on fmx to bait you into piling on since you have a tendency to not read the write ups.

Good luck fmx. Scott is the wolf. Think about this: if I am the wolf I took one hell of an unnecessary chance that I could survive yesterday with the previous night kills. It's tough, because you have to figure out who blundered the night kills, but it is a much bigger blunder for me.

[ScottHoward v3.1]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if fmx is the wolf now he can pile on me so it doesn't really matter any more since there is no unvote. I did want to see what everyone said before committing.


[/ QUOTE ]
fmx should be voting fnord for this post alone.

so far, all fnords posts are screaming wolf. im not sure if thats because i already know it though.
fmx, ive got work to do, but ill keep an eye on the thread in case you have any doubts.