i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[m bozeman]

I see the bottom 2 being Paris and Elliot. Taylor has never been in the bottom 3, and seems to have a huge fan base. I prefer Elliot over Taylor, but with Elliot having been in the bottom 3 a few times, it seems like he would be in more trouble than Taylor. Unless Paris has an outstanding night, she will be gone this week.

If I had to predict the order of finish right now, it would be;
5. Paris
4. Elliot
3. Taylor
2. Katherine
1. Chris

Although, Katherine has a very good chance to overtake Chris if she has great performances in the next few weeks.

[Performify]

I agree, bozeman, i think its just a toss-up between Taylor and Elliot. Its not exactly known who among Taylor and Elliot were in the "bottom three" last week, as we only got to see the bottom two. But we know one of them was 3rd lowest, and one was 4th lowest.

I think its going to be highly performance depenedant. Taylor's stock has fallen tremendously in the past three weeks, with three consucutive weeks of bad to mediocre performances. In the same time, Elliot's star has risen tremendously. If Elliot comes out and knocks his songs out of the park (and if he's really singing those two songs leaked above, I think he's got an excellent chance to do so), and if Taylor's "Play that Funky Music" is as bad as I expect it to be (mediocre karoyke bar, i can hear the judges' comments already) then i think he may make a dip in to the bottom two.

I think it might actually help him to do so, as his fanbase would probably rebound and keep him around next week. For that reason, i actually hope I'm wrong as I'd really like to see the final order be: Kat, Chris, Elliot, Taylor, Paris.

[ImBen]

You guys are seriously overvaluing Katharine. Her chance of winning is roughly equivalent to that of all the male contestants being killed in a car crash.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are seriously overvaluing Katharine. Her chance of winning is roughly equivalent to that of all the male contestants being killed in a car crash.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't know, if she sings like last week and has more wardrobe malfunctions she has a chance. This week, however, she was terrible.

Man this week sucked. I thought Chris's first number was the only really good one. I think Taylor was the only one who had even above average performances on both halves. Katherine's first song was awful, just awful. I still think Paris will get the boot as I don't think she was great and she was clearly lowest on the block, but the performances were very erratic and I imagine it is closer than one would have expected. [I missed Elliott's first song, so if it was particularly good/bad I missed it].

[Performify]

Definately on the right side of the line yet again, with the pre-show prediction. Paris currently at ~ -230 on Pinny to go home.

I'll be staying with my pre-show position, but there are two hedges available if one were so inclined. With our early position on Paris at -170, the following line is now avaialble:

Paris to NOT go home: +203.

This would allow for a guaranteed profit of about $8 per unit wagered, or a risk free ~$18 per unit wagered if she did get kicked (if you just bet enough on the NO to cover a loss but not profit any if she didn't go)


Another riskier hedge is available:

Will E Yamin or K McPhee be eliminated on May 3rd?
53 Yes +222
54 No -250

Betting the Yes side here would allow a hedge position of a guaranteed ~ $18 per unit or a risk free ~ $25 per unit wagered if she did get kicked (again with the latter, covering your Paris position but not profiting if she doesn't go home).

However I think at this point there's an outside shot that anyone goes home - Taylor or Chris included.

Quick thoughts on the performances:

Elliott was mediocre on both songs I thought. Buble's Home certainly showed off the tone of his voice, but it wasn't very exciting.

Katherine had one of the worst performances in her history with the first song, and then in my opinion the best performance of the night in her second. Sexy, cute, fun, and great vocals.

Chris did very well on his first song, and then decent on his second, but vocal strain was showing. Probably won't hurt him that bad.

Taylor's performances were comically bad to me, just a caricature of himself. But we'll see if his fan base comes through again for him.

Paris performed as expected. She's still a strong favorite to leave in my opinion, regardless of the odds listed. Behind Paris I still think its a toss up between Elliott and Taylor, but we could see anyone down there including Kat or even Chris.

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
Katherine had one of the worst performances in her history with the first song, and then in my opinion the best performance of the night in her second. Sexy, cute, fun, and great vocals.

Chris did very well on his first song, and then decent on his second, but vocal strain was showing. Probably won't hurt him that bad.

Taylor's performances were comically bad to me, just a caricature of himself. But we'll see if his fan base comes through again for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

performity, good comments...

FWIW (and it's getting better), it looks like paris isn't clear-cut to go home. seeing kat as pretty close to her. will be alot of seriously upset people if kat goes home tonight (have they had really unpopular decisions in past years? i only watched kelly/justin season).

i'm beginning to think that taylor's lounge act actually has a good chance to win the whole thing and that the A.I. producers wouldn't be upset disappointed.

i still like chris but am getting tired of the same old all the time. and is his musical style really what A.I. is supposed to be about (i saw a google thread about whether winning A.I. would actually help in the alt-rock world, although A.I. is so huge now that it might actually trascend the differences, but i do know that mothers won't want their 10 year old daughters seeing chris' angry rock, but he'll be on A.I. tour nontheless).

Kat is very interesting. intermittedly, she gets huge support. i think some of her fan base would be older and not prone to phoning in 25 times for her.... i find her somewhat boring (boring but sexy if that's possible, and a nice personality) but i'll miss her if she's gone

[Jesse Kidd]

If you wanted to hedge, I'd take the Elliott/Katharine bet, as Katharine is easily the 2nd most likely to be eliminated. The odds of Chris or Taylor going this week are negligible.

That being said, I think you are best off just hanging on to Paris.


Jesse

[Performify]

Paris continues to climb as the favorite to be eliminated:
51 Yes -271
52 No +235

With the other hedge option climbing as well:

Will E Yamin or K McPhee be eliminated on May 3rd?
53 Yes +254
54 No -300

Still holding off on the hedge, but its getting even more attractive.

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Paris continues to climb as the favorite to be eliminated:
51 Yes -271
52 No +235

With the other hedge option climbing as well:

Will E Yamin or K McPhee be eliminated on May 3rd?
53 Yes +254
54 No -300

Still holding off on the hedge, but its getting even more attractive.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should have taken Kat at +500 last night. That line lingered well into the early morning. The chance of a male leaving is miniscule.

[Performify]

Paris and Elliott are the bottom two, with Paris sent packing as predicted.

Season Record: 4-4 on elimination picks. +0.6762