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#292
05-14-2007, 04:27 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
who wants to multi-table speed play micros with me when the 10 billion gets close?
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#293
05-14-2007, 06:33 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
odds of hitting it 1 time if you sat at 12 tables for all 100 hands?
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#294
05-14-2007, 07:23 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
Administrator: Congratulations to 'Bloop65', who just won MILESTONE HAND #9914000000 and receives $575. Everyone else dealt into the hand also received a cash
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#296
05-14-2007, 07:32 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
[ QUOTE ]
odds of hitting it 1 time if you sat at 12 tables for all 100 hands? [/ QUOTE ] Wild ass guess... 1/6000 chance of hitting at each table, means 1-(5999/6000)^12 = .002 or .2% chance of hitting on one of the millions. if you sat 12 tables for each of the 100 chances, it'd be like 1-(.998)^100 = 18% chance of being at a table that hit at least one time.
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#297
05-14-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
Homer - your approximations look pretty decent to me.
Also, I think I was at all my tables when one of the milestones passed and I didn't see any pop-up announcement. Yes, it was an odd-numbers one. Weird
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#298
05-14-2007, 07:49 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
[ QUOTE ]
odds of hitting it 1 time if you sat at 12 tables for all 100 hands? [/ QUOTE ] The precise calculation is a little above my pay grade, but I would imagine you'd divide the number of possible hands you could play by tables eligible. If you're playing 5-10 times as many hands shouldn't you have 5-10 times better odds than any random table x 12? Question is what are the odds of any random table being chosen? 1/13000 maybe. 5-10 times number of hands rounded off optimistically then would change that to say 1/2000 divided by 12. Maybe 1/150 then rounded. Still pretty long I guess. Here's the thing though.. there are 80-90 of these intervals left. 1/150 over the next 80-90 milestones gets pretty interesting.
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#299
05-14-2007, 07:55 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] odds of hitting it 1 time if you sat at 12 tables for all 100 hands? [/ QUOTE ] Wild ass guess... 1/6000 chance of hitting at each table, means 1-(5999/6000)^12 = .002 or .2% chance of hitting on one of the millions. if you sat 12 tables for each of the 100 chances, it'd be like 1-(.998)^100 = 18% chance of being at a table that hit at least one time. [/ QUOTE ] I think you're way off on tables eligible but I could be wrong. You numbers are much more optimistic then I would ever have imagined.
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#300
05-14-2007, 08:02 PM
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Re: PS: 10 Billionth Hand Promo Details
asg - it was pointed out earlier in the thread that the numbers are somewhat deceiving.
The hand numbers include play-money and tournament tables. But none of those are eligible for the milestone hand. So if a given hand is only 3,000 off, probably half of those that came between you and the milestone weren't eligible anyway so you were really only 1,500 off. That's a total approximation. It's entirely possible that play-money and tournament hands actually account for more than 50%. I haven't bothered to look. I don't understand what you're driving at in your other post. Homer is pretty sharp about all of this stuff. And his approximation looks like a really good one to me.
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