Player Discussion

[voltron.]

Even if you guys could agree on EV calculations, how would they even answer the question of which hand is worth more? All this doesn't seem like an accurate way of evaluating a NL hand anyway.

Mason's attitude towards everyone in this thread is awful, he is not making himself look good here.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate.

MM

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason, here is the principle problem you are missing.

While it is +ev for AQ to call the preflop reraise and play as you prescribed assuming player B plays as you prescribed, it is still the case in which the holder of JJ has the more +ev hand.

the ev of AQ to fold preflop is 0. the EV of JJ when AQ folds is 55. when AQ calls preflop, he has made a +ev decision and wrested 16 or so ev from JJ and thus calling is better than folding but it does not mean you would prefer to have AQ.

think of it this way in an extreme example. I am playing a new game with you. we roll dice. you win when a 6 comes up, I win when all other numbers come up.

before the roll there is 1000 in the pot, I have 100 left, you have 100 left. I bet 50, at this point it is intuitively obvious that you should call the 50 because that is the +ev decision, that does not mean that after you call the 50 you would prefer being in your position rather than mine.

taking it back to our problem. JJ would prefer AQ folds to the preflop reraise (which is probably why he made it in the first place) because the fold is more +ev for him. but even if AQ calls, it is more preferential to hold JJ.

[cwsiggy]

that's it - I'm emailing Greenstein and Lederer. Hopefully I'll hear back.

[Matt Flynn]

I am for the first time putting a thread on ignore. If Mason ever gets around to the issue in his original post, I'd appreciate it if someone would PM me.

Thanks.

[Mark1808]

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My answer was that if someone was all-in, the jacks would be better, but if they each had chips left, which was the case here, the ace-queen suited was better.


[/ QUOTE ]

How did this thread become so convoluted?

It's pretty clear to me that the original discussion at the table was intended as a simple discourse on implied odds.

The implication was that even though AQs is a slight dog preflop, it has implied odds if it flops a pair or ends up making a flush.

Unfortunately, all the experienced NL players say that the implied odds really reside with JJ because it can flop a set which is much more likely to be paid off.

The subsequent repeated redefining of the problem strikes me as bull****.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excuse me it seems like you are too smart to post here. This board is only for cynical poker pros who can't grasp a simple concept and refuse to try and understand.

The question is, Would you rather be reraising $150 with JJ or calling $110 as AQ given the fact that JJ acts first after the flop and makes a continuation bet of 3/4 of the pot?

AQ has a higher EV than JJ in this case, but this is not saying its a better hand!! It says given the amount of the reraise over the original bet and the fact JJ makes a continuation bet out of position AQ is a better hand.

[Yeti]

[ QUOTE ]
The question is, Would you rather be reraising $150 with JJ or calling $110 as AQ given the fact that JJ acts first after the flop and makes a continuation bet of 3/4 of the pot?

AQ has a higher EV than JJ in this case, but this is not saying its a better hand!! It says given the amount of the reraise over the original bet and the fact JJ makes a continuation bet out of position AQ is a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, isn't JJ in position?

[slong]

[ QUOTE ]

The question is, Would you rather be reraising $150 with JJ or calling $110 as AQ given the fact that JJ acts first after the flop and makes a continuation bet of 3/4 of the pot?

AQ has a higher EV than JJ in this case, but this is not saying its a better hand!! It says given the amount of the reraise over the original bet and the fact JJ makes a continuation bet out of position AQ is a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are mistaken, AQ doesn't have a higher EV than JJ in this hand, see my and El Diablo's previous posts. EV(AQ) > 0 for the preflop call but EV(JJ) > EV(AQ).

If you are wondering why they both can have a positive expected value it is because of the dead money in the pot (blinds + initial raise).

[El Diablo]

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My answer was that if someone was all-in, the jacks would be better, but if they each had chips left, which was the case here, the ace-queen suited was better.


[/ QUOTE ]

How did this thread become so convoluted?

It's pretty clear to me that the original discussion at the table was intended as a simple discourse on implied odds.

The implication was that even though AQs is a slight dog preflop, it has implied odds if it flops a pair or ends up making a flush.

Unfortunately, all the experienced NL players say that the implied odds really reside with JJ because it can flop a set which is much more likely to be paid off.

The subsequent repeated redefining of the problem strikes me as bull****.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excuse me it seems like you are too smart to post here. This board is only for cynical poker pros who can't grasp a simple concept and refuse to try and understand.

The question is, Would you rather be reraising $150 with JJ or calling $110 as AQ given the fact that JJ acts first after the flop and makes a continuation bet of 3/4 of the pot?

AQ has a higher EV than JJ in this case, but this is not saying its a better hand!! It says given the amount of the reraise over the original bet and the fact JJ makes a continuation bet out of position AQ is a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you missed the part where I showed that using Mason's assumptions, we can mathematically prove that JJ has the higher EV. Thanks for coming out, though, chief.

[El Diablo]

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I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate.

MM

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason, here is the principle problem you are missing.

While it is +ev for AQ to call the preflop reraise and play as you prescribed assuming player B plays as you prescribed, it is still the case in which the holder of JJ has the more +ev hand.

the ev of AQ to fold preflop is 0. the EV of JJ when AQ folds is 55. when AQ calls preflop, he has made a +ev decision and wrested 16 or so ev from JJ and thus calling is better than folding but it does not mean you would prefer to have AQ.

think of it this way in an extreme example. I am playing a new game with you. we roll dice. you win when a 6 comes up, I win when all other numbers come up.

before the roll there is 1000 in the pot, I have 100 left, you have 100 left. I bet 50, at this point it is intuitively obvious that you should call the 50 because that is the +ev decision, that does not mean that after you call the 50 you would prefer being in your position rather than mine.

taking it back to our problem. JJ would prefer AQ folds to the preflop reraise (which is probably why he made it in the first place) because the fold is more +ev for him. but even if AQ calls, it is more preferential to hold JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent explanation of the fundamental concept that Mason got tripped up on here.

Mason did one half of the calculation and realized that given his assumptions, it is more +EV for AQs to call than for AQs to fold.

However, what Mason did not realize is that even though it is +EV for AQs to call, JJ remains the far better hand.

If AQs folds, given Mason's assumptions, JJ EV is 55 compared to AQ's EV of 0.

If AQs calls, given Mason's assumptions, JJ EV is 40 comapred to AQ's EV of 15.

Obviously, given those assumptions, it is better for AQs to call the reraise than to fold in this situation. However, JJ remains the better, more profitable, and preferable hand.

Yes, NL games are definitely good these days!

[not_da_nizzles]

I read all ~300 post in this thread in a little over an hour. Mason will be unhappy to know that I made ~$25 an hour doing this since I will now not be purchasing his new book. I humbly suggest that everyone else do the same until he comes back and admits that he was wrong.

"Best Wishes"
mj