|
|
#291
08-01-2007, 01:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If I started training and worked hard for 6 months, I think I could beat anyone over 50, pretty sure. [/ QUOTE ] How much action will you take Nick? We might have a bet. Best 3 of 5, in Las Vegas, six months from now? (February-ish?) St. Valentine's Day Massacre, 2+2 style. [/ QUOTE ] Please post details and invite spectators if this happens. This could be crazy fun to observe. On a side note, I've been looking forward to Admo vs. Nick prop-betting goodness for quite a while now. 
|
|
#293
08-01-2007, 02:51 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'll bet you can't roll a 12 with two die in 20 attempts. We can bet $1000 per 20 attempts. I have taken 4 or 5 people at this one. Only for $20s and $50s per set though. [/ QUOTE ] This is great and easy. I'm going to have to add this to the repertoire. [/ QUOTE ] Ya. Lot's pf people initially assume that since it is 1/36 to roll a 12 that 18 rolls must be the break even point for them. But you can give up to 24 rolls for this one ad still have the edge. At 20 rolls it is like 58-42 edge for you or something like that so you might want to get some money locked up since you are certainly no lock over a couple of attempts. If you go at $1000 an attempt until someone is up $10000 you are a huge favorite. [/ QUOTE ] I really like this idea of guaranteeing yourself a certain amount. If you play for X amount and no quitting until somebody is up/down 10X (same as above), then you guarantee yourself a ton more action on what is essentially a casino game (57/43). Can somebody is who much better at stat (read: not hung over) find out how likely you are to win with a 57% edge and no quitting until somebody is up/down 10 bets? (assuming both players will quit at that point).
|
|
#294
08-01-2007, 03:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
Can somebody is who much better at stat (read: not hung over) find out how likely you are to win with a 57% edge and no quitting until somebody is up/down 10 bets? (assuming both players will quit at that point). [/ QUOTE ] If I did it right, the guy with the 57% edge will get to +10 first ~94.4% of the time.
|
|
#296
08-01-2007, 05:35 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
> 2 years without talking.
To other people, or does swearing when you stub your toe count? If it's just talking to other people I think I could do this for $500k. > 1 year working at McDonalds without getting fired. Must > be full time, 35-40 hours a week. $100k - but only because I'd lose my current income and opportunities. > Walking from Seattle to Miami. Any time limit? And other restrictions (eg can I walk to a point, put down a marker and get a ride back to town or is it carrying tent etc? It's 3315 miles. I'd do it carrying my tent and food with no vehicles allowed (except where strictly necessary to cross a river or whatever, and would do makeup distance) for $100k (half would go to charity).
|
|
#297
08-01-2007, 06:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
That's a pretty cool bet, I'm gonna look for degen gamblers to take it [/ QUOTE ] The thing about this bet is that any half smart prop bettor is going to realise you know something they dont when you are wanting to make that bet.
|
|
#298
08-01-2007, 06:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
you'd need pro male soccer players vs like high school girls for the men to win easily playing 4 down. you realize they'd have to play like a 1-2-3? if anyone is serious, i'll take action on this. i'll even consider giving odds. i coach a girls rep team, aged 15 to 17. you can have any 7 guys you want, aged 17 or less. the girls all live in vancouver and are mostly poor, but i'm sure i can get them to travel to seattle or portland if you're willing to pay for their time. we play two 45 minute halves, two 15 minute halves after that if we're tied. no action on a tie after 120 minutes. no subs, regulation field, regulation ball, we pull the ref from a local soccer association agreed upon by both sides. [/ QUOTE ] I would bet everything I have, everything I could borrow, and everything I will ever have the rest of my life on 7 pro men vs 11 high school girls. I'd probably bet everything I have now on 7 very good men under 17 vs girls the same age. To bad I couldn't have literally anyone I wanted because the bet would be a lock then. I had a teacher who went to school at UNC when Mia Hamm and all those other girls were there and they just dominated the NCAA. The intermural champions at Carolina got to play them as part of winning, and dominated. As for the NBA vs WNBA bet mentioned, my friends and I have discussed this bet at least 10 drunken nights. I think 2 NBA allstars could beat 5 WNBA girls (the best ones, whoever they are) if they could substitute. Put Lebron and Kobe on the floor and they will score literally every possession (or get fouled.) Then have them both just stand next to the basket and grab all the rebounds from the girls (who would literally never get a single rebound.) A more interesting bet would be 3 NBA players vs 5 WNBA players, assuming all out for 48 minutes, and setting the line. I can't even figure out close to the right line, but NBA by at least 50. Morons are like "of course the WNBA wins, 2 more players" haha yea right, Kobe, Lebron, and Wade are dropping 200 points. If you actually sit down and think this bet through, there is no way the WNBA wins either. I'd probably take Kobe over 3 of the best WNBA players by himself for a really nice figure as well. Keep in mind, these girls cannot even dunk the [censored] ball! Think about how hard UNC dominates some terrible college with 500 students and multiply that by 2 thousand. That is probably underestimating the asskicking Kobe and company would hand out PS I would pay 1000 dollars for this on pay-per-view no question. It is my ultimate dream to make something like this happen. I've figured out almost every event, it would be an 8 hour pay-per-view, and would be worth whatever it costed by 100. I'm thinking the best woman boxer in the world vs an average 17 year old amateur, 3 NBA players vs 5 WNBA players (hell they can have 7), I've just added 7 vs 11 soccer, five best women basketball players vs a random high school (drawn from a hat), the best NCAA woman softball team vs the same college's intermural men's team (probably only event I'm backing the female side), and a couple others I'll remember next time my friends and I get drunk and we start talking about this again. We also really want to put some form of a logical thinking contest but don't know how.
|
|
#299
08-01-2007, 08:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That's a pretty cool bet, I'm gonna look for degen gamblers to take it [/ QUOTE ] The thing about this bet is that any half smart prop bettor is going to realise you know something they dont when you are wanting to make that bet. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. And the kind of people who aren't savvy enough to try and figure out why you're making that bet also typically aren't going to give you much in the way of action.
|
|
#300
08-01-2007, 08:49 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] That's a pretty cool bet, I'm gonna look for degen gamblers to take it [/ QUOTE ] The thing about this bet is that any half smart prop bettor is going to realise you know something they dont when you are wanting to make that bet. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. And the kind of people who aren't savvy enough to try and figure out why you're making that bet also typically aren't going to give you much in the way of action. [/ QUOTE ] Neither of you is factoring alcohol into the equation. When you are prepared, alcohol is your friend. It makes people much more willing to gamble.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
