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[MicroBob]

Also - I put down a nice big bet that Mizrachi doesn't win the CP POTY award.

It will be fun rooting against him for the rest of the year.

[CalvinTy]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, since you asked so nice.
note, Fossum for TB doesn't evactly overwhelm me. Just hoping he has a good outing.
same for Claussen for CIN.

These are all $10 picks for me and I'll probably go 0-4.
YMMV.

TB +148 vs BOS (now +146)
SD -113 vs LA
WAS +151 vs STL
CIN +146 vs HOU (now +142)

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice that you are sharing your picks, MicroBob. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Just to help everyone a little bit with more info on those picks you mentioned:

http://www.covers.com/sports-scores/...-matchups.aspx

(info gleaned from here as of 5pm EDT)
Consensus (betting percentage on moneyline picks)

BOS (M. Clement) at TB (C. Fossum) +146 73.09%/26.91%
LAD (J. Seo) at SD (C. Young) -113 46.83%/53.17%
WAS +153 (T. Armas) at STL (J. Marquis) 19.75%/80.25%
HOU (R. Oswalt) at CIN +142 (B. Claussen) 56.95%/43.05

Nothing glaring on that as people still bet on "name" teams like Boston & St. Louis regardless of whether they are light or heavy favorites.

BOS/TB

Same pitching matchup 10 days ago on April 18th. Bos won it, 7-4, at home. HOWEVER, both starters crashed in 7th inning so the game was Bos 1-0 after 6 full innings. (Personally, I can see how TB is a nice home underdog value but wouldn't touch this game.)

LAD/SD

Seo has been rocked the last 3 starts. The handicapper I subscribe to went against Seo in his last start & gave me money as Seo didn't last even 4 innings. Though, OTOH, Chris Young didn't have a good start the last time around leaving after 4 innings; as I read this in a fantasy page, "Young is expected to start as scheduled on Friday night against the Dodgers after medication helped alleviate reduced blood flow to an artery in his pitching thumb, manager Bruce Bochy said." (Personally, I'll still go against Seo just due to recent history bias.)

WAS/STL

Not much to say here factually... both pitchers have their moments & apparently the perception right now is how Washington's offense is not good in general. (Personally, if there was an angle to this game, in my opinion, it would be the Under 9).

HOU/CIN

My handicapper picked Hou (Oswalt) for tonight's matchup, and I have no qualms of following him. Oswalt is off to a great 'obvious' start, and Claussen is 1-2 in last 3 starts (one home win against the hapless Fla). Just looking at Claussen's last 3 starts vs Houston (8/31/05; 7/3/05; 7/31/04) scares me. Results of those were 0-10, 0-9, 0-8! He did last 5.1 to 6.0 innings in each of those, though.

Hope MicroBob doesn't go 0-4 either! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

<end of rambling> [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

* CalvinTy

[Kazuma]

I bet on tonights Buffalo Philly game. So far start of second period Buffalo is winning 2-1. Go Sabers!!

[MicroBob]

All - I have won 3 of my 4 baseball games so far tonight (TB, CIN, WAS).
The SD game is still pending...with LA leading 1-0 in the 7th (Seo got it together finally and is throwing a 2-hitter).


I also won in the NBA with CLE.


Calvinty - nice analysis. I am making most of my picks off the cuff these days and just aren't working that hard on them for the most part.

Part of the Cincy thinking went beyond the pitching matchup. The Reds hitters are knocking everybody around (whether it's Oswalt...or anybody else) and they have the potential to get into ANY team's bullpen early.

Fossum for TB can be pretty solid sometimes. When the lefty-slider of his is working it's devastating. I saw him get 14k's in a single-A game and it was one of the best pitching performances I've ever seen.
And I still like TB's scrappyness as a team.

My logic was like yours regarding Seo. He has just been super-sucky lately.

I don't read too much in the sports-betting forum here...but I don't recall seeing you post there that much. You should. Your MLB analysis would be welcome there.
If you do post there already then I'm definitely going to go more out of my way to read your analysis.