1500 WSOP Sat Bubble Hand

[LearnedfromTV]

I think this is an automatic fold. With 1/4th of the chips you are ~75% to get a seat. If someone were way ahead, you'd have to ignore his chips and lock up one seat and lower your chances, but it doesn't sound like this big stack is foldding in or guaranteed anything the way he's playing, and he's not big enough anyway.

Also, you're 75% based on chip position, but obviously, every time a big pot is played, the two participants give equity to the other two. As long as your opponents are willing to play against each other, just staying out of their way increases your equity beyond your chip equity.

There's no way calling with AK here is near 70-75% equity.

I think it gets interesting at QQ.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for the typo in my OP. I was the 100k stack not the 70k stack.

And I was also a little misleading saying the guy had been being crazy. really, the only thing he had done crazy was the K2 hand a few hands before, and he had been open raising more than the other players. Aside from those, he hadn't had any big showdowns.

I'm really not sure if I can count on one of them doing something stupid before I blind way down, but then again after he turned over Q6o here and I called, maybe I could've.

I'm still unsure about it, but I think I'm leaning more towards a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking about this a tiny bit more I'm convinced calling here is a pretty big mistake, you need a really compelling reason to put chips in the pot in this situation and I think you need to be confident you will be better then 75% to win at showdown in this spot, maybe even more since this guy is a bit of a donkey and will surely go to showdown with someone else soon.

[ISaidGoodDaySir]

this is why i hate satellites... i'm supposed to fold AK to one raise, how gay. Fold it and win some small pots every once in a while.

[locutus2002]

Hero folds.

4th place get 440, so you are playing for 1st-3rd gets 1560 (4th gets nothing- same payout structure).
Your stack (70K) is worth about ~$1000 (closer to 950). If you win then you and bigstack will swap positions and your stack will be worth ~$1400. You are risking $1000 to win $400 and need to be ~70% in the hand. (ICM approx.)

You are probably about 2/3 (probably a little under) in the hand against a pretty wide range of any pr any k any a any broadway good Q, good J good T.

You are a pretty strong player, I'd let it go. Chances are, one of the other players will make a "satellite" mistake especially when irritated at the big stack. You have position on the bigstack. You aren't that far behind the other players. All these factors favor a fold.

[locutus2002]

It's an easy fold if you have T100K.

Looking at it more closely, its probably correct to fold KK and slightly EV- to call with AA. Just sick! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ryanghall]

Calling this would be awful, especially with someone making boneheaded plays like open pushing for essentially 25x BB. Someone will bust long before you if you're smart.

Ryan