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#21
04-25-2006, 05:55 PM
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Re: I hate Situations like this...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You have 14 outs (9 clubs / 2 2s / 3 As). You've seen 15 cards by 6th. So 14/37 = the percentage of times you'll improve to win (or 37.8%). If seat 7 is on hearts then 5 of our outs need to be discounted. The other 9 are good because we're drawing to an A flush. So say seat 7 is on a flush draw, and we discount 5 of our outs by ~30%. This means we have 9 + .7*5 outs OR 12.5 outs. 12.5/37 = .3378. So we have a tiny overlay on that bet. [/ QUOTE ] Before flaming you, and insisting how utterly correct checking 6th was since both opponents were obviously going to call, I did a little research on 2 dimes. To my suprise, I found that Jon was actually 100% right about what happens in a 3 way pot. Given the action it is pretty unlikely that either of your opponents has 2 pair so in the worst case you are against an AK high flush draw and a pair of Jacks (say with the Jc AND another club). Even in this case you have 33.68% equity in the pot. In all other cases (say one guy has a lower flush draw and a pair of 3s, or both opponents just have pairs) you have anywhere from 34%-46% equity. My thinking was flawed because I was thinking about being heads up with just a big pair, in which case a check would have been correct. Everything else he said about the chance of a bet going in on the river was right on as well. It is nice to learn something new on here:-) Carlos [/ QUOTE ] I did the same two dimes playing around before I wrote my reply before too. I was similary surprised by the results. 
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#24
04-26-2006, 10:12 AM
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Re: I hate Situations like this...
[ QUOTE ]
I think its a pretty rare situation since ALL of hero's cards are live. I'd say the default play would be check. [/ QUOTE ] In my simulations I gave the guy with Jacks the Jc and the Qc, and he still came up with an edge. To figure out the default play, you have to look at what the average "liveness" of clubs, or in other words the average percentage of the deck that is clubs, when you have a 4 flush on 6th. In a neutral (having seen no other cards) deck when you have 4 clubs and 2 non-clubs, there are 9 remaining clubs out of 46 unseen cards. That is about 1 out of every 5 cards. So against 2 opponents on 6th, out of the 12 cards between them, on average, they would hold about 2.4 clubs. Thus, Giving the jacks 2 clubs in the hole, and assuming one other dead non-club (the other 8 folded on 3rd), makes this situation only slightly better than average. Therefore, I think the default is still to bet. It would would well worth anyones time to do further simulations to see how much adding more dead clubs effects the hand. Carlos
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#25
04-26-2006, 10:35 AM
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Re: I hate Situations like this...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think its a pretty rare situation since ALL of hero's cards are live. I'd say the default play would be check. [/ QUOTE ] In my simulations I gave the guy with Jacks the Jc and the Qc, and he still came up with an edge. To figure out the default play, you have to look at what the average "liveness" of clubs, or in other words the average percentage of the deck that is clubs, when you have a 4 flush on 6th. In a neutral (having seen no other cards) deck when you have 4 clubs and 2 non-clubs, there are 9 remaining clubs out of 46 unseen cards. That is about 1 out of every 5 cards. So against 2 opponents on 6th, out of the 12 cards between them, on average, they would hold about 2.4 clubs. Thus, Giving the jacks 2 clubs in the hole, and assuming one other dead non-club (the other 8 folded on 3rd), makes this situation only slightly better than average. Therefore, I think the default is still to bet. It would would well worth anyones time to do further simulations to see how much adding more dead clubs effects the hand. Carlos [/ QUOTE ] Carlos, what you're doing really shouldn't matter. It'd be like finding the probabilty of getting two heads by assuming the first coin is a heads, and then multiplying by the probability that coin is a heads.. MRBAA tried to pull this one time.
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#26
04-26-2006, 09:54 PM
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Re: I hate Situations like this...
I like a bet on 6th here because it looks like you made your flush and are trying to keep them in the hand and make 1 bet off them at every st. (why else would they check 6th if not out of fear?)
If they call, free SD (if you don't make the flush), if they fold, free pot ... betting 6th has to be +EV either way.
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#27
04-27-2006, 08:17 AM
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Re: I hate Situations like this...
As a newbie to stud I like this thread a lot - it shows a lot of the thought processes you go through as you play the hand.
At the risk of being a bore... what was the result?
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#29
04-28-2006, 08:35 AM
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Re: I hate Situations like this...
I agree with the 5th street raise. gain a bet lose non. this situation is in super syster 1 i beleive but in the book it is 4th street with low pair ace in the hole and kJ for opponent. "stud is all about getting extra bets" i forgot who said it but it is in super syster somewhere i imagine it was Chip Reese
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