NBA Playoffs - Series Wagers - Page 3

llabb · #21 05-11-2006, 04:32 PM

Lines up. You can take the overall Suns hedge at even money, or you can hedge on Suns in 6 and 7 combined for +140, or simply Suns in 7 for +290.

Obviously, taking Suns overall guarantees you a free Clips wager. Best move imo may be hedging in 6 or 7, as I think the Suns will win at least 1 more. I'm sticking with my 6 or 7 game wager, weighted towards Clips in 6 or Suns in 7.

In case you wanted to know, the juice looks like about 8 cents on specific series outcomes. Suns to win series are +100, and if I bet on all 3 outcomes of Suns in 5, 6, & 7, you get a line of -108.

Sadat X · #22 05-12-2006, 07:16 PM

llabb: your wager still looks good, Nash has at least one more W left in him.

I've thought about this a lot and I've decided against the Suns in 7 hedge. Suns in 7 is now at +271, probably from people betting on a repeat of last series.

I think I'm just gonna stick to my guns on this one. If the Suns moneyline approached +125 before tip-off, that might my pique my interest to the tune of a half unit, but thats as far as I'll go.

BTW, how do you feel about SA +124. I missed game 2, did they really look that bad?

llabb · #23 05-12-2006, 08:09 PM

Suns in 7 is a reasonable hedge for you. You can wait, and if the Suns get to 3-2, you can always hedge on them around +160 at that point, since Game 6 is on the Clippers' homecourt.

SA looked awful in Game 2. Dallas ran them out of the gym from the get go. That being said, SA was tired, and their team's gimpy. Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili are all hobbled to various degrees, Parker most of all probably. That made it even worse when Avery inserted Devin Harris into the starting lineup, who blew by the Spurs.

But that was the Spurs' 3rd game in 5 days, with almost no rest or prep between series. They will have had 4 days off for Game 3, and I think Pop will make the necessary adjustments. I like the Spurs +4 for Game 3.

llabb · #24 05-23-2006, 07:27 PM

2nd round results: 1-2-1, -1.2u
Total series wagers results: 7-4-1, +1.9u

Conference Finals begin.

Detroit in 6 or 7, hedged for Det in 6 and Mia in 7.
Personally weighting it towards Det in 6.
All outcomes combined for -160.

Edit: Updated odds and record.

llabb · #25 05-24-2006, 07:55 PM

Dallas-Phoenix series:

Dallas in 5 or 6, hedged for Dallas in 7, for a combined line of -160.

llabb · #26 05-25-2006, 05:12 PM

Updated series odds are interesting. Miami outcome odds and Detroit in 7 outcome odds have all gone down. This is expected, since Mia or Det in 7 are more likely after Mia won Game 1. So I will stick with my initial wager there.

But Dallas-Phoenix odds have not moved as much. It seems that the books think that the Game 1 win means more for Miami than it does for Phoenix. This opens up a reasonable opportunity to put in a wager on Dallas in 7. Since Dal in 5 now looks unlikely, I have added some money on Dal in 7, to end up primarily at Dal in 6 or 7.

llabb · #27 06-04-2006, 07:19 AM

Will update this and other threads when I get a chance, busy this weekend. Lots of time before NBA Finals start anyway.

But real quick right now, I think there is value in some of the series lines, particularly Mavs in 6 and Heat in 7. This thing is still being priced at a 2-2-1-1-1 style series, but it's 2-3-2. Homecourt plays a huge factor into proper spreads, and this one really looks like it's being priced wrong to me. Am I off here, or did Pinny screw this one up?

No reason the line on the Heat in 6 should be much different from Heat in 7. And Mavs in 6 is actually on Mavs' homecourt, should not be priced so far different from Mavs in 5 or Mavs in 7. So I took some Mavs in 6 at +590 and some Heat in 7 at +740. But the Mavs in 6 has value down to the low to mid +400's, and Heat in 7 has value down to somewhere near +500 imo, without having made exact calculations yet.

As bettors and Pinny both realize this, the lines will even out by Thursday imo. Heat in 6 and Heat in 7 will get close to having similar lines, while Dallas in 5, 6, and 7 will get close to each other as well. Will hedge after they do, since I've already taken the lines with value, if I'm right. (For Heat fans/backers, Heat in 5 also has extra value. +1150, should be much lower in the sub+1000 range, since Game 5 is at Miami.)

Sadat X · #28 06-04-2006, 03:18 PM

Good catch llabb, they fixed the lines. Mavs in 6 now at +315. Heat in 5 went all the way down to +550. Amazing that Pinny would make a mistake like that, forgetting about the 2-3-2 format.

llabb · #29 06-15-2006, 06:27 AM

Conference Finals results: 1-1, -0.4u
Total series wagers results: 8-5-1, +1.5u

As stated, I've been away, but thought I'd update this thread with the current strategy. I was too right for my own good on the Pinny pre-series lines. They screwed it up, and then cancelled my very +EV wagers.

The one I would have wanted to keep most was Mavs in 6 at almost +600. But I found it and was able to keep it on another book at +500, still great when the Pinny "proper" line was close to +300. The only other outcome I've taken was Mavs in 5 at +410. I weighted it slightly towards Mavs in 6 for a combined line of:

Mavs in 5 or 6 at +180

Since this is +odds, I may still hedge another outcome later, such as hedging for Game 7, if it gets to 3-2.

Anyway, if anyone is interested in this, even if you didn't get in pre-series, Mavs in 5 or 6 is still a decent wager even at current prices imo. If you had even 1 of these outcomes taken earlier (adjusted Mavs in 6 was +300, Mavs in 5 was +500), you could take the other at current prices for a combined +120 or so. If you open both positions entirely new right now, it is about -120 or so, still decent and can be hedged risk-free at 3-2 if needed.

llabb · #30 06-20-2006, 08:20 PM

Okay, I've lost the Finals series wager so far, since I didn't hedge for the Mavs or Heat in 7 like I normally would have (partially due to Pinny cancelling my bets, but can't cry over spilled milk I guess). Still up a tiny bit if I stop here, but I will risk the ever-so-slightly winning record to try and recover the Finals portion lost.

Betting 1.4u to win 1.0u on Dallas to win the championship at -140.

Should have taken it last night when it was -120, but didn't get to it. If Dallas wins tonight, then I will hedge with Miami in Game 7 which should be +250 to +300 ish odds. If Dallas loses tonight, then I simply lose a -140 bet, whereas the Dallas moneyline tonight is worse than -300.