5/10: Are Hands Like This Why I'm Suddenly a Losing Player?

[RunDownHouse]

I'll often mix up preflop against good players who I see regularly in the games. If the opponent is thinking and sees a decent amount of me, an UTG raise/cap is narrowing my range a ton.

[Shooternewt]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll often mix up preflop against good players who I see regularly in the games. If the opponent is thinking and sees a decent amount of me, an UTG raise/cap is narrowing my range a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few threads have discussed this, but I prefer to cap more hands than capping less. If you cap 88, 99, and a few others HU, you get the same result.

[poker_n00b]

yup, cap more not less. also why in hell r u folding river? i might even raise river for value based on reads. btw, where are ur reads?

[kidcolin]

RDH, I think this is a really bad hand. Not much else to say about it. I can't imagine not calling that river after you've vastly under-represented your hand. He could easily be value betting TT-88 here.

To All,

A few have dissed the turn call + river fold combo. I just want to note that in and of itself, this isn't necessarily an incorrect line. There are situations where we have a marginal hand with some showdown value but our opponents play in such a way that they'll never bet a worse hand on the river. Then it's often worth investing the turn bet since we'll often see a free showdown.

However, in this hand, you'd have to have a pretty sick read to lay it down on this board in this situation.

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call the turn, you must call the river


[/ QUOTE ]

why?

op: I agree w/ everyone else to cap pf. Also, since you didn't cap pf, I think you should call this river, villian is probably not putting you on QQ, so he could be value betting TT here.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
A few threads have discussed this, but I prefer to cap more hands than capping less. If you cap 88, 99, and a few others HU, you get the same result.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
yup, cap more not less. also why in hell r u folding river? i might even raise river for value based on reads. btw, where are ur reads?


[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with capping more in position and less OOP?
Do you guys really cap stuff like AJ OOP against solid players? Somehow I doubt it.

[krishan]

posting blind.

Not capping is atrocious. You might do it occasionally with AA for deception but there is no postflop advantage to giving up the preflop equity advantage. It's actually a disadvantage because having the initiative on ace high flops is good generally.

Combinatorically here is where we stand on the flop.

Board: Ad As 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.2475 % 50.74% 01.51% { QcQh }
Hand 2: 47.7525 % 46.24% 01.51% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Pretty good equity. We are getting 2/1 odds to call down and have 50% equity. That's enough for me even though when we call the river bet we are often going to lose because most players will check a pair we beat there.

On the turn it looks like this.

Board: Ad As 5d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.7634 % 47.59% 01.17% { QcQh }
Hand 2: 51.2366 % 50.07% 01.17% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Not a huge equity change.

By the river it looks like this.


Board: Ad As 5d 6d Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.3226 % 38.71% 01.61% { QcQh }
Hand 2: 59.6774 % 58.06% 01.61% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Now even if you discount 99 on the river you are getting odds to call though it's starting to get really close.


Board: Ad As 5d 6d Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.0000 % 24.00% 02.00% { QcQh }
Hand 2: 74.0000 % 72.00% 02.00% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }

One thing to consider though is your have successfully underrepresented your hand by not capping preflop. Villain will NEVER put you on QQ here. That means there is a chance he'll value bet KJs on the river. That plus the odd chance that he is getting laggy with KQs makes this a call in my mind.

As it is, I like the idea of folding the river in certain spots where a scare card comes that reduces the value of your hand in a subtle way. Consider the same hand where you have JJ and the river is a T. That I think is probably a fold and there isn't a huge amount of difference between that hand and this one.

Krishan

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
He could easily be value betting TT-88 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry for forgetting to post this the first time around, but villian is a good player I see a decent amount of. If it was you and me HU in this pot and you value bet TT here, I'd immediately think you were much less good than I had previously thought.

[krishan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He could easily be value betting TT-88 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry for forgetting to post this the first time around, but villian is a good player I see a decent amount of. If it was you and me HU in this pot and you value bet TT here, I'd immediately think you were much less good than I had previously thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. A read of a good player makes everything less favorable. I still think you can call the river.

Krishan

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. A read of a good player makes everything less favorable. I still think you can call the river.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

but not nearly as terrible as the masses indicate - agreed?