No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot

[Sunny Mehta]

Jason,

do you have the nut flush draw?

[FGators]

[ QUOTE ]
Jason,

do you have the nut flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

He says at the bottom that he never had a draw on this hand.

[Sunny Mehta]

okay, sorry missed the edit.......I agree with the turn thought process.....the river I'd either full pot or check behind (but likely fold if he full potted into me), but I almost never bet half the pot on the river.......

[D104]

Great post -

I think that when you see that check-call flop from the PFR HU, he most likely has a piece of the flop, but doesnt want to get raised. QJ/87/maybe a gutter like 9T. So he figures check-call is the best line. As for the turn, once he check-calls again, you can be fairly certain that he does not have a hand like A7 or A6, he would have led or raised to price out draws. Either he has a Q that he wants showdown, or that turn helped him. My money is either on QJ or 56 of spades-type hand.

The river bet is just great - I have got to work that into my game.

D

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

FWF,

This is a sweet post, and it's basically what Al (AJo) tells me every time he sees me play a hand like this. He thinks that I overestimate people's ability to call me down thin, and that my bet has very little value.

You make extremely good points, let me see if I have any answers.


[ QUOTE ]
I think that with every subsequent PSB you put in the chances of villain sticking around with a worse hand get worse and worse. If he wasn't drawing or slowplaying, I think one of two things is likely: AK-type hands which are calling or (more likely given the flop action) KK/JJ-type hands which may not have believed you on the turn but now are more likely to believe you on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in seeing how often an opponent check-called the flop with ace hi. I really don't have a clue how often this happens against me as I rarely see people play ace hi like this on the flop and then show it down. I do agree that the chances people stick around are slim, but I do think that once an opponent makes a decision on the turn to call me down, they often call the river as well. I do a lot of giving up after a turn barrel here for this exact reason.

[ QUOTE ]
I know you're aggressive and all that jazz but I think you're overrating how often JJ is going to just call off two straight PSBs with an ace on board (especially given the previous PSB before the ace hit). The lower you get on his spectrum of non-set pocket pairs, the less likely he is to call so I think that the chances of getting called by a worse hand are slim (in the case of KK/JJ) to none (in the case of 88 or 55).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where I think I see a gap in your logic, from my perspective. My opponent has a brain, lets presume, and because of this shouldn't he realize that his calldown with JJ is the same calldown as with 55? I obviously am not value betting worse. You seem to think of it as a gradient, I think though that most opponents will lump all their hands that don't beat a value bet but beat a bluff in one group. There definitely is a slight gradient, but it's fairly insignificant IMO. Generally the tougher the player, the flatter this gradient.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a missed draw/two pair/a set/a pocket pair he's folding/AK-AJ much more often than he has (and calls with) 88-JJ/KK/A2-A5 so I don't bet this very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's fair. I think this river decision, isolated by itself is probably very close to neutral expected value. But as part of a bigger plan, I think it really helps my game. The more times I can fire big on the river like this, the easier time I have getting paid off with big hands. It's also much tougher to play against an opponent capable of these very thin value bets, because their range on their psb's on the river is much larger and you can't really think that your opponent has a big hand or air, but maybe top pair.

It also helps me...

[ QUOTE ]

As for your bet on the turn "for value"-sure he's not necessarily pot-committed if he calls but he's still got to worry about playing OOP on the river in what is a big pot. Given that you're not exactly known for your small value bets and post-oak bluffs and you like to apply pressure he's going to have to make a tough decision for a lot of money if he calls the turn so you can't quite claim that his turn call can easily be a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pick up the small pots for this exact reason. People give up on the turn vs me all the time for reasons like this. And when they call the turn, they often also call the river because they made up their minds on the turn to call me down. This all plays right into my game plan where I can pressure my opponents in such a way where even if I am giving up on the river fairly often with nothing, I am still going to have the necessary image to get paid off in the big pots with the goods and also push people off small pots who don't want to deal with what they might interpret as overagressive crazy river crap.

ML4L used to tell me to not let my opponents know what I'm capable of. However, the more I play this game the more im interested in letting my opponents know what I can do with very thin value bets, because it really helps me control pots and extract value.

The more I think about poker, the more I realize that there are some very good players who make very big technical errors. I think the general 2p2 mantra on a hand like this would be to check the turn and bet the river, or vice versa. But the important thing to do in poker is in my mind is to set up your opponents. Lots of the very successful big game players get away with technical mistakes that even a very beginner on 2p2 might not make, but the reality is that the benefits of working an overal gameplan on an opponent successfuly far outweighs hedging perfect Sklansky-dollar bets.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

Coltrane,

I would definitely fold the river if he led into me.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretend everything was the same but the turn was an offsuit 3 or something. Do you check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

You know the answer to this question.... Sometimes.

The fact that I have ace hi on a draw heavy board means that this sometimes is typically a check in this situation. But it all depends and any good player has to mix up his decision here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I know you like this move a lot, but if you occassionally check behind made hands in spots like this, it might help set up for bets like this at other times. That, and if he gets the idea that you're making bets like this, people will (or should) start checking a lot of made hands to you to bet for them. Wouldn't it be sick if he flipped up AQ or something here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well back to what I said in the FWF reply, I really don't all out bluff the river in a spot like this very often. I would love people to think that I am. Relative to the field I am definitely firing more big river bets than mostly everyone, but that's because my game plan involves me betting big with varying strenghts of hands.

Sure, it definitely happens where I make a thin value bet and I get called by a better hand that played itself a little passively trying to combat my strategy. But in the long run pacifying my opponents is great for me because I will often fire into pots with draws (not even good draws, but gutshots, etc) and an opponent is making gigantic mistakes there playing passively. Again, don't put this hand in a nutshell, because it won't make sense why I'm doing it.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

You do better at poker when you are harder to play against. In my mind because of the action in this hand and the timing, I have the best hand here a mass majority of the time. I am not getting called often by worse hands, but it definitely does happen. I am also getting called by better hands, but in my head that will happen less than when i get called by worse hands. But even if this river bet was slightly -EV, I would still do it for the reasons I stated earlier.

-Jason

[Ansky]

The discussion is this thread is very ++++++EV.

[Number27]

I would probably play it the same way until the river where I would check behind; but just listening to the thought process is invaluable.

A question I have about the strategy of potting it so as to represent a monster or air- Do you ever pot it with air here and under what circumstances? It seems like you would be forced to make this play at least one out of ten times you miss the ace on the turn to represent air when you do it in the future.