$16 - Overpair on scary board

[donkeykong2]

i think this is alright, betting 600 twice is basicly the same thing

[eurythmech]

The reason why I'm doing this is that you're not thinking poker you're trying to (seemingly) craft an understanding of the game that only experience and poker intelligence will teach you, through the use of - horribly bad - maths.

Do you even know what it is you're calculating here?
And how it applies to this particular hand?

First, let me correct the math, ignoring for a moment the idiotic assumption that villain is on a range of 100%:

The probability that one specific opponent holds two clubs is not (10/47) squared, how on earth did you come up with that number? The probability of the first card he holds being a club is (10/47), then multiply that with the odds for the second card (9/46), which leaves us at roughly 4.16%.

And then, what causes you to believe that you can just add these probabilities for three villains?
I mean...why do you resort to math when you're so horrible at it?

Actually, an exact calculation would be a bit tedious, so I won't do it. It'd go like this:

If Villain A has 0 clubs then go on to Villain B, if he has got 0 clubs go to Villain C, add this to Villain A has 1 club, Villain B has none, etc.

But in any case, a better assumption should be 1 - the cubed probability that one player does not have two clubs, which is about 12%.

So basically, you end up pretty close by just guessing at math. If guessing is all you have, I suggest you resort to trying the poker approach.

[Kevin8423]

Or you can just assume they didn't flop a flush since it won't affect things hardly at all and play the hand from there? I think OP is looking for reasoning for or against how he played the hand, not a battle on how to calculate an insignificant percentage of flush flopping.

[Jaqrabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you can just assume they didn't flop a flush since it won't affect things hardly at all and play the hand from there? I think OP is looking for reasoning for or against how he played the hand, not a battle on how to calculate an insignificant percentage of flush flopping.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is basically where I was at. The 12% is a rough estimate arrived at using what I've found to be a fairly effective form of shorthand - it's easy to use during live play, and doesn't require a calculator. All it's intended to show is that the flush possibility is pretty small, and not something you need to sweat hugely. I never assumed anybody played a ridiculous two clubs, and wouldn't let the possibility that somebody played 24[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] scare me off a bet. If my phrasing it as "1 in 8" suggested to you that I was treating that as concrete odds, then I was unclear, and that's my fault. I'll try to be clearer next time. Regardless, I still like sence's line a little better than the shove (not that I hate the shove).

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
The chance of flopping a flush is about 4%, I think (been a while since I've run the numbers, so this may not be quite right). So given you have three other players in, I think it's about a 12% chance that one of them flopped a flush

[/ QUOTE ]

Erm. If all three had suited cards. And what are the odds of that?

And if they happened to be the right suit, and not the three wrong ones.

[Scotty_12]

This thread got ridiculously derailed.

Pot flop, shove a non club turn.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread got ridiculously derailed.

Pot flop, shove a non club turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


shoving flop is fine too, and i honestly dont think there will be a huge difference in the end.

[eurythmech]

[ QUOTE ]
This thread got ridiculously derailed.

Pot flop, shove a non club turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, well...thread was over long ago.
Not much to add to what was already said.