20/40 River

[ALL1N]

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Why can't he have AK again? If he's not just a TAG, but a player you know personally or reads hands well enough, say, to dump AK to SBs flop 3bet i'm with you. If it's just some guy with TAGy stats i think AK is just as likely as Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q in terms of how he'd play it. Combinatorically you are slightly in favor of him having a diamond but when he checks through you get 0 bets which means you have to be right _alot_ and being right has to actually get you more bets than normal.

Surf

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I guess it just boils down to the fact that I think most TAGs are 3-betting this flop or raising the turn with AK. And you question that being right gets us more bets?

If UTG has a diamond as we (I) expect, we will usually win ~2 river bets - yes, I disagree that he's bet/folding a diamond HU, so 2 allows for Ch,Ch,B,Ca,R,F,F or Ch,Ch,B,F,R,Ca. Betting will nearly always net us exactly 1 here barring the rare circumstance that SB overcalls.

I don't expect to have convinced you though, since we disagree on 2 factors in the hand (AK's play and the non-nut diamond bet/folding HU). [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Surf]

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I guess it just boils down to the fact that I think most TAGs are 3-betting this flop or raising the turn with AK. And you question that being right gets us more bets?

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My thinking is that if SB is not overcalling he's not calling risking you overcalling behind, so the rewards are not as great compared to a c/r that gets you 3-4BB instead of 2.

You're right that a non-nut diamond probably isn't bet-folding, i disagree more with how I'd expect AK to play - 3betting the flop or raising the turn would be a pretty big spew because best case (with all the action thus far) he's hoping for a chop, and his opponent may be freerolling on him.

This may stem from your greater experience with aggro players in higher games, and my recent(disturbing) trend to give my opponents far too much credit for both higher level anaylsis and knowing when to slow down.

Surf