$1/2 - Can this Boat be Folded?

[Xylocain]

I dont fold this. I expect to see an A a lot of the time from a bad player or air from an agressive player or a 5 for a chop or a higher PP...
(maybe live is different tho.)

[marchron]

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if that is the range you give him then obviously a fold is correct.

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Uh, not obv. At the beginning of this thread, his range was a 6, i.e. Hero is drawing to one out, that's an obv fold.

If the range is 2 sixes and a five, that makes things a little different. 67% of the time you lose 2 bets. 33% of the time you win 3.25 bets (half the pot that's there when the action is back to you).

EV = (-2 * .67)+(3.25 * .33) = -0.27

So, it's a -EV situation to calldown, but only if you're absolutely, positively sure on your read. Note what happens if there's even a 6% chance that our Villan is pulling this with something we beat:

EV = (-2 * .64) + (3.25 * .30) + (7.5 * .06) = 0.14

It's probably a wash given that some of his hands are overpairs that will catch on the river, but you get the point.

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Do also keep in mind that if Villain has a 5 it's not an insta-chop; we have a three-out draw for a better fives full. Granted, so does he if his kicker is higher than a 6, so EV-wise that may be a wash, too, but we only need a hairsbreadth more equity to call given this read and three outs will swing it.