&&& Thu Nite CFB Kentucky @ South Carolina Thread &&&

[BobJoeJim]

My computer rankings have Kentucky 9.3 points better on a neutral field, but South Carolina's rating appears to be getting dragged down by a few of the (many) known flaws I haven't fixed yet... still I'm inclined to lean Kentucky as long as they're getting more than a field goal, I trust my rankings enough to like that large of a margin. I haven't actually broken it down in detail though...

[livin_a_lie]

I like the over 57, SC is kinda banged up on D and Kentucky has been anything it wants on offense. [censored] at home should put up some points too.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm on UK +4 from early game thread. What do we expect tonite?

[/ QUOTE ]

1u u57.5/-105. Line looks too high to me, my early season model [can be quite shaky this early] on totals agrees.

[Austiger]

Kentucky +5 now. Wow. That line surprises me a lot. Is that all the doctor's doing?

[NajdorfDefense]

It hit 6 at some places for a microsecond. Tried to hit it and it was gone.

[NajdorfDefense]

SOUTH CAROLINA (-4.0) 30 Kentucky 23
04:45 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Oct-04 - Stats Matchup
Kentucky’s Andre Woodson is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, but he’ll likely struggle tonight against a very good South Carolina pass defense that’s yielded just 3.4 yards per pass play (to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average defense) and has not allowed more than 3.9 yppp in any game (3.9 yppp to Georgia, 3.1 yppp to LSU). The Gamecocks are a bit worse than average defending the run, so Kentucky’s very good ground game (236 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play) will post some good numbers. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has turned to freshman Chris Smelley at quarterback in place of senior Blake Mitchell and Smelley has been good so far in averaging 6.6 yppp on 81 pass plays against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Kentucky’s defense is only 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) so the Gamecocks should move the ball well as long as one of their two injured running is able to play backs (Mike Davis and Cory Boyd are both listed as questionable, but I suspect at least one will play). My math model favors South Carolina by 4 points, so the line is fair, but Kentucky applies to a negative 27-68-1 ATS situation. That situation is not quite as negative for dogs of more than 3 points, so I’ll lean with South Carolina at -3 ½ or more and I’d consider South Carolina a Strong Opinion at -3 or less.

[rush66]

Damn it, bob caused this move. Coming over the top Ken +5.5 -107. Stupid me.

[MicroBob]

Dr Bob's effect on the lines is crazy...especially since so many of the people doing the actual moving surely have been getting killed by Dr. Bob's picks in recent weeks yet they seem completely undeterred.

Many people I would have thought would think very short-term when following a tout and after just 2 or 3 wks of losing would say, "forget this guy. he sucks."

And the ones who are intelligent enough to know that short-term is mostly meaningless you would think would also be intelligent enough to stay away when the line goes so much worse.

Weird. Dr. Bob says it's okay at -3.5 and is good at -3.
So a ton of people decide to jump on at -4 and -5.

I wonder what would happen if Dr. Bob actually connected the dots for all his readers on when the line should NOT be taken.

One expects his readers to infer that it's not so good at -4 and definitely not at -5 as well know since he never said to take the game at that line.

But if Dr. Bob actually directly said, "I do not recommend a bet at -4 or worse" instead of just implying it I think it would actually make a huge difference.

[dankhank]

my view is a little different. the reason bob has moved the lines big time the past few years, is not because he has thousands of subscribers, but because he has a select set of subscribers who are sharp and bet his plays big.

obviously there are also some square subscribers, who keep the steam going after the numbers have already moved significantly. but i think if his numbers continue to move as much as they did last season, that it's a sign of continuing sharp confidence in bob, and should not be interpreted as a complete square scenario like microbob described.

i would be surprised if dr. bob moves the lines as much this week as he has in the past. a move from -3.5 to -5 is substantial but not huge, especially when you would expect a thursday night game to move towards the favorite without the doctor's recommendation. i wonder what other plays he released today, and how much they moved.

[RichAM]

whats everyones assumption of the total ... under 57 looks like a good play