20/40 foxwoods passive 88 vs LAG

[Kevin J]

For the most part, I agree with you Barron, but 3-4 hours isn't alot of hands in a live game. It's very possible he just hasn't had much to 3-bet with until now. I'd give him respect, but I wouldn't narrow his range down to just big pairs and AK.

I think leading out and going for a 3-bet on the flop is fine. After it went check-check, I'd bet the turn 100% of the time against a lag. He's either got a monster or 88 is almost certainly the best hand. -IMO

Depending on opponent's tendencies, I think check/fold, bet/fold, and check/raise, are all possible river lines.

[DcifrThs]

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how can the same mistake be made in every single post?

please read the OP.

the villian is a lag post flop who hasn't 3bet preflop in the 2-3 hours OP has been sitting at the table in a 20/40 game where probably 80-90% of hands are raised pf

how is this not hugely significant info?

you really think this guy hasn't seen a hand like AQs/KQs/AJs in the 3 hrs he's been there?

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3 hours is nothing

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ummm, yea...3 hours is nothing for a lag postflop who is in a ton of hands to have never been seen 3betting a preflop raise.

that is a lot of time...like 120 hands...

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Like maybe half of that.


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so you're saying that you get 20 hands/hour live? that each hand takes on average 3 full minutes? i'd be willing to make prop bet on that. i'll take the over on 20hands/hour.

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his range is extremely narrow given this info. it is probably AK (16, possibly discounted), AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99

so without even taking ito account that he may not even 3bet AK to a tight player's UTG open, its 2.25:1 against him having AK.

why would you bet out the flop here?


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You don't have to have the best hand every time for leading to be correct.

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yea but by leading you don't gain any new info b/c OP said he is a lag post flop meaning that he would likely raise w/ AhK or AKh (and AKhh) so of the 16 (undiscounted ) times he has AK, half of them he's raising plus all the times he has any of the other hands (read: all pairs). he certainly isn't folding lol.

and now you've put n 2 bets on the flop going into the turn with almost exactly the same info that you had if you just check called.

Barron

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You aren't leading for information although you will get it since his 3-bet isn't automatic. You are leading to pjut pressure on hands with no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or pair.

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hands w/ no heart? you mean put pressure on AcAd-9c9d? interesting logic.

or do you mean no hand AND no pair...like AcKd-AsKc (i.e. 9 total hands vs. 36 hands that you are behind)?

that doesn't make sense. the odds aren't anywhere near enough in your favor even if you've only seen him play 60 total hands.

out of 169 (or whatever that # is i forget) hands, that means if you assume he always 3bets AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AKs, that he went 60 hands in a 20/40 game without a raise in front of him and having those hands, or a raise in front of him and him not seeing AQ(s), AJs, KQs, 88.

with 60 hands he can get a little more leeway, but even so, the man has never 3 bet and that is significant enough to narrow his range down on the flop (and given that he 3 bet a tight player's UTG open).

i think leading the flop ehre is wrong for all the reasons i've already mentioned. especially given the 2 last bits of logic you've stated. neither of those are a case for leading. he has 6 outs and is correct to call if he doesn't have you crushed already.

Barron

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We aren't that sure of his range. Even if we were, I was suggesting that leading the flop puts more pressure on him to fold if he does not have a heart.

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the point is: he is a lag postflop and isn't folding given his 3bet.

Barron

[Hobbs.]

so I kind of suck and haven't really read through what's being debated in this thread, but I wanted to throw in that this is a spot where I very often c/c the flop and donk the turn. If raised on the turn (player dependent) I usually call and c/f the river.