Hand from Borgata WPT

[g-p]

actionjeff,

wtf man???? i agree with you

[FoldEqu1ty]

I agree with ActionJeff et al - the way this thread was phrased/conducted is really condescending and annoying. This hand is just a range exercise like any other, and it is very simple and clear cut imo:

All the turn stuff is irrelavent imo. It's just "He thinks that I thinks that he thinks that I thinks......" and could mean anything. Based on your preflop read, there is "a pretty decent chance BB has a huge hand here". I would say that his range leans heavily towards big pairs here - a straightforward, tight player, is imo highly unlikely to consider AK a monster at this stage of the tournament, and would not have been so sheepish about it preflop - in his mind it is a drawing hand. QQ and JJ fold that turn, leaving his range heavily weighted towards TT, KK and AA here. Even if we add AK to his range, because of positional disadvantage a call here is still -EV.

[ZJ123]

When first reading it over, i found it hard to believe that he would be angle shooting you, by meaning to call, but actually raise, but what bothers me his he threw out Two chips, A 1k and a 5k Chip which there is no way that you can throw out two chips and them be equal to 1300. So what was he thinking? did he think you bet 1500 and meant to throw that out? or Does he have AA or another huge hand and intended to raise. I think from everything added together, including ur preflop reads, he has AA or KK or less possibly AK/TT. I don't think a call is bad if you decide that he was genuine in his live mis click on the turn, i think thats actually preferred, but with c/folding most bets, unless he bets really small.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
When first reading it over, i found it hard to believe that he would be angle shooting you, by meaning to call, but actually raise, but what bothers me his he threw out Two chips, A 1k and a 5k Chip which there is no way that you can throw out two chips and them be equal to 1300. So what was he thinking? did he think you bet 1500 and meant to throw that out? or Does he have AA or another huge hand and intended to raise. I think from everything added together, including ur preflop reads, he has AA or KK or less possibly AK/TT. I don't think a call is bad if you decide that he was genuine in his live mis click on the turn, i think thats actually preferred, but with c/folding most bets, unless he bets really small.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was implying that he meant to throw out a 1k and a 500 chip rather than a 1k and 5k chip. That is not the key to this hand.

[mastr]

Hey Justin, I had a hand extremely extremely similar happen to me at same event...

Thoughts on the matter, in kind of list form because its easier for me to sum up all my thoughts that way.

1. Given that he's competent/you're considered scary player/ he's BB/the UTG limper, I don't see his raise size as being necessarily an indicator of anything other then the ordinary. However, I feel given all previous hand setup situations, that he wouldn't raise without a fairly strong hand because there are tons of hands he's not going to want to play in-between you and an armenian 300 bb's deep. I would expect JJ+ AJs+ AQ+ and most broadway suiteds as the range although you probably have a much better feel for the range being at the table.

2. his check on the flop is terrifyingly strong, in the I have the deck crippled and its a rainbow board sort of way (HOWEVER, with lots of players that will not exclude AK here, not to mention the concept of how hard it is putting in 300 bb's if he checks this flop esp with an aggressive guy in UTG) Therefore, the better of a player you view him to be, the less likely I feel him to have our set beat on the flop, and the worse he is the more likely that is.

#3 Granted that I'm paranoid about these things, this has allllll the makings of an angle shoot in his turn raise. Its his way of being tricky, and perhaps he's thinking enoguh to know that UTG is crazy and maybe can be tricked into bluff cold-3betting here.

Everything about this hand makes me want to fold, and I'm thinking back at the chip colors at borg, and there's no real way to pretend the 5k is a 500... especially with the long pause. I'm somewhat baffled by his claiming the intention to call. If we call this bet, the river is so bad for us to play, as he doesn't shut down AK if he had played it this way for value UNLESS he truly did mean to just call because he's passive enough to feel he put enough chips in with that hand, which I doubt is the case.

In the end, even though I feel I've said nothing, I honestly think I throw it away because I think we're beat a ton here, we have miserable reverse implied odds, our table seems soft from the description given..

As I read this over I hate everything, and feel the key issue has to be his mindset for checking the flop, which is much easier to divine with you actually being there. I'd base the rest of the entire hand on how you perceived his body language as he checked the flop and your opinion of his general skill level.

Lastly though, if you believed him to be genuine in wanting to have just called, an argument could be made for calling this turn raise and c/f any river bet he makes. this mindset comes from the thought that your call should lock him out a good % of time, and he shouldn't be in a spot here the requires a bluff now on the river when we check, and more importantly it seems unliekly if he somehow does have a KQss hand that he turns it into a bluff on a blank river and just lets it go check check

[benlj21]

"perhaps he's thinking enough to know that UTG is crazy and maybe can be tricked into bluff cold-3betting here."
I didn't think about this but I kinda doubt it, though only ZJ can say if that's possible really.

Also, I forgot to say that I recommend folding, though mastr makes some good points about how he would play AK differently depending on how good he is. It just seems like he checked the flop either because he had AA/KK, to slowplay, or he likely had TT and was just giving up but now spiked a set.

[Mr. S-inator]

This is easy. He was adamant about meaning to just flat call which telegraphs a weak hand. The player, unless retarded, must know that his protestation exposes his hand as weak.

In this hand, only the nuts or close to the nuts would want to seem weak. Any other weak hand and the guy would be quiet.

He does not want to be put under pressure when he has mediocre holdings or a tough spot. This is a very important game for him. Ten thousand dollars means a lot. No way in hell would he A) make such a big mistake by throwing in 5k B)after making such a mistake, let everyone know the strength of his hand. He wants to induce a stupid bluff from the Armenian and thinks that your holding is too weak to play.

Furthermore, His range is what? AA KK AK? That alone makes it a fold but when you analyze his speech, the decision is simpler. I'm a bad player so I call and c/f river but this is potentially a fold.

[iRockPoker03]

Did you consider that he might be going reverse reverse psychology on you?

like he set it up from the beginning with junk and the intent of acting like a newb with a big hand

[ZeeJustin]

There is a very important aspect of this hand that no one has even mentioned yet.

[Crash0veride]

The fact that he was NOT upset at the ruling means a ton to me. I think if he meant to call and "accidentally" raised but felt like his chips in the middle were safe weather it's a call or a raise does point towards a big hand. I Don't think he checks TT or AK on the flop vs. two callers.