Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?

[maverickai]

I shall attempt to calculate... first time ever. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

A) MP3's hand: Set

we would win when we hit our flush or straight:

7 flush cards. However this has to be discounted as cards such as 9 and 3 hearts would give MP3 a fullhouse.

Thus discounted to 7 flush cards

3 Ts to form a straight (T of spades is included in the flush outs)

Therefore, Total 10 outs (21.7% to hit outers on river)

So villian's chances of holding a set:
Villians pocket pair could be
1) 99 - 3 ways to form 99
2) 33 - 3 ways to form 33
3) JJ - 3 ways to form JJ -> I discount to 1.5, given he didn't raise pre-flop


B) MP3's hand: AJ

With our overs, we can add
3 outs for K
3 outs for Q

1) AJ - 12 ways to form AJ (less J spades)

MP3's hand: AA, KK, QQ AK
I choose to discount these, as no aggression from MP3

In totality, there are 19.5 hands MP3 could be holding, and we have to hit our flush or straight to beat him.

So let's see if my turn cap (4BB) was worth it. Let's assume I cap on the turn,
and the river was checked down to simplify things.

EV = (7.5/19.5) * (0.217) * (14.50BB) + (7.5/19.5) * (1-0.217) * (-4BB) + (12/19.5)*(0.348)*(14.5BB) + (12/19.5)*(1-0.348)*(-4BB)
= 1.50BB

Is my reasoning rite? I could have gotten my card ranges wrong, but how about my calculation method? I tried to reference the way Mr Wookie worked to evaluate a Clarkmeister web page . But I think things are a bit different as I am still drawing and there is the river to go.

I believe a lot of my workings are erroroneous, but I'm willing to take all of you as my teachers... I want to IMPROVE!!!

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
I shall attempt to calculate... first time ever. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

A) MP3's hand: Set

we would win when we hit our flush or straight:

7 flush cards. However this has to be discounted as cards such as 9 and 3 hearts would give MP3 a fullhouse.

Thus discounted to 7 flush cards

3 Ts to form a straight (T of spades is included in the flush outs)

Therefore, Total 10 outs (21.7% to hit outers on river)

So villian's chances of holding a set:
Villians pocket pair could be
1) 99 - 3 ways to form 99
2) 33 - 3 ways to form 33
3) JJ - 3 ways to form JJ -> I discount to 1.5, given he didn't raise pre-flop


B) MP3's hand: AJ

With our overs, we can add
3 outs for K
3 outs for Q

1) AJ - 12 ways to form AJ (less J spades)

MP3's hand: AA, KK, QQ AK
I choose to discount these, as no aggression from MP3

In totality, there are 19.5 hands MP3 could be holding, and we have to hit our flush or straight to beat him.

So let's see if my turn cap (4BB) was worth it. Let's assume I cap on the turn,
and the river was checked down to simplify things.

EV = (7.5/19.5) * (0.217) * (14.50BB) + (7.5/19.5) * (1-0.217) * (-4BB) + (12/19.5)*(0.348)*(14.5BB) + (12/19.5)*(1-0.348)*(-4BB)
= 1.50BB

Is my reasoning rite? I could have gotten my card ranges wrong, but how about my calculation method? I tried to reference the way Mr Wookie worked to evaluate a Clarkmeister web page . But I think things are a bit different as I am still drawing and there is the river to go.

I believe a lot of my workings are erroroneous, but I'm willing to take all of you as my teachers... I want to IMPROVE!!!

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I love these ambitious posts. Unfortunately you have made a misstake. To decide whether capping is better it is not enough to see that you have +EV on the entire hand. You obviously have that since the pot is so large.

You either have to compare the cap line to the call line, or (which is simpler) calculate ur EV on just that last bet:

EV = (7.5/19.5) * (0.217) * (1BB) + (7.5/19.5) * (1-0.217) * (-1BB) + (12/19.5)*(0.348)*(1BB) + (12/19.5)*(1-0.348)*(-1BB)= -xxx

(don't have a calculator)

So Ur EV on the cap is negative!

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
(don't have a calculator)

[/ QUOTE ]

That thing in front of your face isn't just for Internets anymore. Hint: check under "Accessories".

[Point Blank]

also mav - rick ...

don't just simply calculate your odds by total hands of each type ... you have to give weight to the type of hand and this guy's betting pattern (of course this makes calculations much harder) ...

like - AJ ... you have a number of combos of this hand - but really, the likelihood of this being AJ is not accurately describe by hand combos (of course "likelihoods" could change depending on previous actions and showdowns)

but thinking this is AJ 12 times vs a set 9 times ... is creating maths that support your decision

you also forgot to include two pair

IMO this is a set 70% of the time, vs two pair 20%, vs AJ 10% ... or other such random stats [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[maverickai]

So Pointblank and Sushi, I would like to verify that my formula set up is correct? But only the assigning of hand range is not as accurate? I'll refine the range of hands when I have the time later.

Thanks for the advice guys.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
So Pointblank and Sushi, I would like to verify that my formula set up is correct? But only the assigning of hand range is not as accurate? I'll refine the range of hands when I have the time later.

Thanks for the advice guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't look over the 'maths' ... just the assigning of hand values (just don't think about combos, think likeihood and give weight ... at that point calculations become a nit fest)

good work though ...

whether someone aggrees with your range or not, it makes you think about more than just your hand (and that can never be bad)

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[maverickai]

<font color="purple"> WARNING: SUPER LONG POST AND LOTS OF MATH </font>

A) MP3's hand: Set
we would win when we hit our flush or straight:

7 flush cards. However this has to be discounted as cards such as 9 and 3 hearts would give MP3 a fullhouse.

Thus discounted to 7 flush cards

3 Ts to form a straight (T of spades is included in the flush outs)

Therefore, Total 10 outs (21.7% to hit outers on river)

So villian's chances of holding a set:
Villians pocket pair could be
1) 99 - 3 ways to form 99
2) 33 - 3 ways to form 33
3) JJ - 3 ways to form JJ -&gt; I discount to 1.5, given he didn't raise pre-flop
Total: 3+3+1.5 = 7.5 ways

B) MP3's hand: AJ

With our overs, we can add
3 outs for K
3 outs for Q

1) AJ - 12 ways to form AJ (less J spades). I would discount to only 3 ways.
Total: 3 ways

MP3's hand: AA, KK, QQ, AK
I choose to exclude these, as no aggression from MP3

C) MP3's hand: 9J

With MP3’s 2 pairs,
we would win when we hit our flush or straight, so 8+3 = 11 outs.
Instead of 9 flush outs, I only use 8, cos 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would have given him a full house.

1) 9J – 9 ways
Total: discount to 2 ways

In totality, there are (2+3+7.5) = 12.5 hands MP3 could be holding, and we have to hit our flush or straight or overs to beat him.

So let's see if my turn cap (1BB), as sushi has corrected me, was worth it. Let's assume I cap on the turn, and the river was checked down to simplify things.

He holds set -&gt; (7.5/12.5) * (0.217) * (1BB) + (7.5/12.5) * (1-0.217) * (-1BB)
He holds AJ -&gt; (3/12.5) * (0.348) * (1BB) + (3/12.5) * (1-0.348) * (-1BB)
He holds J9 -&gt; (2/12.5) * (0.239) * (1BB) + (2/12.5) * (1-0.239) * (-1BB)
Total EV = -0.497BB
So yah, it’s a bad cap.

But I’m curious to know the comparison of aggregate EVs between if I had just called his bet on the turn, and if I had capped the turn, and what would be the implied pot at the river.

<u>Calculations if I had just called his turn bet</u>
A) MP3's hand: Set
Assume it’s a capped river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 4 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
EV = (7.5/12.5) * (0.217) * (5.5+1+4BB) + (7.5/12.5) * (1-0.217) * (-2BB)
= 0.43

B) MP3's hand: AJ
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
EV = (3/12.5) * (0.348) * (5.5+1+1BB) + (3/12.5) * (1-0.348) * (-2BB)
= 0.31

C) MP3's hand: 9J
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
EV = (2/12.5) * (0.239) * (5.5+1+1BB) + (2/12.5) * (1-0.239) * (-2BB)
= 0.04

Total EV= 0.43 + 0.31 + 0.04 =<font color="blue"> 0.78BB </font>

<u>Calculations if I had capped the turn</u>
A) MP3's hand: Set
Assume it’s a capped river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 4 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
(7.5/12.5) * (0.217) * (5.5+4+4BB) + (7.5/12.5) * (1-0.217) * (-5BB)
= -0.59

B) MP3's hand: AJ
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.

(3/12.5) * (0.348) * (5.5+4+1BB) + (3/12.5) * (1-0.348) * (-5BB)
= 0.09

C) MP3's hand: 9J
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.

(2/12.5) * (0.239) * (5.5+4+1BB) + (2/12.5) * (1-0.239) * (-5BB)
= -0.21

Total EV= -0.59 + 0.09 - 0.21 = <font color="blue"> -0.70BB </font>

Hmm… so indeed a very bad choice to cap the turn.

Thanks for those who read thru this... it must be very painful and longwinded. But I have learnt something from this, I hope you have too!

[Point Blank]

good work --&gt; comments

your possible actions should be:
you hit K or Q ... you are calling (your hand is not strong enough to raise)
you hit flush ... raise ... if flush and pairs board and dude still leads out (I might be concern and raise/fold ... but I might need a better read to do that)
you hit straight ... you raise
UI ... you fold

[ QUOTE ]
A) MP3's hand: Set
Assume it’s a capped river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 4 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss

[/ QUOTE ]
**don't assue the river is capped when you opponent is passive; assume you get 1.5-2.5 big bets on the end.
any card that has him beat will look bad so it's very likely he'll check and call (that's what they do)
**never make a 'crying call' ... you have nothing dude, WTF!