200PS: When one hand beats you

[iggymcfly]

Well, first off, he's never playing 22 unless he misclicked preflop or has something really specific to go with it like maybe JJ. And he's straightforward/solid enough that he's never checking behind with J8, 88, or 33 on the flop. (Not that those were likely anyway, but the probability of those hands went from ~5% to whatever Ribs' misclick frequency is.) Also, a naked flush draw is very much in the range that Ribs checks behind on the flop as he tends to play passively with weak draws. Finally, if he did somehow end up with 22 on the turn, he's good enough to fold to the 3-bet when Timber makes it obvious that he has a better set that missed a C/R. The only hand left is a flush draw that picked up a wrap on the turn.

[thisnamedoesntfi]

So a flush draw with the upper wrap is more aggressive on the flop here always?

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that I think the wrap is much more likely than the lower set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take it one step further: if villain is a reasonablly competent player, he can never have a set here after calling the turn raise.

Mathematically, he can't have JJ obv., he would have bet 88 on the flop when it was checked to him last to act, and he can't call a pot-sized 3-bet on the turn with 22 or 33.