Stars 1k spot, board goes to hell

[PhatPots]

I think I bet the turn for like 1/2 pot. You have the Q of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that A is probably a scare card for him as well. He probably won't raise with an Ace, or a J so you can see another card cheaply. You are way ahead of a smaller pair which will fold and you won't have to face any scary bets on the river. Then I go into C/f mode

[AcTiOnJaCsOn]

tough hand, fold i guess, i dont think the villian can put us on a preflop range raising from utg that didnt hit a board like this. its hard to put him on a hand though, you figure any jack or flush bets the turn, an ace probably checks the turn but theres not many that he cold calls an utg raise with. My best guess is something liek 10 9 suited, youd think that most of his range for calling an utg raise is pairs that hed fold on the flop.

[Todd Terry]

I promise this is my last post in this thread. We have to be good > 27.8% of the time here to be +cEV. Using Gobbo's range and all flush, straight and J hands that make any sense, I got 30%. Adding in underpairs and 87s (the possibility of which have to be heavily discounted), over 50%. Whatever, it's a marginal call, I'd make it. I think being absolutely certain that QQ is not good here is a bigger error than thinking we're good enough of the time to call here getting almost 3:1.



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50 games 0.005 secs 10,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Jh 8h Ah 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 35 0.00 { TT-77, AJs, KhQh, KJs, KhTh, QJs, QhTh, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 7h6h, 6h5h, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 15 0.00 { QcQh }


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---
82 games 0.005 secs 16,400 games/sec

Board: Jd Jh 8h Ah 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.683% 42.68% 00.00% 35 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KhQh, KJs, KhTh, QJs, QhTh, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 7h6h, 6h5h, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 1: 57.317% 57.32% 00.00% 47 0.00 { QcQh }


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[FGators]

I think this is good, actually. I think its a slowplayed Jack a lot of the time here moreso than a flush which I expect to fire on the turn like always. You are right, Bond, you really don't beat much at all, regardless of whether you tried to induce or not.

[mwalsh2020]

crai?

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
crai?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely, that's what I was thinking.

I think this is a fold. With respect to Villain's bluff range, you need to at least think about Villain's propensity to bluff on this board knowing that there are a fair # of hands Bond may check/call with. Once you factor that in, it becomes an easier fold.

Barry

[Ansky]

Pokerstove is useless in this spot.

sorry for no explanation, im 9 tabling and will post later

[EC10]

ansky sure pwned this thread