$10 turbo - overpair with JJ and 2 all-ins

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
/Sigh/

Seriously folks, this isn't that difficult of a problem. It isn't about "I think this is a close fold; I think this is a call."

The correct play is obvious and it is determined by MATH. Here is some math:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.690% 44.01% 00.68% 3284695448 50859508.17 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 36.895% 36.18% 00.71% 2700474303 53241227.67 { 66+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 18.415% 18.11% 00.31% 1351332184 23152859.17 { TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o }


I threw most (but certainly not all) of the possible flush draw hands in. I also put a bunch of the Tx hands in for player two. I think we have a very very very clear call. I could have also included underpairs like 88 and 99 for player 2, but w/e. Please call and please do math.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

What did you wanted to prove with this? It looks like you did not take the board into account, didn´t you?

Board: Tc 4c Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.467% 16.41% 00.06% 393184 1318.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 10.519% 10.41% 00.10% 249492 2509.50 { 66+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 73.014% 72.96% 00.05% 1747964 1191.50 { TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o }

With this figures it looks like a clear fold ... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

By the way - is anybody (besides me) concernd of the min-raise pf from UTG? My first intuitive reaction is AA/KK - however I already saw pf-minraises from ep with K8s ... What are you guys thinking?

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
/Sigh/

Seriously folks, this isn't that difficult of a problem. It isn't about "I think this is a close fold; I think this is a call."

The correct play is obvious and it is determined by MATH. Here is some math:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.690% 44.01% 00.68% 3284695448 50859508.17 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 36.895% 36.18% 00.71% 2700474303 53241227.67 { 66+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 18.415% 18.11% 00.31% 1351332184 23152859.17 { TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o }


I threw most (but certainly not all) of the possible flush draw hands in. I also put a bunch of the Tx hands in for player two. I think we have a very very very clear call. I could have also included underpairs like 88 and 99 for player 2, but w/e. Please call and please do math.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

What did you wanted to prove with this? It looks like you did not take the board into account, didn´t you?

Board: Tc 4c Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.467% 16.41% 00.06% 393184 1318.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 10.519% 10.41% 00.10% 249492 2509.50 { 66+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 73.014% 72.96% 00.05% 1747964 1191.50 { TT, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o }

With this figures it looks like a clear fold ... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

By the way - is anybody (besides me) concernd of the min-raise pf from UTG? My first intuitive reaction is AA/KK - however I already saw pf-minraises from ep with K8s ... What are you guys thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

OOPS! Thanks Tackleberry. I thought those numbers looked ridiculous when I first did it...heh. Thanks.

<------quite embarrassed. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Sherman]

Anyhow, here is the range I think we are up against this time including the board. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Remember, we only need 20% equity to call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.605% 35.24% 00.36% 590996 6046.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 24.255% 23.83% 00.43% 399574 7147.50 { 66+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 40.141% 40.07% 00.07% 672006 1101.50 { TT-88, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, ATs, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, T8s+ }

[BlueEcho]

You guys need to listen to Sherman on this one, it's a math problem plain and simple that makes this a call.

[21times20]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ is one the top starting hands, but you did not hit the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

what? there are no aces, kings, or queens; that is pretty much the definition of hitting the flop with JJ

[ QUOTE ]
No need to risk it all here. Save your money for a more favorable push.

[/ QUOTE ]

this advice is pretty much terrible for a turbo tournament in just about every single way, you simply have to get your money in in spots like this, waiting until you have 800 chips and the blinds are 75/150 and you have to go all in from middle position with A5 offsuit isn't anywhere close to being a more favorable push than this

it really seems like you are advocating playing JJ for set value only, in a turbo that is borderline retarded

[sapsuckah]

Sherman,

I'm a big fan of your posts and I love your approach to the game (probably because we had the same teacher). But I have to disagree with you here that this is entirely a math problem. In this case, the action in front of you should speak as loudly as the math -- or at least make you rethink ranges.

Sure, I can create scenarios where the flop push and call come from draws or other hands we're beating, but the action (and the speed of the call) force me to skew my range much more to hands that are crushing me now.

That said, I'd probably still call here since I'm conditioned to never lay down overpairs in spots like this against the levels I play. But I'd know that I was beat here.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Sherman,

I'm a big fan of your posts and I love your approach to the game (probably because we had the same teacher). But I have to disagree with you here that this is entirely a math problem. In this case, the action in front of you should speak as loudly as the math -- or at least make you rethink ranges.

Sure, I can create scenarios where the flop push and call come from draws or other hands we're beating, but the action (and the speed of the call) force me to skew my range much more to hands that are crushing me now.

That said, I'd probably still call here since I'm conditioned to never lay down overpairs in spots like this against the levels I play. But I'd know that I was beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sap,

You can absolutely adjust the ranges as you feel are correct. I wasn't at the table and don't have any feel for the players at all, so I created a range that I think is reasonable given the action. I am always more inclined to believe that the person who was at the table has a better read that I do, but Black hasn't given us a range for these players yet.

My point is this. This is a math problem and can be solved by math. We can debate all day long about the ranges, but once a range is chosen, the answer to the problem is right in front of us.

BTW, even with my last range notice we still only have 36% equity. That means we expect to lose a majority of the time. However, we are compensated by great pot odds. Even if we only win 1 out of 5 times we still break even by calling here.

Sherman

[nath]

call, you have the ultra deluxe bacon lettuce and tomato nizzles