Turn semi-bluff against a TAGish character

[Heisenb3rg]

srry danza you are wrong...
A freeshowdown raise needs to have multiple properties satisfied in order to be classified as a "freeshowdown raise". It doesnt them ALL to be satisfied.
One of the properties is the ability to fold out hands with adequate outs to call your raise, or fold out a better hand.

Its not necessary, but is an element to consider.

You can bluff raise with a hand that has showdown value and still fold out better hands.

EG

QJx board

You get c/r by someone who tells you they have any draw or any pair.

turn is a blank.
You have A4.

If you raise the turn and can fold out pairs < J.. The hands that call the turn raise are now stronger pairs + draws.

youve both bluffed the turn AND took a freeshodown raise with a hand that has showdown value.

Im pretty sure a raise on this turn does not fall under the category of either free showdown raise or semi-bluff.

[danzasmack]

meh I think it encompasses both here with the fact that there are a lot more worse hands he calls with here.

IMO if a guy's range on a QJx flop c/r is wide enough that a FSR with a hand as bad as A4 is what i consider the +EV move...i can't fold to a 3-bet. So i wouldn't do it.

[Heisenb3rg]

Im not using that example as the correct move against a realistic player profile...

Just using it as an example to explain that fold equity is an important component of the freeshowdown raise.

The reason there is confusion is because against certain hands within their range it falls under a different category.

EG with the A4 hand.
Against 77, its a bluff.
Against T8 it's a raise for value and a hope they make a huge mistake by folding.

Especially if the turn is a J because now you have 7 outs against lower pairs, they are more likely to have a draw, as well and you will unlikely get 3-bet without drawing dead.

The key as to why I think a raise is profitable in OPs hand is the value gained on the RIVER, not the turn.

[danzasmack]

Just think of it as the fold equity is making up part of your equity when raising the turn, right? Our total equity.

Well our hand is much stronger on this board. So the total rquity is close to the same, no?

I mean, as I said, a call is mathematically fine by all means but I like a raise in this spot. I'm not saying i pop any overs + spades always here but when OP asks I'm gonna say it's fine and is going to always be fine as long as you don't do it always.

Then i'm gonna stop posting in this thread before i basically explain everything about how i play poker haha. also i'm on hardcore worktilt. They should make a book called "what other people consider interesting" and everybody should be FORCED to read it before entering the workforce.
/rant

[Heisenb3rg]

Oops I just realized I was really ambiguous with this sentence "Im pretty sure a raise on this turn does not fall under the category of either free showdown raise or semi-bluff.
"
I wasnt referring to my A4 example , I was referring to OPs hand.

The A4 is an example of a FSD raise
OPs hand is like a weird value raise to induce river mistakes.

[jstill]

this is fine, dont know y ILP was so dismissive?

I think part of the reason to do it is to expand ur turn raising range but I also think this is maybe a spot to apply a mixed strategy (which u can partly base when to use it on metagame), I think always raising here or always calling is probably not best vs most opponents esp those u play regularly?

also danza we are losing to A5 atm, altho with 14 outs worht of equity

[danzasmack]

"also danza we are losing to A5 atm, altho with 14 outs worht of equity"

did i say A5 somewhere? im confused

[jstill]

ur 2nd post in the thread listing worse hands that will call u did... not a big deal, just bein a nit

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Oops I just realized I was really ambiguous with this sentence "Im pretty sure a raise on this turn does not fall under the category of either free showdown raise or semi-bluff.
"
I wasnt referring to my A4 example , I was referring to OPs hand.

The A4 is an example of a FSD raise
OPs hand is like a weird value raise to induce river mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think his range is heavily weighted towards semi-bluffs in this spot. He's not going to fold them on the turn and may not 3-barrel here (I would probably give up in his spot if you called the turn.) Even if he has a better hand like 1 pair, you have a lot of outs and he's probably going to make the call on the river when you bet. We should do the math on this one.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
You wanna free SD raise when

a) you can fold a better hand

b) you can fold to a 3-bet

c) Villain wont fire his worse hands again on the river.


I doubt any of these conditions are fulfilled in this spot so I like calling better than raising.

That said. Raising cant be a huge mistake as hero has so many outs and I doubt it matters much what you do here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again I dont have to post anything meaningful becuz Oink explains it perfectly why this turn raise cannot be better than calling down in a vacuum. The only thing I want to add is that Oinks point B) about being able to fold to a 3bet, is not strictly true but is dependent on how much fold equity we have. Obviously the higher our fold equity the more likely it will be worth freeshowdowning the turn even if we have to call a 3bet. However, most of the time Oink's point B will be valid since our FE will generally not be high enough to overcome the dangers of having to call a 3bet.