Advanced Hand Reading Excercise

[ChrisV]

PS why the hell is everyone putting Hero on like an 8, or worse still, a "thin value raise" with T9? wtf? I really don't think you get many calls out of villain unless he has at least an 8, you just aren't bluffing enough to justify it. And (as Villain might possibly be demonstrating this hand) you open yourself up to some serious rebluffing pain if Villain has reason not to put you on a flush, which he does. Value raising with less than KQ here (maybe Q8 also) is really bad poker imo.

[ahnuld]

ill wait until im in class and have a lot of free time to comment

[good2cu]

Since I posted this a while ago I’ll go ahead and post my thoughts:

In hand #1 I feel both players have significantly wider preflop ranges then most people are giving them. I feel that both players can have a wide range of pocket pairs and suited connectors at least some % of the time.

Flop: Neither player (epically the Hero) has too high of equity in the pot. The Villain could be getting tricky with KQ, a big flush draw or an overpair some % of the time. I also feel that the Hero must have some showdown value in order to check the flop.

Turn: not much has changed. KK/AA are now much less likly holdings for villian.

River: Villain is almost certainly value betting here on his first bet. Rarely has a total bluff.

Hero almost always has an eight after the minraise (he has to except a call and can pretty much never have KQ or a flush). V

illian either has a flush/higher straight or is making a very ballsy bluff. In hero’s spot I’d fold my eight unless I had a lot of knowledge about the villain.

Hand #2

Flop: Hero most likely has an overpair/air. He can also have some type of draw here but I think this is pretty rare.
Villain: After the call villain probably doesn’t have a strong draw as he would 3 bet it. I’d put him on a medium/strong to made hand or a float

Turn: Once hero leads I’d figure his range is something like a strong overpair, or something like 67, 75% of the time and a bluff 25% of the time.

When the Villian shoves I’d put him on trips or better 50% of the time, a medium pair of some type 35% of the time and a bluff 15% of the time.

As the hero I would call with any pair at this point.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
River: Villain is almost certainly value betting here on his first bet. Rarely has a total bluff.

Hero almost always has an eight after the minraise (he has to except a call and can pretty much never have KQ or a flush).

Villain either has a flush/higher straight or is making a very ballsy bluff. In hero’s spot I’d fold my eight unless I had a lot of knowledge about the villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't compute. If Villain is almost certainly value betting, then what's he supposed to put Hero on after the minraise? Hero knows his range is strong, maybe two pair or better, and yet makes a raise begging to be called. The only way we can get value here is if Villain obligingly calls with two pairs, which are at the very bottom of his range. It's bizarre poker to make a raise in a situation where you have a reasonable chance of being behind, a very slim chance of getting called when ahead, and the intention to dump it to a raise which might be a gutsy bluff.

Let's discount the cases where villain also has an 8, since it won't matter what we do. The EV for raising is something like:

EV = (P[twopair] * P[calls with twopair]) - P[beating us] - (P[has air] * P[rebluffs us])

Come up with some numbers to plug into that equation where raising comes out positive for Hero. Hell, I don't even think P[beating us] is less than P[two pair] - what two pair would he have, exactly, given the flop and turn action? Not even T9 looks particularly plausible to me - he bets the flop, yes? 97 is about it.

PS: If you think he value bets less than two pair, include that in the P[twopair] number, but I don't know what else you think is worth value betting on a board like that.

[Redgrape]

Hand 1: There's a lot of complicated logic you can go through that is grossly overthinking the situation. The truth is both hero and opps range is so wide that one would have to grasp the situation much better than it appears to make a successful bluff here, which is why I would think neither is bluffing. Hero likely has an 8, Villain is going to push an 8, flush or KQ. I think Villain at the time the river card comes has a better range than hero, but none is grossly ahead of the other. Unfortunately, when Hero minraises I highly doubt he has a flush or KQ, because I'd expect his raise size to be much bigger expecting villain never to fold an 8. If I'm hero I probably call KQ but may make a huge laydown with an 8, likely cry calling.

Hand 2: Both ranges are ridiculously confusing. If I'm hero I call with a fd and two overs obv, and probably call anything TT or better. I don't think villain prob takes this line with any draw, and also a 3, quads, set etc.

[good2cu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River: Villain is almost certainly value betting here on his first bet. Rarely has a total bluff.

Hero almost always has an eight after the minraise (he has to except a call and can pretty much never have KQ or a flush).

Villain either has a flush/higher straight or is making a very ballsy bluff. In hero’s spot I’d fold my eight unless I had a lot of knowledge about the villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't compute. If Villain is almost certainly value betting, then what's he supposed to put Hero on after the minraise? Hero knows his range is strong, maybe two pair or better, and yet makes a raise begging to be called. The only way we can get value here is if Villain obligingly calls with two pairs, which are at the very bottom of his range. It's bizarre poker to make a raise in a situation where you have a reasonable chance of being behind, a very slim chance of getting called when ahead, and the intention to dump it to a raise which might be a gutsy bluff.

Let's discount the cases where villain also has an 8, since it won't matter what we do. The EV for raising is something like:

EV = (P[twopair] * P[calls with twopair]) - P[beating us] - (P[has air] * P[rebluffs us])

Come up with some numbers to plug into that equation where raising comes out positive for Hero. Hell, I don't even think P[beating us] is less than P[two pair] - what two pair would he have, exactly, given the flop and turn action? Not even T9 looks particularly plausible to me - he bets the flop, yes? 97 is about it.

PS: If you think he value bets less than two pair, include that in the P[twopair] number, but I don't know what else you think is worth value betting on a board like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what any of this means. But I almost 100% certain that Villian can def value bet one pair hands and hero can def call with one pair hands on the river from the million+ hands I've played of NL hold'em

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what any of this means. But I almost 100% certain that Villian can def value bet one pair hands and hero can def call with one pair hands on the river from the million+ hands I've played of NL hold'em

[/ QUOTE ]

My question is, does villain call the minraise with hands worse than an 8 more than he calls/reraises with hands better than an 8?

[ChrisV]

bump

seriously can anyone explain why minraising an 8 is not completely nuts in that spot? i actually want to know if i'm wrong.

[DeucesNeverLoses]

hand 1 if I'm villain I put hero on a hand like 88, if I'm hero I think villain has AKcc, you're toast here.

hand 2, if I'm villain, I put hero on a big hand. The c/r was very standardish looking and I hero has QQ+ w/ club, maybe AKcc. If I'm hero, I put villain on 45ss,67cc at worst. It looks like a combo draw, but pot is so big now, villain can shove w/ 55/66 here and feel good about getting a call. Tough spot for hero on turn, since his bet size looks like monster PP, since board is looming with draws.

[ChrisV]

This thread is tilting me badly.

Number of times Hero probably having an eight has been mentioned: Eight.

Number of times the poster mentioning it has bothered discussing at all what he thinks Hero is hoping to get a call from: Zero.