99 Wierd Spot

[thepizzlefosho]

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we could easily have the J or 9 of d. if he doesn't have it it is pretty reasonable for him to put us on it.

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seriously think about our range when we 3bet pf, bet flop and turn. yes we could have the J/9/8d. does it make up 3/4 of our range?? not even CLOSE. snap call if I'm villain.

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none of this changes why you think c/c is better than b/f (either way it costs 1 bet to see the river).

The only argument I can think of is that you are concerned that we will get bluff raised on the river so you think that b/f could cost us half of the pot. I guess I find it more likely the villain folds a non-diamond chop hand, than villain bluff raises the river. this might be a decent spot for a bluff raise, but even if it is I don't think very many online players recognize that. They tend to try to get to SDs cheap if they have a chance to win, and I wouldn't expect to many of them to be raising non-diamond hands.

[Robin Foolz]

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if the guy puts us on a diamond we fold a hand we would have chopped. If he raises we can fold being pretty sure we were beat since villain will expect a call the vast majority of the time and is pretty unlikely to be bluff raising.

I guess I think we should put in 1 bet on the river, and leading has the greatest number of positive possibilities (he calls we chop, we bluff him off of a chop) and really costs us the same when villain has a diamond. If we check the river he is checking behind every hand that chops, and we get taken to value town with every diamond. I just don't think that c/c is the best option. Maybe villain bluff bets the river enough that we can c/c and chop often enough, but it is really too tough to say.

so its either a c/c or a b/f, and I think we are better off b/f'ing than c/c'ing. But honestly it is super close, and I don't think there is a huge difference in EV either way.

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i like this analysis for b/f. the problem i see with b/f is that we run the risk of getting bluffed out. and depending on villain and the game, this can happen often. i rather sd here for sure and chop then give villain the chance to bluff me out.

[jba]

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we get taken to value town with every diamond

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hahaha, we're going anyways, we might as well drive!!

[Robin Foolz]

imo the fact that mr. 28/17 9 AF after 35 hands, hasn't done anything way out of line yet

sets us up perfectly for him to bluff us here. we think he doesn't get out of line. we bet, he raises. we fold, because we think he doesn't get out of line. if villain is smart and knows this, betting here just sets us up badly for him to rebluff getting good odds. something to think about.

of course i'm assuming villain is and plays smart. who knows.

[thepizzlefosho]

attn jba: I respect your posts, and I keep asking, why do you prefer a c/c to a b/f? Do you think that we are more likely to get bluff raised out of a chop than we are fold out opponents hand when we are chopping? If that is the case then please say so.

I keep asking for this info because I'm actually interested in what you have to say. not because I trying to be a d-bag.

[jba]

sorry I guess I never said, but I'd c/f here. 3.5-1 and it's probably 50/50 we're beat before any action goes in. i think the other choices lose pretty close to a full bet, so do lose more by folding a winner? i dont think so.

[SuperUberBob]

Bet/fold is the right move imo because you might be able to fold some hands that you'd normally chop with. If you're raised, it's an easy fold.