99 against UTG raise $4.40

[Sherman]

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I figure he is raising about 6.6% or 77+,AJs+,AQo+.

He is calling Hero's shove with 3.8% of that, or 58% of his range 99+,AQs+,AKo+.

So we have 42% FE. Multiply that times the size of the pot.

We are 33% against his calling range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.755% 65.62% 01.14% 343809864 5963178.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 33.245% 32.11% 01.14% 168228804 5963178.00 { 99 }

So multiply that times the size of the pot when he calls our shove.

I don't have the pot sizes memorized, but I am pretty sure with this much FE, and this much equity against his calling range, we are +EV on a shove.

Sherman

Edit: To point out that my original raising range is based on his 12% PFR and then accounting for him being UTG, I tightened his range by about 1/2.

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It's +cEV, but I think that Usha wants to know if it's worth it in terms of $EV.

Barry

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Ummm...are we at the FT?

[markbris]

No we are not, final two tables maybe.

[Crash0veride]

Pushing vs. this type of opponent has to be a ++EV play.
He probably opens with most pairs 55+, A9s+,AJo+. You have a ton FE and if he calls most of the time we're not in terrible shape

[stevematador]

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Ummm...are we at the FT?

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Great point, I think the thing we need to consider here is how many players are left and have we already cashed yet etc. If we're in that 10-18 place bubble this is an easy shove, you're already in the money and you give yourself IMHO a +cEV shot at chipping up and contending for the win, which once you've cashed in these you have to be thinking in these terms.

I only fold this at the FT where we are risking +EV by not folding, as folding could allow us to cash up by just watching the few remaining donkeys that may still be left smash each other out as we pick other spots to try and go for the win, while incresing our cash in the meantime.

[nath]

SHIP THE NIZZLES SON