Arr in?

[Hattifnatt]

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I push, if the flop was QJx instead of QJT I woulda folded vs an uknown.

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You would what?


Board: Qh Jh Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.124% 71.73% 04.40% 102255 6267.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.876% 19.48% 04.40% 27771 6267.00 { KK }


Board: Qh Jh 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.282% 50.35% 01.94% 80745 3105.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.718% 45.78% 01.94% 73425 3105.00 { KK }

[/ QUOTE ]
my first instinct was actually insta-fold but changed my mind. not sure but I think folding might be best. if proceeding calling and calling any turn might be the wtg. if pushing is a mistake its not a huge mistake though.

regarding my QJx comment the equity vs this range of course is important, but for it to be 100% relevant the $240 bet should be all-in and he should play all the hands this way. for ex I dont think its that likely he bets close to pot with AK or TT (or something like 99-88 for that matter).

he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.

another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.

if you think I am off here you are very welcome to say that but I hope you come with some eloboratation not just "you are wrong".

[FireStorm]

4 bet preflop.

As played fold.

[Nick Royale]

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regarding my QJx comment the equity vs this range of course is important, but for it to be 100% relevant the $240 bet should be all-in and he should play all the hands this way. for ex I dont think its that likely he bets close to pot with AK or TT (or something like 99-88 for that matter).

[/ QUOTE ]
Fwiw I think the chance of him betting pot with a flopped set goes down on the 2nd less co-ordinated, QJx-board, as well.


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he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.

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Just to state the obvious, this is in favor of felting the QJx-board. The one you're saying you're not felting.


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another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.

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This is just not true. On the QJT-board you're drawing to 3 split outs vs 8 combos of AK (counted 1.5 outs). On the QJx-board you're drawing dead (ie 2 outs + backdoors) vs only 6 combos of QQ/JJ.


While I do agree he's less likely to bet close to pot on QJx with AK/TT, the difference in equity is faaar too big for this to make up for it. Let's for example say we discount all 6 TT-combos:


Board: Jh Qh 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.883% 33.39% 02.49% 41655 3105.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 64.117% 61.63% 02.49% 76875 3105.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


The difference is still huge.

[Hattifnatt]

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he also is much more likely to play like this with AQ on the QJx than on the QJT. if he 3-bet with air he is also more likely to fire the QJx flop.


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Just to state the obvious, this is in favor of felting the QJx-board. The one you're saying you're not felting.


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true, my mistake.

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another, less relevant aspect was that if you push on QJx the risk of drawing dead (or v close to it) is WAY higher than on the QJT.


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This is just not true. On the QJT-board you're drawing to 3 split outs vs 8 combos of AK (counted 1.5 outs). On the QJx-board you're drawing dead (ie 2 outs + backdoors) vs only 6 combos of QQ/JJ.


[/ QUOTE ]
dont forget AA making it 12 combos.

however, I have no problem confessing I was wrong when I was and I was prolly wrong here regarding pushing the QJx makes more sense than QJT.

[Nick Royale]

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dont forget AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're correct.

For your benefit, you'll probably have a slightly higher equity when the money actually goes in on a QJT-board than on a QJx-board. Still not enough I'd say...

[Renton]

oh wow, now this is interesting

I think just looking at this hand for 5 seconds i just see "omg 10 outs all in", but its pretty profound how awful our equity is.

[freeucm]

pits

[freeucm]

Profoundly if you shove he will put you on AK

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

I have no problem with calling preflop. However, you gotta toss it now.

[Zaid_Ahmed]

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Is he really leading out with a near pot bet with a set here though ?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes