Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question

[yellowjack]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, i thought that math was actually harder.

So for and 8 person headsup tournament you have to win 3 matches. If you win on match 1 in 5 times that means
5 x 5 x 5 = 125
So you will win 1 time in 125 or .008% of the time.
And for a 16 person
5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625
So thats 1 time in 625 tries or .00016% of the time.

Now this numbers do seem a little to slim to me. Could someone explain why my very simple math is wrong, or prove why i am correct.
And could some pokerstove the handranges that i put in against and completely random hand. I'd like to see the exact odds of winning, by pushing ever hand, obviously this doesn't take into account the amount of chips won by the folding of the 'pro' player and how this may increase the odds slightly for the donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

1/125 != 0.008%.
1/125 = 0.008 = 0.8%

That said, the chances of winning a HU match by pushing AI PF every hand is actually much closer to 1/3. You can work out the rest.

[warrantofice]

Just to make this a little more crazy.

You get dealt AA-1010 approx. 1 in 45 times, so if you start off with 200bb than you would expect to loose 45bb on average before you can call an all-in. I'm am not nearly smart enough to figure out the donks chances of beating the pro after the all-in, assuming the pro wins and the donk has 45bb left, i think obv. the pro might open up his calling range again, which again would increase the donks chances of doubling up.
Another thing to consider would be, what if the poor player, were to nearly time out every time before he pushed all-in, with the occasional request time (i'm not sure of the request time procedure for Stars and how many times you can use it.) Would the donk be able to get to the next blind increase before the end of 45 hands? Then this would give the donkey and increased edge at the higher levels.

[WutRUTryin2Hit]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming amateur moves in with any two cards and "pro" knows this, then..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.001% 79.70% 00.30% 50152262004 190206810.00 { TT+ }
Hand 1: 19.999% 19.70% 00.30% 12394496376 190206810.00 { random }

Yes, I know most likely the amateur will take some chips off the pro before he gets one of these 5 hands, still..

20% to win pushing ATC!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, just do the pokerstove calculation now on how to get dealt TT+ right away, and you have this solved.

[Enervate]

[ QUOTE ]
wow i'm awesome

[/ QUOTE ]

I was impressed.

[HERE_2_gamble_]

lol, the average player is gonna try and play his best poker game, so wtf would he be pushing every hand?

He will deff cash in this a couple of times if he plays it 26 times and over this short sample could deff show some profit, but in the long run, he is obviously a loser in the game.

[NU Star]

If Lil Holdem plays it 26 times how bad are those [censored] arab crooks going to screw him?

[daryn]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, the average player is gonna try and play his best poker game, so wtf would he be pushing every hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

right, the point is EVEN IF YOU PUSH EVERY HAND you probably win one out of 3. so if an average player plays his regular game, he probably wins 40+% of the time easy.

[HERE_2_gamble_]

i get your point sorta, but i dont think it has much relevance.

And a 100 nl player just doesnt win the first round 40%+, if its a strong field it might actually be better pushing everyhand.

[SSES]

he definitely has a >50% chance of taking one down

[MicroBob]

Not that they use the best of structures there...but didn't Shannon Elizabeth make it to the semi-finals of the Heads-Up Challenge on NBC? That kind of tells you something about heads-up play right there.

I thought Sklansky had some sort of write-up of the chances of a novice winning a heads-up match by just pushing every hand. Don't remember where I saw it though. It might have had to do with some sort of prop-bet or something.


In other news, I think some really bad players might actually have a BETTER chance by pushing every hand. Being too passive in heads-up is virtual suicide.