Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?

[SNOWBALL]

FNORD,

The pot isn't big enough for the 3 event parlay that you want to see happen. SOMEONE definitely has something here, and it's often an 8. We simply will not win UI or take down the pot often enough to justify this.
It's a very different situation if the pot is like 4bb larger or the board isn't paired. Then it's easier to put all of them on overcards/gutshots etc., and justify a bet.

In general, I think 2p2ers fail to make distinctions between large pots and monster pots. This is the former, and you're advocating play for the latter.

[Fnord]

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the games may be good, but they arent THAT good.

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They are in California!

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wtf are they calling with?

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Any 2 cards Ten or higher, worse flush draws and god-knows-what-else. Reads say these guys suck and terrible players aren't folding much on a blank flop for a small bet. I'll conceade that if our opponents were tighter or capable of c/ring a wide range on the turn, the turn is a check.

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It's a very different situation if the pot is like 4bb larger or the board isn't paired. Then it's easier to put all of them on overcards/gutshots etc., and justify a bet.

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It's easier to put them on a piece of the board if it wasn't paired! There are eight bets in the pot, plenty big enough to run with flush outs.

Screw me, I'm just some donk on a message board who misreads action. Do you disagree with the example in SSHE? How is this hand different?

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I probably bet simply because no one else has shown strength.

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the flop is freakin 883.

3 people called.

wtf are they calling with?

even the dumbest 10/20 players in my game arent calling this flop with 2 random cards. the games may be good, but they arent THAT good.

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Chances are greater they're calling flop with junk when you're last to act. That's why you bet here. If you were first to act, it's an easy check...

[leo doc]

You are correct that the hand is similar to that in SSHE. There are three differences, however, that bear some consideration.

1) There are three callers here and only two in SSHE.

2) The SSHE hand has a J33 board, i.e., an overcard to the pair. It's much easier to fold loose players that'll peel the flop with ATC after your PFR with the overcard.

3) The other difference- and I think this is more germane- is that the SSHE board pair is 33, not 88. I think it is much more likely that a caller would have an 8 in his hand than a 3, although neither should be discounted, of course.

I think it is highly unlikely that none of three flop callers didn't catch at least something they felt like they could call your bet with.

I'm taking the freebie here.

[James.]

i would check.

[youlosepork]

im not sure about the pf raise here

[gobbledygeek]

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Checked to me and I bet for value.

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This implies you should c-bet the turn for value, right?


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On the flop we have about a 1/3 chance of making our nut flush by the river; one of the reasons we bet is if we get 3 callers we've just made money (i.e. we're putting 1/4 of the money into a pot we're going to win 1/3 of the time). On the turn things change drastically as now we're only going to make the nut flush 1/5 of the time; we no longer have an equity advantage so we can't bet for that reason (although there may be other reasons to bet).

[Man of Means]

pf raise is fairly standard in loose games. You'd pretty much instaraise ATs from early position, so raising the likes of A9s, QTs, even 98s are fine from cutoff or button....moreso from CO because you can "buy the button."

Sometimes I bet the turn vs players who peel flop light, yes even 3 of them. Any tricky sandbaggers (who'd c/r with an 8 or 22!) and rocks who call down with 44, well then I check.

[PorkchopDJG]

Check on turn and take the free card.
You are almost surely beat as of the turn.

[jesse8888]

Hey, good for me. 400 posts in, one of my hands finally generated some serious and interesting discussion. I'll try to summarize so far. I'll likely fail:

1. Holy crap, this hand is all but identical to the one on page 174 of SSHE.

2. Lots of people think I should take the free card, given that at present I have no hand. One has said:

the flop is freakin 883.
3 people called.
wtf are they calling with?

With this statement I basically concur. Again, I submit that everyone is retarded, but seriously, what on earth could they have? They are at least functionally retarded, as they have navigated themselves to the casino and purchased chips.

3. Some people think not betting would be sinful. One has said:

"Checked to me and I bet for value"
This implies you should c-bet the turn for value,right?

Which to say the least hurts my head (of course, its 3am as I write this, so what to I know at this point). Why does betting a nut flush draw on the flop for value against the whole world, when I'm only 2:1 against to bring it in, imply I should c-bet the turn when I'm 4:1 to bring it in against half the world?

I'm not really sure what to think. At the time of posting, I was quite sure everyone could concur that I needed to take the free card. However, the example from SSHE, and some talented player(s), seem to disagree.

At the risk of killing the discussion, I'm going to post the results now, then go to sleep (Edit: It didn't post last night for some reason, reposting now)

Hero bets.

Player A (the one with ATC) folds. Player B (the one who just sat down), also folds. Player C, the one who is semi-rational, raises.

Hero calls.

River = brick

Villain bets, hero mucks, villain shows the 7c and acts like he bluffed me out. Hero would lay 50:1 he had an 8.