QQ in le reraised pot, monotone, etc

[Bakes]

Thanks for the math stumpy. Regarding his range, I think 55-77, and AJ are probably folding preflop. Anyone else agree?

[EC10]

bakes i would like this calldown more in a cash game than i would a tournament. DUCY?

i still like the calldown tho

[Stumpy]

Yeah, I can believe that Bakes.

That leaves 45 hands.
I've done this slightly better this time, I think.
Just offhand, you removed more bluffing hands than good hands, so he should have to bluff more now.


Shoving Turn
24 Call Turn, 21 Fold.
I stoved your hand against the 24 that call the turn and got 34.8% equity.
[21*(+2k) + 24*(0.348*(+4k) + 0.652*(-2.8k))]/45 = +702


Calling River
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Rivers (20% of the time.)
30 are ahead, 15 Bluff

Blank Rivers. (80% of the time)
13 were ahead, 1 chop, the remaining 31 are 15.4% to catch up on river.
You're 4.5% to hit a Q. You win 4k, lose 2.8k, so I'm going to use:
CU = 15.4% - (4/2.8)*4.5 = 9% for how often he catches up.

(0.2*[15*(1-B)*(+2k) + (45-15*B)*(-0.8k)] + 0.8*[13*(-2.8k) + 1k + 31*CU*(-2.8k) + 31*(1-CU)*(B*(4k) + (1-B)*(2k))])/45

Calling River:
0%: +208
25%: +439
50%: +670
75%: +900
100%: +1,131

Shoving Turn = +702

And 54% bluffing is break-even.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I did some math, and if my preflop range isn't too far off, then this is pretty close.

Can someone who actually plays these stakes give a better Pre-Flop Range?
I used: AJs+,AQo+,55-QQ. 61 total hands.


Pushing Turn
On the turn, 17 hands are ahead, 15 have a good enough draw to call, and 29 would fold.
Ahead: (2NF, 3Set, 3 TP+FD, 9 TPTK)
Drawing: (6 OESD, 2NFD, 7 J+FDs)

The hands that call are about 25% to win on average.
[17*(-2.8k) + 29*(+2k) + 15*( 0.75*(+4k) - 0.25*(-2.8k)]/61 = 740

Pushing Turn = +740 Average


Calling Turn
He Bluffs B% of the time.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Rivers. (20% of the time)
23 hands are behind.
He'll check (1-B)*23 of those and you'll win the 2k Turn pot.
You'll fold to a bet the rest of the time and lose 800 Turn call.

Blank Rivers. (80% of the time)
20 Hands are ahead on average. You'll call and lose 800 Turn + 2k River call.
He'll bluff the remaining 41 hands B% of the time. You'll call and win 4k
The rest of the time he check/folds and you win 2k.
(Since we're comparing this to shoving the turn, your turn call is not dead money)

(0.2*[23*(1-B)*(+2k) + <font color="blue">(61-23*B)</font>*(-0.8k)] + 0.8*[20*(-2.8k) + 41*B*(4k) + 41*(1-B)*(2k)])/61

Average for different Bluff Percentages:
100%: +1,317
75%: +1,071
50%: +824
25%: +578
0%: +332

42% Bluff rate is break-even for this range, versus shoving the turn.

If you have no idea how much he bluffs, shoving the turn is nice because the return is good, and doesn't vary.

-Stumpy

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked through. I believe you assumed that villain is betting his entire preflop range on the turn. So the +740 you calculated for pushing turn should be incorrect, as that's not a good assumption. I believe that a lot of the hands we're beating are going to check the turn. Pocket pairs, that didn't hit a set, for example. Yea, sure they might bet a TT type hand, but assuming that they always bet the turn is incorrect.

The part that I put in <font color="blue">blue</font> should be (61-23*(1-B)), not (61-23*B). Also, you assumed that B for diamond rivers and blank rivers is the same, which is, most likely, not true.

[bigballz]

hmm ur prob good enough here to call. interesting spo i think this is one of those where ppl are faced with it everyday but just make a decision and dont think about posting it. I know if im villian my hand is a bluff a lot so that makes me wanna call

[Stumpy]

(0.2*[23*(1-B)*(+2k) + <font color="blue">(61-23*B)</font>*(-0.8k)] + 0.8*[20*(-2.8k) + 41*B*(4k) + 41*(1-B)*(2k)])/61

Mike,

Thanks, you're right.
I'm kind of surprised, but it had very little effect on the final numbers.
0%: 392
25%: 608
50%: 824
75%: 1,040
100%: 1,256


I seem to have an error in my other equation as well, or at least wrote the wrong result down:
[17*(-2.8) + 29*(+2) + 15*( 0.75*(+4) - 0.25*(-2.8))]/61 = +1,080, not +740.

I appreciate your other comments, but you've really offered no suggestions on how to improve things.

My feeling would be he is bluffing more on the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] rivers, because that's basically what he's trying to represent. However, since those are only 20% of the time, things have to change significantly before the average numbers change much. For example, if I change his [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] bluff rate from 50% to 75% or 25%, it moves the final averages up or down by 50 chips.

The trend in this thread seemed to be that calling down was better because unknowns would be bluffing a lot. I'm trying to look at how much he'd have to bluff for this to be true. Once you have a rough number, you can then decide if you believe that. A good player can say "calling down is good." Ideally, then I can get him to give me a hand range and a bluff %age they think is about right. Then see if the two opinions match. Assuming my numbers are correct, clearly you could shove or call down here and make a profit in both cases. It's difficult to realize you're not making the best play, because it's not like noticing a big red number next to raised 55 UTG.

I don't think it's logical to have an opponent who almost exclusively bets the turn with hands that beat us then turn around and bluff the river 50% of the time. Why would he never bluff the turn but often bluff the river? If you think that's the average opponent, then folding the turn or river is obviously the right play.

I think it's a little silly to claim TT is not a good bluffing hand but something else is. If the hand matters, then we're not talking about bluffing. Bluffs don't have to be single street events either. If he's bluffing the river 50% of the time, then he's bluffing the turn as well. Maybe the model should be he bluffs the turn A%, and the river A*B%, and gives up A*(1-B)% with those hands that made it to the river. Then his range on the turn would be the hands that are ahead, plus the good drawing hands, plus A% of the junk hands.

This would certainly change things, and make the shoving turn numbers more dependant on his bluffing percentage.

The shove turn equation would become this:
[17*(-2.8) + 29*A*(+2) + 15*( 0.75*(+4) - 0.25*(-2.8)]/(32+29*A)
A = 25%: +571
A = 50%: +794

The river equation will take a little more work, and I'm too tired right now. More tomorrow.

-Stumpy

[Stumpy]

Balls,
What do you think a lot is?

I'm trying to show it has to be really high to make calling down the best play.
Calling down is still +chips, but I think shoving the turn is better.

Partly because there are a lot of draws that you can price in, partly because there are some bluffing hands that will accidentally get there, and some others that will bluff a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river, and you really can't call there because you're beating just about nothing in his range.