#21
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Re: (razz) Typical hand from bring-in?
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Interesting. I agree with above that 5th could be a raise, and definitely that the river bet was wrong, a check-call would probably work well. On 6th, I personally was thinking the hands were more like this: http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5= Something along the lines of giving Seat 1 a definite high card, and Seat 4 any draw to better than the 9 high Seat 1 and I appear to be have. Even with these favorable assumptions, bit under 20%. I have to call 6th, and would also have to call on 7th (changing to check-call, they're almost certain to bet). 2BB to 8.8BB pot, so I think 6th is a fold with about any range we give them. [/ QUOTE ] Nice sim Agg. I think this is pretty close to the correct way to model the ranges. Also notice that it doesn't matter if you assume a Q-9 in the hole for seat 1 since a 9 pairs him and any rough T or worse made hand loses to seat 4's probable made smooth T. There is a slight chance he paired the 4 on 6th st since he is yet to act when the hero is on the clock so that is a small factor too. I get hero for 21% equity. Not a favorite, not great, but good enough to call? |
#22
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Re: (razz) Typical hand from bring-in?
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I experimented with other ranges not including the case A and as you can see from the other sims posted after mine that the range doesn't change to greatly, hero is still a dog. Simulation isn't a precise science, I can live with a 7% margin of error in this situation; there are bigger fish to fry IMHO but I wouldn't blame you if you disagreed. [/ QUOTE ] The case A in seat 4's hand seems to knock about 3% off of hero's equity since it is much less likely that seat 4 paired his 4 that way. Assuming a more realistinc range for seat 1 has an even bigger effect. If you're claiming that a dog is a dog and the difference between 12% equity and 19% or 20% is trivial, let me put it in more 2p2 friendly terms: 12% Eq = 7.3:1 20% Eq = 4:1 In a pot this size, that 7% margin of error can make a big difference. |
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