I thought this was supposed to be a good flop...

[mvoss]

Yeah I got that I just think they're a lot less similar than you think they are. Both eq. wise and with regard to how the hand will play out postflop.

[Oink]

Easy preflop raise IMO.

If BB folds Hero gets 3:1 on that extra bet and creates dead money in the pot.
If BB calls he gets 4:1 and considering he is 7.5:1 on hitting a set. That cant be anything but excellent


BTW, I seriously cant see why 99 is easier to play in a small pot and there is not a single post in this thread or any other thread that has presented convincing evidence that my mistakes will be smaller in a small pot.

Also, using the argument that raising will enhance my mistakes later on baffles me. Then dont make the mistakes! If you you make mistakes postflop with 99 you shouldnt stop raising it preflop, you should fix your postflop mistakes.

[Oink]

BTW

I just did a stove. It takes forever but it looks like Hero has 40% eq if BB folds. So his gain is

0.4*4 - 1 = 0.6 SB

If the pot ends up 5-way Hero will make someting like

0.36*5 - 1 = 0.8SB

Assuming Hero has 36% eq. (I just pulled that number out of my ass, but seems reasonable)

With all due respect, but if those numbers are correct I really cant see how a bigger pot will cost hero 0.6 or 0.8 SB postflop.

[Tryptamean]

hey wow, that like makes sense and stuff

[Apanage]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF is up with people and their "I don't want to raise preflop because a bad flop might come"???

Have you forgotten the really simple preflop fundamentals? You have a big eq. edge, just push it and move on to the interesting streets.

If you don't raise this preflop is it with the intention of checking and folding whenever an overcard falls? The hand doesn't become any easier to play by not raising preflop. Who the hell cares about fold equity, when you look down and see a hand like 99 one word should come to mind, VALUE!

[/ QUOTE ]

These discussions comes up all the time and every time most people miss out my point.
Being out of position has a cost and if we could calculate every single outcome postflop in this hand we could put a value on it.
It is my strong view that the cost of being OOP sometimes (call it negative implied odds if it feels more comfortable)is bigger than the hot-and cold EV we get by raising preflop.
If my opinion is right then a raise in some cases have negative EV even if the hot- and cold equity shows that we have a positive EV.


The by far most important reason to raise in limit holdem is to get fold equity either if it is instant (incredibly valuable) or delayed( valuable to a lesser extent). Raising for preflop value is far less important because the hand value changes drastically when the flop comes and all the big bets comes after that hand value changes.

I think that Honeybadgers comparison between AK IP against 22 OOP is relevant in this case also.
Reliable simulations says that a player with AK wins 59% of the money playing IP against a player with 22 OOP.

Which also means that separating preflop equity from the possibility to realize that equity is a questionable thing to do.
But there are many players here that think their postflop play never should influence their preflop decisions as long as the hand range stoving shows that they have an edge preflop. That is wrong IMO

And many of those is also nosebleeding from the blinds with figures between -0.15-0.21 from BB.

[mvoss]

I know being OOP has a cost, but it seems like you and HB thinks that we're all of a sudden gaining position by not raising, and we're not.

I still don't get how the comparison is relevant at all, these two situations have just about nothing in common!

Again I know that hot and cold preflop equity is not an exact measure of whether a hand is playable or not.

I have yet to see anyone including you post a WR from the blinds that was large enough that nobody could yell "sample size".

Edit: Also, take a look at Oinks numbers, do you seriously think that not raising preflop can make up for the value we miss by not raising, and don't forget that when we flop a big hand having build a big pot is pretty damn good.

[NinaWilliams]

To the people that say limping preflop makes it easier to play: you can still c/f the KJ6 flop.

[Apanage]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW

I just did a stove. It takes forever but it looks like Hero has 40% eq if BB folds. So his gain is

0.4*4 - 1 = 0.6 SB

If the pot ends up 5-way Hero will make someting like

0.36*5 - 1 = 0.8SB

Assuming Hero has 36% eq. (I just pulled that number out of my ass, but seems reasonable)

With all due respect, but if those numbers are correct I really cant see how a bigger pot will cost hero 0.6 or 0.8 SB postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always calculate BB:s so my figures were 0.1-0.3BB if Hero has 30-40% equity.So My SB numbers earlier in the thread were BB:s actually.

I think that Heros EV 5-way would be closer to 0.6 SB than 0.8 SB.

We have our differences about the cost of playing OOP. I think that the possibility of losing 0.6SB or more is a real threat when we have the initiative.
A bigger pot makes the loose players stay longer in the hand making our decision on turn much more difficult.
The bigger pot also makes it harder to get away from our hand. For example in the OP we are actually thinking of cold calling two on flop because of the size of the pot.

As you said in an earlier post if you play perfectly postflop this is not an issue. But I can certainly not play this hand perfectly OOP with the iniative and I´m certain that many more players finds that difficult

[Apanage]

[ QUOTE ]
I know being OOP has a cost, but it seems like you and HB thinks that we're all of a sudden gaining position by not raising, and we're not.

[/ QUOTE ]


If we believe that the cost of being OOP is bigger than our preflop equity then it is wrong to put in more money preflop
isn´t it?

[ QUOTE ]

I still don't get how the comparison is relevant at all, these two situations have just about nothing in common!

[/ QUOTE ]


No they don´t if you think that 99 has positive implied odds OOP when you preflop raise.

[Quote]
I have yet to see anyone including you post a WR from the blinds that was large enough that nobody could yell "sample size".

[/ QUOTE ]

I have played over 500 K which means that every blind has about 95K hands.
When you have about 30K hands from each position they start to converge within reasonable intervals. A -0.20 bb player is very likely to have a true interval between -0.15BB and -0.25BB.

[Leader]

Can you filter by 99 in the SB with 4 players seeing the flop when you haven't raised and then when you have and post the results?