How weak tight is this? tptk 3 bet pot

[Pete H]

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I think he has AA, KK or QQ. That's a pretty narrow range of hands, but they make the most sense.

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If you put him on that tight range, you have no business betting that flop.

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The QQ+ range was estimated _after_ opponent's all-in raise. As to the original question, no idea really, sorry, flip a coin? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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If his C/R range is that tight, his pf calling range is too tight (something like JJ+, AK) to bet that flop.

[cfb1739]

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Why are you betting the flop if you're folding to his C/R?

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Fear of a check raise should not stop me from trying to extract value from worse hands or winning the money that is already in the pot.

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What range did you put him on again? What worse hands do you think he'll call with?

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Also, since he can't have the ace of hearts, he would have needed to call my 3 bet pretty light in order to have a draw here. If he's been paying attention to me, then he shouldn't be doing this. However, I don't know that he's paying attention.

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Your Ah doesn't change much (besides giving you the backdoor NFD). I think a 19/15 is much more likely to have 76s than Axs on that kind of spot.

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Furthermore, he should be giving me credit for having hit this flop b/c of my tight image w/ respect to 3 betting. He should also expect to have very little fold equity here for the same reasons.

I think he has AA, KK or QQ. That's a pretty narrow range of hands, but they make the most sense.

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If you put him on that tight range, you have no business betting that flop. Check behind and keep the pot small or hit your backdoor flush.

If you think he could have a draw (as I expect), bet/call the flop.

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I put him on that range after I got check raised all in!

[ValarMorghulis]

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I put him on that range after I got check raised all in!

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So you think CO is going to c/call with all his worse hands and c/raise with all his better hands? Are his stats 60/5/0.5 or something.

I hate this hand. I have stats similar enough to CO and often call a 3bet planning to c/r AI on most flops. Villain will rarely be strong enough to call; it's even better if they bet/fold strong hands but most villain's aren't that bad.

[cfb1739]

If villain check raised all-in on a stone cold [censored] bluff, then he outplayed me and he deserves the pot.

I was thinking about some of the assumptions that I made when trying to put villain on a range of hands, and I've decided that they are not very good.

When analyzing this hand, I have been thinking about how villain SHOULD play given MY knowledge of my 3 betting range and player tendencies. Obviously, he doesn't know as much about my playing style as I do.

So when I say that I haven't been 3 betting light, although true, villain doesn't KNOW this. He also doesn't KNOW that it would be retarded to call my 3 bet with a certain range of hands.

In this particular case, he may think that I was 3 betting light simply because I did it from the button against his CO raise.

Additionally, while it may be really bad to call my 3 bet oop w/ medium suited connectors, I can not entirely eliminate these hands from villain's range because:

1) he may perceive me as 3 betting light, even though that isn't the case, and therefore be more inclined to call light

2) i've seen otherwise solid players do really stupid things sometimes

So I definitely think his 3 bet calling range can be pretty wide. Now he can have a number of different flush or straight draws (J10s) on the flop.

He also is certainly not calling a 3 bet w/ those drawing hands to fold when he flops a draw.

I should have called the check raise all-in. If villain had a very specific knowledge of my 3 betting range and tendencies, then I think the very narrow hand range that I had previously put him on would be close to correct.

However, I had not played w/ him prior to last night, so there is absolutely no way that he could have had that good of a read on me.

In fact, it's likely that he was multi-tabling and didn't even notice the fact that I had not been 3 betting light.

So, yeah, folding was pretty [censored] bad.

[ttgirl]

you 3bet a co range from the button, his range is alot wider than qq+ and you're only calling with 2pair + it looks like. you realize that this is his line with any straight draw, any pair, any flush draw, any set, probably air, and occasionally some lower pps, right? what more are u looking for with AK? you flopped tptk on a fairly draw heavy board. Folding this is just spewing money. Also, like someone said, dont bet so much if you plan on bet / folding.

[Nielsio]

Given that we have the ace of hearts I'm checking this flop behind because the only action I'm gonna get is when I'm beat.

If I check the flop atleast I give myself a chance to put in money while not behind.

[Ringmaster]

We're getting 2:1 on a call here, thus we need 33% equity vs villain's range to make a call correct. We almost have enough equity to call even if villain has a big hand here every time:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.016 secs 804,375 games/sec

Board: 2c Qh Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.138% 07.11% 22.03% 915 2835.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 70.862% 48.83% 22.03% 6285 2835.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

So we need at least 4% more equity to call. If we add a FD and an OESD to his range we get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

14,850 games 0.016 secs 928,125 games/sec

Board: 2c Qh Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.485% 15.39% 19.09% 2286 2835.00 { AhKs }
Hand 1: 65.515% 46.42% 19.09% 6894 2835.00 { QQ+, AKs, JcTc, 7h6h, AKo }

This gives us enough equity to make a call correct. The draws represent 2/15 hand combos, or ~13% of his range in this example.

What this means is if you think villain has a draw/air 13% or more of the time, then you should call. I think this is reasonable given it's CO vs BTN situation.