Bush will not retreat from Iraq

[Kaj]

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Is that the same democratically elected government of Maliki that many Congressmen now want replaced at America's whim?

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Yes. But note that Congressmen do not have the power to replace him at whim.

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Lol.

[Josem]

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EXCEPT IRAQ'S ALQAEDA DIDN'T EXIST UNTIL WE INVADED AND CREATED THE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO EMERGE -- AND NOW IT HAS GONE FROM NONEXISTENT TO KILLING AMERICAN SOLDIERS, CONTRACTORS, AND/OR PRO-WEST IRAQIS DAILY. TRY AGAIN WITH YOUR RATIONALE.

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So what? Even if what you say is true, it doesn't matter 'cause we're not debating what to do four years ago, we're debating what to do on the 29th of August 2007.

We've got the cards we've been dealt. So you have to make the best choice at this point in time. It's not a difficult concept to comprehend.

[Kaj]

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EXCEPT IRAQ'S ALQAEDA DIDN'T EXIST UNTIL WE INVADED AND CREATED THE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO EMERGE -- AND NOW IT HAS GONE FROM NONEXISTENT TO KILLING AMERICAN SOLDIERS, CONTRACTORS, AND/OR PRO-WEST IRAQIS DAILY. TRY AGAIN WITH YOUR RATIONALE.

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So what? Even if what you say is true, it doesn't matter 'cause we're not debating what to do four years ago, we're debating what to do on the 29th of August 2007.

We've got the cards we've been dealt. So you have to make the best choice at this point in time. It's not a difficult concept to comprehend.

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Apparently it is a difficult concept for you. The longer we stay there (and have stayed there), the worse the terrorist situation becomes by our presence. We weren't "dealt" this hand -- we dealt it ourselves, with the cards face up.

[Josem]

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The longer we stay there (and have stayed there), the worse the terrorist situation becomes by our presence.

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I'm not convinced this is right - the surge is "making real progress" as even senior US Democrats are admitting.

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We weren't "dealt" this hand -- we dealt it ourselves, with the cards face up.

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...which is entirely irrelevant to the question of where to go from now.


Do you seriously believe that Iraqis will be better off if the US forces started withdrawing today?

[John Kilduff]

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Do you seriously believe that Iraqis will be better off if the US forces started withdrawing today?


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Believe it or not, I actually agree with you that the Iraqis will not be better off tomorrow if U.S. forces start withdrawing today. A civil war might likely ensue (or it might even be underway already, just a bit muted for now).

I also think that Iran will move into the po;itical power vacuum if the U.S. withdraws, and that Iraq might even end up becoming a sort of vassal state or proxy state of Iran, some kind of extension of Iran's theocracy (Iran is very hip to working through proxies, and very accomplished at it as well). Obviously, we don't want that.

The wrinkle in the above reasoning is that those things are likely to be the case whenever the U.S. withdraws: this year, next year, next decade.

Whenever the U.S. withdraws, Iraqi internal tensions will likely explode. So, the U.S. must stay in Iraq indefinitely, right? What do you think about staying there forever?

There is no evidence that the Iraqis themselves are any closer to getting things under control in their own country now, compared to two years ago. There is also no evidence that the Shi'ites and Sunnis have any intentions of forgetting their differences, and their power struggles, in order to just get along. So saying that that is what can and should happen is irrelevant. "Should" is an extraneous word in this situation.

The Shi'ites and Sunnis don't want to just get along with each other, and that isn't going to change based on what the U.S. does or does not do. It's been that way for OVER A THOUSAND YEARS. Did George Bush do something magical or find the long lost crystal ball of Merlin the Magician? What makes anyone think the Sunnis and Shi'ites will just now decide that they really want to get along after all, and that the last 1000+ years was all just a great big misunderstanding?

In my opinion, Iraq needs partitioning along ethnic lines - and fast. That might have the best chance of averting a civil war. But America telling them they ought to play nice, share power and get along with each other isn't going to suffice.

Thanks for reading.

[Josem]

Thanks, John, for writing one of the best posts advocating a withdrawal of Coalition troops from Iraq. In contrast to others, it actually rises above the simplistic catchphrases and actually addresses the consequences of the reality we now face.

Essentially, our disagreement comes down to a differing belief in whether Iraqi society is improving, and likely to improve in the future.

Of course, this is a judgement call, and I'm not so pig headed as to totally dismiss the possibility that my judgement is wrong. I guess we'll find out either way in the future.

[John Kilduff]

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Thanks, John, for writing one of the best posts advocating a withdrawal of Coalition troops from Iraq. In contrast to others, it actually rises above the simplistic catchphrases and actually addresses the consequences of the reality we now face.

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Thank you also for your thoughtful posts in this thread.

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Essentially, our disagreement comes down to a differing belief in whether Iraqi society is improving, and likely to improve in the future.

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Yes...the thing that bothers me though, is not the fact that many seem to have "faith" that those good things will occur, but that most seem willing to have that faith on a completely open-ended basis, indefinitely. Let me ask you, if two more years should come to pass without substantive further progress in Iraq's capacity for self-government, what would you think then?

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Of course, this is a judgement call, and I'm not so pig headed as to totally dismiss the possibility that my judgement is wrong. I guess we'll find out either way in the future.

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I see it that way too...and "find out in the future" implies that if there is no great improvement for...~x years...then the experiment will have to be judged a failure at that point...won't it? What x years might be remains a mystery, but I don't think we can have an eternal commitment to keep the peace between the Shi'ites and Sunnis in Iraq...can we? I really don't see how.

[boracay]

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and the same poll says 91% of iraqis wants a withdraw within 2 years, while only 9% want to only reduce US-led forces as the security situation improves.

Another question in the same poll: Do you think the US military in Iraq is currently:
- 21% a stabilizing force
- 78% provoking more conflict than it is preventing

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claiming that 91% of iraqis want troops out within 2 years, and then arguing that we should remove troops immediately, is silly.

in that poll, respondents could say that they wanted troops out within a variety of different time frames.

a respondent who says that they don't want troops out within 3 months, but wants them out in a year, is obviously not someone who thinks troops should be withdrawn as soon as possible.

don't try to frame it like that.

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then we should try it the otherwise i guess.

would it be ok to say, that according to poll, only 9% of iraqis support the idea US-led forces should stay in iraq after 2 years.

by reading a poll one might get an idea it would be good to determine a timetable for withdraw. of course you can't expect that from this administration, since they would occupy iraq for another 50 years at least.

[Moseley]

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I'm not convinced this is right - the surge is "making real progress" as even senior US Democrats are admitting.

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We can't sustain the surge without the draft. The generals say we cannot extend the tour of soldiers beyond 15 months without dire consequences.

Are you ready to sign up for your draft card? Canada won't take you in this time.

[Moseley]

The Bush Administration has gotten us into a real quagmire, just like Rumsfeld predicted when serving under Cowboy I.

The military industrial machine is laughing all the way to the bank.