OT: Prop Bet for Collin Moshman

[pifhluk]

[ QUOTE ]
i'll lay 1k, i can do over 20%roi over 1k sng's at the $16's level. i'm over 30% in my last 600.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope this is a joke and I am being leveled.

[darom03]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
STTF: Where our dicks and ROIs both measure in double digits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also have a limp ROI [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait a minute... did your avatar just blink at me? No, I guess not... Yes, there it is again!

You kinky lad, you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Ditch Digger]

[ QUOTE ]
Collin, I call [censored] on you doing better than 10% at $500 sngs. If you meant you knew 3 people or more, personally, who do it, post their names or retract the statement.
And no, Party Poker stats from one year ago or older do NOT count.

************* PROP BET CHALLENGE ************


Collin, I will lay 10k dollars that you couldn't play 1k, 200 dollar or higher buyin 9 man sngs on Stars or Full Tilt, in one month and show a 5% ROI or greater before rakeback.

This is a boost of 5% to whatever existing ROI you have, so this should make it worth your while. FWIW, I think joe or Z32 could knock this challenge out in 2 weeks. It is only open to you.

This challenge is open for the next 2 months.

You need to stop miseducating people about SNGs.

On a separate note, I bought your book a few weeks ago and what I have read is pretty good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like the way you've formatted it and a lot of the advice I have thought for quite a while but never seen in print.
I also disagree with a good bit of it.
For someone new to SNGs, I think it will help a lot.

I know this seems like a weird place for a compliment, but I felt I should balance things out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be shocked if he accepted. 4 tabling it would take a solid month to do this.

[JoeSchmo]

I missed the Moshman statement about him making 10% at the high buyins. Anyone have a link? I'm assuming his statement pertains to the old Party games. If not, I agree with OP here.

As for the bet, I think betting against just about anyone is probably +EV. I sharkscoped 3 of the best big buyin players on stars and FT: z32, gramps and bigjoe. Over a sample of just over 30K games (all buyins $200+), they are making an average of $7.88 per game. I think the great majority of these games is post-Party.

Obviously they make tons in FPP/rakeback etc and this is not a knock on them. Just a testament to how difficult these games are.

[blackize]

[ QUOTE ]

I missed the Moshman statement about him making 10% at the high buyins. Anyone have a link? I'm assuming his statement pertains to the old Party games. If not, I agree with OP here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he has said that because of writing taking up all his time, he hasn't played much in a year.

[Rhett]

Exactly why do party poker stats from a year ago not count?

First of all, 10% ROI at the $500 sngs a year ago on party poker is still pretty darn impressive in my mind. Certainly, that qualifies someone to write a book on SNG's.

Also, he almost certainly started writing his manuscript more than a year ago, so exactly when was Colin supposed to have time to crush the stars sngs, which is not something he ever claimed to do in the first place?

[ QUOTE ]
Collin, I call [censored] on you doing better than 10% at $500 sngs. If you meant you knew 3 people or more, personally, who do it, post their names or retract the statement.
And no, Party Poker stats from one year ago or older do NOT count./quote]

[MadScientist]

IF He had a 10% ROI at the 500s on party, OVER A SIGNIFICANT SAMPLE SIZE, that would be impressive.
The issue is this: it is much harder now.
Not everyone can beat the 200s for reasonable money. His advice about making a career out of sngs and moving up stakes is suspect because I don't think he understands the state of the games today.

[citanul]

Everyone,

Amongst the things to consider is that there are fairly accurate datamines of the party 500 sngs, and there were very, very, very few people who beat them for 10%+, if any. Since we know who Joe, Newt, Gramps, etc are, we can eliminate certain names off the list. One would like to eliminate people who are russian and from russia, and such, since Collin doesn't seem like a russian guy, but even if you don't, it seems most likely that either he was "Crushing" these games over tiny samples, or that he is incorrectly stating his results. Personally I'd put my money on tiny sample over anything else.

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone,

Amongst the things to consider is that there are fairly accurate datamines of the party 500 sngs, and there were very, very, very few people who beat them for 10%+, if any. Since we know who Joe, Newt, Gramps, etc are, we can eliminate certain names off the list. One would like to eliminate people who are russian and from russia, and such, since Collin doesn't seem like a russian guy, but even if you don't, it seems most likely that either he was "Crushing" these games over tiny samples, or that he is incorrectly stating his results. Personally I'd put my money on tiny sample over anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has stated that he's mostly 2-4 tabled. Given that he's posted his screennames and nobody recognized them, I'd imagine he was just an occassional player in those games.

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I'd put my money on tiny sample over anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that people overstate their results fairly consistently. I don't know why (as I am certain that people do not always do it deliberately) but many people's brains seem to simply not work correctly when considering their results at this game.

Lying is too strong a word to describe what happens. I think they may genuinely believe what they say, but simply don't realise that they are wrong.