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#21
08-15-2007, 05:26 PM
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Re: NL100: A good hand on a scary board by the river...
I'm surprised by some of the responses here, and I can confirm it was no difficult decision for me: I checked. sure, it's only $13, but poker isn't about money, it's about good decisions.
I propose a theorem on this: if you have position on the river, and you are either WA/WB, then prefer to check it down, and the more you have behind, the more you should prefer to check it down. Basically, even if your hand is good and you're last to act on the river, you need to balance extraction value against risk. If you have the nuts, then it's no longer about risk, it's about how much more can you take, but as soon as you haven't got the nuts, you need to balance extraction value against chance someone else is slowplaying a better hand given the action so far, and also the way the flop, turn and particularly river landed and played out. In NL, it is always possible you're being slowplayed, especially if you've shown strength initially. My thinking in a spot like this is: 1) Am I likely to get paid off by weaker hands? 2) If I'm played back at, can I fight back, or can I fold happily? I think here the answer to (1) is no, I severely doubt I'd extract anything other than a nominal amount. 2) No I couldn't comfortably fight back, but it would depend on the size of the raise I'd have to call. similarly, I'd be pissed off about folding. Thoughts? 
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#25
08-15-2007, 09:58 PM
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Re: NL100: A good hand on a scary board by the river...
Honestly, I think there is a thin value bet here. No hand with a 7 is going to pass up a value bet on the river and no hand with a 5 is going to check-raise fearing the 7. If we get check-raise bluffed, well, that guys got heart.
So, we will pay off a small number of hands with a 5. We will get calls from some A high hands, straights and lesser flushes. I think, on balance, it's a bet. Finally, the stack depth actually protects us from a check raise somewhat. A pot sized check-raise leaves us with a big bet behind. We hold the threat of the last big bet. If a 5 check-raises us, again, that guys got heart. Tip your hat to him.
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#26
08-16-2007, 12:30 AM
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Re: NL100: A good hand on a scary board by the river...
Grunch...
I would bet for value.
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#27
08-16-2007, 12:39 AM
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Re: NL100: A good hand on a scary board by the river...
Reading replies now...
Worse hands will call, esp lower flushes and A high*. You won't get called often, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't bet for that the rare instance when someone does call with A high. If you get get c/r can you fold happily? Well, first off, that will almost never happen imo. Any boat would have bet given the action up until the river. And if you happen to get c/r then yes, you can fold happily. * People love to call with A high...from today: Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) Hero (SB): $396.00 BB: $370.10 UTG: $241.80 CO: $851.30 BTN: $870.60 Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $4.00, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $20.00 Flop: ($52) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $70.00</font>, UTG calls $50.00 Turn: ($192) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $192.00</font>, UTG calls all-in for $147.80 Uncalled bet of $44.20 returned to Hero River: ($487.60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In) Pot Size: $487.60 ($3 Rake) UTG had T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Twos) and WON (+$0.50) Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Twos) and WON (+$0.50)
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#28
08-16-2007, 12:47 AM
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Re: NL100: A good hand on a scary board by the river...
Lesse.
- Limped pot. - You don't have the nuts. Or close to it. - SB has literally any 2. - MP can have close to any 2, but juding by limp + flop bet + turn n river shutodwn probably has 65s bc SCs are AWESOME. But you have him beat anyway. - You have no info and no idea where you are. Bet/folding is just as good as checking here bc people don't fold flushes however. Just because you *should* be beat doesn't mean you are. Make 'em prove it.
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#29
08-16-2007, 11:05 AM
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Re: NL100: A good hand on a scary board by the river...
[ QUOTE ]
Reading replies now... Worse hands will call, esp lower flushes and A high*. You won't get called often, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't bet for that the rare instance when someone does call with A high. If you get get c/r can you fold happily? Well, first off, that will almost never happen imo. Any boat would have bet given the action up until the river. And if you happen to get c/r then yes, you can fold happily. * People love to call with A high...from today: Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) Hero (SB): $396.00 BB: $370.10 UTG: $241.80 CO: $851.30 BTN: $870.60 Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $4.00, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $20.00 Flop: ($52) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $70.00</font>, UTG calls $50.00 Turn: ($192) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $192.00</font>, UTG calls all-in for $147.80 Uncalled bet of $44.20 returned to Hero River: ($487.60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In) Pot Size: $487.60 ($3 Rake) UTG had T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Twos) and WON (+$0.50) Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Twos) and WON (+$0.50) [/ QUOTE ] donk, how often are you playing your PF overcard hands like this on a paired flop? i can imagine it is a strong line if you have some read about the villain. would you ever pull this against an unknown? i also feel that too often it gets checked through, and that villain catches something on the turn and calls my turn and river bets.
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