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#21
08-14-2007, 02:42 PM
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Re: so effing sick
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why would you ever think of folding here? [/ QUOTE ] please enlighten me as to what makes this an auto call? [/ QUOTE ] the narrowness of the range of hands that beat you, and how unlikely it is that he'd have those in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] More unlikely than him having the hands that beat me? Is he more likely to overshove w/ AJ/J9 or KT? 
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#22
08-14-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: so effing sick
I like 3 betting on the turn. I really can't see him showing up with AJ here, or J9. If he has KK so be it. He raised in hand 2 with middle pair after a flush and over hit. This turn raise could be a lot of stuff.
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#23
08-14-2007, 03:07 PM
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Re: so effing sick
you have to put him on specifically J9 or AJ here to fold...
the flush is a brick card because if he has a flush it was because he was floating with AJss or j9ss and backdoored it anyway. Hes not raising the turn with other spades, at least i dont think he is. so its J9 AJ or a hand you beat. 2 pr, lower set, air because it def looks like u trying to play pot control by not 3balling turn and not get a huge pot here. just my 2c. sure he def has j9/AJ here sometimes, but we getting just about 2:1 and i dunno if he has those hands >60% of the time.
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#25
08-14-2007, 10:41 PM
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Re: so effing sick
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why would you ever think of folding here? [/ QUOTE ] please enlighten me as to what makes this an auto call? [/ QUOTE ] the narrowness of the range of hands that beat you, and how unlikely it is that he'd have those in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] More unlikely than him having the hands that beat me? Is he more likely to overshove w/ AJ/J9 or KT? [/ QUOTE ] not KT, but you really underrepped your hand here, so he could be doing this for value with KQ, and obv 44/TT. And a bluff if he doesn't think you can call with AK.
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#28
08-16-2007, 01:52 AM
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Re: so effing sick
Definitely not folding. Based on how he played that pair of 8's like a maniac, I would expect him to be valuestacking himself with AK, two pair, or a smaller set... like a lot.
This guy is the reason you're sitting at a deep table, so bust his ass.
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#29
08-18-2007, 03:45 PM
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Re: so effing sick
i like your play up till the river. shoving turn with these stacks probably makes life for him a little too easy. the pot isn't QUITE big enough relative to stacks to make taking it down/avoiding errors a complete priority yet.
i would call river for a number of reasons. 1) small turn raises followed by overbet river shoves are rarely the goods. people who slowplay (raising turn small is a form of slowplaying) tend to also make callable bets. inconsistent play is more likely to be a bluff than a made hand. i think most of us have witnessed this... 2) he has already shown the capability to turn made hands into bluffs (see J8 hand). i could try to examine this further but it's hard to tell if this is a deliberate calculated knowledge that the EV of bluffing with KT (once called on the turn) is higher than checking behind, if he's completely overplaying two pair or if he's just a random reckless mongoloid. 3) sets are really pretty hands
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